Spotlight - don't fall for the 'Home Win' trick...

Wednesday 16th December 2015

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

• Don’t fall for the ‘Home Win’ trick...
• Home teams don’t always win the Most Corners...
• Away teams don’t always get the Most Bookings...
• Coming up on Friday...

More reasons to avoid Home Win bets...

Last weekend’s Premier League results gave us the latest in a long line of ‘shock’ score-lines this season...

Bournemouth’s 2-1 win over Man Utd may have grabbed the headlines – but in terms of the prices involved, two Home results provided the biggest surprises.

Man Utd were 11/8 (2.38) to win – so not exactly ‘banker’ material at those odds – with the Bournemouth win a 2/1 (3.00) shot.

• Liverpool however were odds-on at just 2/5 (1.40) for the Home Win v West Brom, but ended up snatching a 2-2 draw in injury time. The Draw was 10/3 (4.33)

• And at pretty much the same time in London on Sunday afternoon, pre-match 2/5 (1.40) favourites Tottenham conceded a late goal to lose 2-1 at Home to 7/1 (8.00) underdogs Newcastle

Those results and prices are a further warning to stay away from Home Win bets at short prices.

Here at Prem10 we primarily target alternative markets to the common Match Result and Home Win markets. Looking to a broader range of betting options – with our unique Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points betting stats as our guide...

The ‘Home team bias’ can come into play on any market. But the stats allow us to identify teams that can’t be trusted at Home – and to zoom in on standout teams that can provide us with betting opportunities at value prices...

With all this in mind, two questions provide the starting point for our Spotlight feature today:

Do Home teams usually win the Most Corners?

Do Away teams usually receive the Most Bookings?

In terms of identifying the opportunities where we may be able to get a value price, it can pay to look for teams that are bucking the general Home/ Away trends outlined in the tables below. Teams that are performing above or below average in certain departments...

The thinking being that such teams may see ‘Home team bias’ incorrectly applied to the prices available for Most Corners and Most Bookings markets for their games.

In the Spotlight:

It pays to look beyond ‘Home team bias’...

I’ve compiled the Home & Away figures for Most Corners, Most Bookings and Match Results for the season to date below – with a total of 160 Premier League games played so far.

The findings provide us with a shortlist of profitable teams to look out for...

Most Corners:

The numbers show that Home teams are winning the Most Corners in exactly half of Premier League games this season...

But these teams are bucking the trends...

Home teams significantly underperforming compared to the average:

• Swansea are the only team yet to win the Most Corners in a Home game (0 out of 8). Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 6 out of 8 Swansea Home games (75%). Recent example: Bournemouth were 6/5 (2.20) underdogs to win Most Corners at Swansea – and landed that bet, winning 5 corners to Swansea’s 4
  
  
• Newcastle have won the Most Corners in just 1 of 8 Home games. With opponents landing that bet in 5 of those 8 games (63%)
  
  
• Sunderland, Aston Villa and Chelsea have all won the Most Corners in just 2 out of 8 Home games respectively

Away teams significantly outperforming the Premier League average:

• Tottenham have won Most Corners in 6 out of 7 Away games (86%)
  
  
• Man Utd have won Most Corners in 6 out of 9 Away games (67%)

Most Booking Points:

The numbers show that Away teams are receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Points more often than Home teams...

But these teams are bucking the trends...

Home teams significantly outperforming the average:

• Southampton have received the Most Booking Points in 6 of their 8 Home games (75%). At average odds of 3/1 (4.00), backing Southampton to level stakes at Home has produced 16 pts profit for a 200% Return on Investment
  
  
• Man City have received the Most Booking Points in 5 of their 9 Home games (56%). At average odds of 3/1 (4.00), backing Man City to level stakes at Home has produced 11 pts profit for a 122% Return on Investment

Away teams significantly underperforming compared to the Premier League average:

• Arsenal have received the Most Booking Points in just 1 of their 9 Away games (11%)
  
  
• Swansea have only received Most Bookings in 1 of 8 Away games (13%), and Bournemouth in just 2 of 8 Away (25%)

Match Results:

The numbers show only a slight bias towards Home Wins...

Three teams standout against the overall numbers...

Home teams significantly underperforming compared to the average:

• Aston Villa are the only team in the Premier League that haven’t won any of their Home games (0 out of 8). Bets on opponents to win at Villa have paid out 6 times out of 8 (75%). Backing Away teams to win at Villa this season has produced 6.76 pts profit for an 85% ROI

Away teams significantly outperforming the Premier League average:

• Arsenal have won 6 of their 9 Away games (67%). Backing the Arsenal Away Win this season has produced 3.26 pts profit for a 36% ROI
  
  
• Leicester have won 5 of their 8 Away games (63%). Backing the Leicester Away Win this season has produced 3.57 pts profit for a 45% ROI 

The moral of the story is...

The findings tell us that, for the Premier League overall, bets on Home teams to win the Most Corners (50%) pay out more often than backing the Match Result Home Win (38%).

And purely on the numbers, Away teams currently provide more Most Bookings payouts (46%) than Away Wins (34%) or successful Away Most Corners bets (36%).

But there’s more to life than averages...

The key benefit of the overall Premier League figures is that they provide us with a benchmark to measure individual teams against.

When it comes to making money, we want to focus on the teams that are bucking any overall trends or assumptions. And therefore, may be available at a value price in certain games against certain opponents.

We had a great example of this last week when Man City were priced up at 3/1+ to land the Most Bookings bet at Home v Swansea...

Our Disciplinary stats said there was no reason that Man City should be a such a large price for the Most Bookings. Other than, that is, the ‘David v Goliath,’ top half of the table v bottom half nature of the fixture... with Man City having the assumed advantage of playing at Home...

• Man City were 1/3 (1.33) in the Match Result market and just about landed those short odds, scoring in injury time with a deflected strike to win 2-1

• Whereas in the Most Cards/ Booking Points market, Man City were 3/1+ (4.00+) and landed that bet with 3 Yellow Cards to Swansea’s 1 (30 pts to 10 pts)

The findings outlined above give us a list of a dozen or so teams to keep in mind for our bets this weekend and in the weeks ahead.

Teams such as Man City and Southampton for the Most Bookings... or Swansea and Chelsea for the Most Corners... who may be wrongly treated with ‘Home team bias’ by the markets, and therefore – available for us to target at value prices.

Coming up on Friday...

I’ll be applying those findings – and much more besides – in your weekend preview email on Friday. Including my Weekend Picks ­where we’ll once again be targeting the best value prices for the standout stats on show.

The likes of Southampton v Tottenham, Swansea v West Ham and Arsenal v Man City could all feature. Let’s see what the markets come up with...

Your email will be with you by 2.00pm on Friday.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk