Weekend Picks - champions Chelsea to do it again...
Friday 16th October 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Premier League - Week 9...
- Stats You Need To Know - standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks - recommended bets...
- Including 11/4 for the Top Scorer in the league...
Welcome to your Prem10 Weekend Preview...
All eyes will be on the dugout on Saturday lunchtime – with new Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp taking charge of his first game, away at Tottenham...
With that fixture in mind I’ve taken a look at some historical ‘new manager’ stats in today’s analysis – see below.
In terms of betting opportunities the stats point us elsewhere this week, namely to Southampton and to Chelsea, where some of the best Goals trends in the league look well set-up to continue.
How your Prem10 service works:
- We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets
- I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Team and Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
We’ll kick off with the champions Chelsea – who have one of the strongest betting trends around right now...
Chelsea v Aston Villa – Total Goals
- Chelsea are the top-rated team for Over 2.5 Goals bets – paying out in 7 out of 8 games (88%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Villa’s last 3 Away games
- Chelsea have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their 8 games
- Villa have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of the last 9 meetings between Chelsea and Villa
These sides have kept just one Clean Sheet between them this season, and there’s a history of goals in this fixture...
Chelsea are just 4/11 (1.36) to win the game despite registering just 2 wins from 8 games so far – you’d have made more money backing Over 2.5 Goals and this looks a good match-up for another payout. Best price 17/25 (1.68) with Marathonbet or 4/6 (1.67) with BetVictor. See Stats Picks below. |
Tottenham v Liverpool (TV) – Match Result
- Tottenham are 2nd in the Premier League Last 6 Form table – W3 D3 L0
- Liverpool are 15th in the Last 6 Form table – W1 D3 L2
- Liverpool have won each of the last 5 meetings v Tottenham – by an aggregate score of 18-4
- Liverpool haven’t won their first Premier League game under any of their last four new managers
A mixture of past & present stats here but with this being the big TV game of the weekend, I wanted to take a look at the figures....
The ‘New Manager Effect’ of starting with a win hasn’t been in evidence at Liverpool for the last 15 years or so, but the historical head to head does suggest Tottenham are a decent first opponent for new manager Jurgen Klopp. The bookies make this a close one on paper with Spurs 6/4 (2.50) to win, Liverpool 2/1 (3.00) and the draw 12/5 (3.34). No bet – but one to watch on Saturday lunchtime for sure.
Watford v Arsenal (TV) – Total Goals
- Watford are the top-rated team in the Premier League for Under 2.5 Goals bets - paying out in 6 out of 8 games overall (75%) and in all 4 of their Home games (100%)
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 2 of Arsenal’s 4 Away games
- Watford have conceded just 1 goal in total in 4 Home games
- Watford and Arsenal are joint-top for Least Goals Conceded this season, averaging just 0.88 Goals Against per game
Watford’s stats in particular make a case for Under 2.5 Goals here. They are certainly keeping it tight at the back so far with the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League...
Under 2.5 Goals looks a decent enough price at 6/5 (2.20) this weekend but Arsenal’s recent scoring exploits put me off a bet – Arsenal put 3 past Man Utd last time out and hit 5 at Leicester the week before that, with Alexis Sanchez accounting for 5 of those 8 goals. No bet.
Swansea v Stoke (TV) – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 8 Swansea games (100%)
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 out of 8 Stoke games (63%)
- Swansea Home games are averaging 5.3 Total Cards
- Stoke Away games are averaging 3.0 Total Cards
This game makes the shortlist due to Swansea’s 100% Over 3.5 Cards record. That bet is available at 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365, but this doesn’t look the right fixture to follow that trend in...
Stoke are actually the joint best-behaved side in the Premier League this season (least amount of Cards For), and although Swansea’s games have consistently gone ‘Over,’ Swansea themselves have yet to get the Most Cards/ Booking Points in a game. Also, match Referee Robert Madley is only running at a 50% rate for Over 3.5 Cards games this season. No bet.
Crystal Palace v West Ham – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – AFTER 27th Minute bets have paid out in 7 out of 8 Palace games (88%)
- Time of First Goal – BEFORE 27th Minute bets have paid out in 7 out of 8 West Ham games
- Bets on the Half Time Draw have paid out in 7 out of 8 Palace games – but in just 1 out of 8 West Ham games
- Highest Scoring Half – Second Half bets have paid out in 7 out of 8 Palace games – but in just 1 out of 8 West Ham games
Contrasting stats here, with the Time of First Goal Before/ After stats cancelling themselves out...
It’s worth noting that although Palace’s last 6 games have all been 0-0 at Half Time, none of them have gone on to end goalless – and neither side has had a 0-0 all season. That suggests there will be goals here but in terms of how many, and when the goals may come, the stats don’t paint a clear enough picture to warrant a bet. No bet.
Southampton v Leicester – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 4 Southampton Home games (100%), and 75% overall
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 out of 8 Leicester games (75%)
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester games
- Southampton have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games
- Leicester have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 games
The stats suggest another flurry of goals here – this game features three of the current top six scorers in the Premier League (Pelle for Southampton, Vardy & Mahrez for Leicester). Leicester boss Ranieri has promised to take his team out for pizza if they can keep Clean Sheet – but it hasn’t happened yet...
Over 2.5 Goals is a best price 5/6 (1.83) with Marathonbet, 4/5 (1.80) Betfred, BetVictor, Skybet, Stan James. See Stats Picks below. |
Southampton v Leicester – Anytime Scorer
- Jamie Vardy is joint-top in the Premier League for the most First Scorer payouts – 3 times from 8 games. Backing Vardy First Scorer in every game to level stakes at average odds of 7/1 (8.00) has produced 16 pts profit for a 200% ROI
- Vardy is the outright leader for Anytime Scorer bets, with a highly impressive 6 payouts from 8 games. Backing Vardy Anytime Scorer in every game at average odds of 2/1 (3.00) has produced 10 pts profit for a 125% ROI
- Vardy has scored in 5 consecutive Premier League games
As mentioned above there are three prominent scorers on show in this game, but on recent form and at the prices available, Leicester’s Jamie Vardy is the standout player for an Anytime Scorer bet. He’s landed 5 payouts in a row in the Premier League and has also been on penalty-taking duty (scored 2 so far)...
Vardy can be backed this weekend at better than the average odds of 2/1 (3.00) quoted above – Vardy Anytime Scorer is a best price 11/4 (3.75) with Boylesports and Betfair Sportsbook. See Value Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Chelsea v Aston Villa – Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/25 (1.68) with Marathonbet
- Southampton v Leicester – Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (1.83) with Marathonbet
Value Picks – the pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Southampton v Leicester – Anytime Scorer – Jamie Vardy @ 11/4 (3.75) with Boylesports
Latest Premier League odds here |
P.S
For more on Jurgen Klopp, and a deeper look at Crystal Palace’s Half Time and Goal Time trends, check out yesterday’s Prem10 – Spotlight email on our website.
Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with a review of all the latest stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
