Spotlight - Jurgen Klopp v Brendan Rodgers...  

Thursday 15th October 2015

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

• In the spotlight...
• Jurgen Klopp v Brendan Rodgers...
• 14 pts profit from Palace...
• Jamie Vardy – top of the Anytime Scorer charts...

In the spotlight...

Welcome to the first ever Prem10 Spotlight email – a new midweek feature where we’ll be taking a look at some of the key stats and moneymaking trends from across the Premier League.

The focus is on numbers – no Talksport gossip or back-page of the newspaper hype here.

The idea is to discover a few betting gems along the way, pointing out little-known patterns, statistics, team trends and betting markets where we can get the edge on the bookies.

All this additional research and data-probing will help us latch on to bets that may go on to feature in our Weekend Picks email and analysis every Friday, before each round of games.

Time to strap on our head-torches, in search of some gold...

Jurgen Klopp v Brendan Rodgers...

Liverpool have a new manager and it just so happens that his first game in charge is live on BT Sport on Saturday lunchtime – Tottenham v Liverpool.

Jurgen Klopp is the man in question, and we are led to believe Klopp’s brand of ‘gegenpressing’ football will be installed at Anfield as it was at Borussia Dortmund...

“Fundamentally, gegenpressing is a rather simple tactical approach: A team simply plays at full pace for 90 minutes, approaching every moment as though they are down a goal late in a major final. After losing possession, players will swarm their opponents, giving them no time on the ball regardless of position and location.”
Source: Bleacher Report.com

That ‘full pace’ bit sounds something like Luis Suarez-era Liverpool to me – so I thought I’d take a look at Liverpool’s stats under previous manager Brendan Rodgers, and Dortmund’s stats under Klopp, to see if that swashbuckling approach resulted in a particularly high number of payouts in the Goals markets...

The findings paint quite an evenly matched picture:

Those stats suggest we might not see too much of a difference from Liverpool in the Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals markets under Klopp.

But – as when any new manager joins a club – we’ll need to keep a close eye on the stats to see what changes and what develops...

For example, when Tony Pulis took over at West Brom he turned them into a great bet for Under 2.5 Goals and Clean Sheets. While Alan Pardew has so far turned Crystal Palace into a winning machine since taking over in January...

14 pts profit from Palace...

In recent weeks we’ve looked at Crystal Palace’s stats, centring around the Half Time and Goal Time numbers...

• Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 7 out of 8 Palace games so far

• Half Time Draw bets have also paid out in 7 out of 8 games

• And the Second Half has been the Highest Scoring Half in 7 of Palace’s 8 Premier League games, too

All those trends offer payouts in 50/50 markets where we’ll usually be getting odds around the Even Money (2.00) mark.

And those figures also point us in the direction of some bigger price payouts...

• Half Time – Draw/ Full Time – Palace bets have paid out in 4 of their 8 games

• Following Palace with that Draw/ Win option in the Half Time/ Full Time market in every game to level stakes at average odds of 9/2 (5.50) has produced 14 pts profit for a 175% Return on Investment (ROI) so far

That’s a great strike rate for a bet at average odds of 9/2, and I’ll be keeping an eye out for opportunities like these with our bigger-price Value Picks throughout the season. This week’s Picks email will be with you by 2.00pm on Friday.

Jamie Vardy – top of the Anytime Scorer charts...

Onto the Scorer markets now, and there’s a surprise early leader in the Premier League Top Scorer chart...

Leicester’s Jamie Vardy is top of the tree with 7 goals from 8 games so far. Vardy is currently 25/1 to be Top Scorer – he was 10 times that price at the start of the season, at 250/1.

• Two of our Prem10 preseason Each Way Picks are doing okay so far – 66/1 (67.00) Graziano Pelle is joint-3rd Top Scorer with 5 goals and is now a 25/1 (26.00) shot at best. And 20/1 (21.00) Alexis Sanchez is also on 5 goals and is now second favourite in the betting at 7/1 (8.00), behind Sergio Aguero on 6 goals, who is the 6/4 (2.50) favourite

A long, long way to go yet as far as Top Scorer betting is concerned – but on a week to week basis the stats on your Prem10 website can help us find Anytime Scorer and First Scorer payouts...

• James Vardy is currently joint-top in the Premier League for the most First Scorer payouts – 3 times from 8 games. Backing Vardy First Scorer in every game to level stakes at average odds of 7/1 (8.00) has produced 16 pts profit for a 200% ROI

• Vardy is the outright leader for Anytime Scorer bets, with a highly impressive 6 payouts from 8 games. Backing Vardy Anytime Scorer in every game at average odds of 2/1 (3.00) has produced 10 pts profit for a 125% ROI

Vardy is definitely on the radar for our Value Picks right now.

You can view Player and Scorer stats on the Team Stats page on our website, to find out which players are providing the most Anytime Scorer and First Scorer bets for all 20 teams.

For example:

Team Stats page for Leicester City, at www.Prem10.co.uk:

We’ll also soon be adding a leader-board ranking the top players in those Scorer markets across the Premier League as a whole.

That’s all from me for today. Plenty of intriguing stats and bet pointers there, and I’ll be in touch by 2.00pm tomorrow with your Weekend Picks email – highlighting the standout stats and betting opportunities for this week’s games...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk