An encouraging start for the stats...
Monday 17th August 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- An encouraging start for the stats...
- What the stats say after Week Two...
- Monday Night Football – Liverpool v Bournemouth...
- Coming up this week...
An encouraging start for the stats...
We’re only two weeks into the 2015/16 Premier League season, but it’s good to see some of last season’s most reliable trends continuing...
We kicked off our match betting with two winning Stats Picks over the weekend (see below).
In fact, all four of the ‘stats trends’ mentioned in Friday’s preview email continued over the weekend, and while the Match Result markets once again proved unpredictable – there were encouraging signs for us in the stats-based markets...
Swansea 2 Newcastle 0 – Team with Most Bookings:
I ruled out a bet on Newcastle to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points, on the grounds that Newcastle’s first Away game under new manager Steve McClaren was too early in the season to be betting. As it turned out, Swansea kept up their exceptional ‘low cards’ record at Home, and added to last season’s stats, that’s now just one out of 20 Home games where Swansea have received the Most Cards/ Bookings. Saturday’s stats: Swansea 2 Cards (20 pts) Newcastle 4 Cards (45 pts). We’ll be looking to cash-in on that trend in the weeks ahead.
- Note – Cards and Booking Points betting: Newcastle’s Darryl Janmaat was Sent Off in that game, having already been Booked. In Bet365’s ‘Cards’ markets a Yellow Card counts as 1 Card and a Red Card counts as 2 Cards, and a player that has already got a Yellow and then gets a Red counts as 3 Cards (the maximum that one player can get in a game). In the ‘Booking Points’ markets at other bookies such as William Hill and BetVictor, Yellow Cards are worth 10 pts and Red Cards are worth 25 pts (with the maximum that one player can get in a game being 35 pts)
West Ham 1 Leicester 2 – Total Corners:
In Friday’s email we noted that West Ham and Leicester were two of the most prolific sides for Over 10.5 Corners bets last season, with that bet paying out in 79% of West Ham Home games, and 66% of all Leicester games. We didn’t dive in with an early season bet at the weekend – and most bookies were betting Over 11.5 Corners instead of Over 10.5 – but the stats rang true nonetheless with a Total Corners score of 12 Corners in the game. That’s another encouraging trend to keep on our list.
We’re treading carefully with our early season bets, waiting for some more solid and up-to-date form to go in the book before really stepping up our weekly match betting. But two bets in particular did catch the eye at the weekend, for our first two Prem10 Picks of the season...
Crystal Palace 1 Arsenal 2 – Both Teams to Score:
We narrowed down the 2014/15 season stats here to focus on the teams’ respective records against teams from the Top/ Bottom Half of the table. Palace had scored in 8 of their 10 most recent games against Top Half sides, whereas Arsenal had failed to keep a Clean Sheet in 7 of their last 10 against Bottom Half sides. Both Teams to Score was therefore, a logical option for us, and the stats were proved correct after just 28 minutes on Sunday.
Stats Pick:
- West Ham v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 – WON
Man City 3 Chelsea 0 – Corner Handicap:
Even at this early stage of the season, this looked a standout opportunity. Man City won the Most Corners in 17 out of 19 Home games last season (89%), covering the -2 Corner Handicap in 79%. City had also bossed the Corner count in 9 out of 10 previous meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, landing the -2 Handicap in each of their last 4 Premier League encounters. That trend continued on Sunday afternoon: Man City 5 Corners Chelsea 1 Corner.
Stats Pick:
- Man City v Chelsea – Man City -2 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 – WON
Note: You can view last Friday’s email and all our weekly emails on the Archive on our site.
What the stats say after Week Two...
The season started with a few ‘shock’ Match Results, most notably Arsenal and Chelsea both failing to land short Home Win odds in Week One. And there were more upsets in the Home Win department in Week Two...
Southampton 0 Everton 3
Tottenham 2 Stoke 2
West Ham 1 Leicester 2
Sunderland 1 Norwich 3
In each of those four games the Home side was the favourite to win in the Match Result market, but failed to deliver on the short Home Win prices offered by the bookies.
Compare that to the four ‘stats’ trends at the start of this email, in the Cards & Bookings, Corners and Goals (Both Teams to Score) markets – where all four trends would have produced winning bets. This illustrates our approach here at Prem10 – using the stats to find the most reliable and profitable bets in the Premier League, from a range of markets...
This means we will usually be looking beyond the standard Match Result market and ‘Home Win’ bets – and to the Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points markets instead. The bookies don’t draw too much attention to these ‘alternative’ markets in their advertising, but the good news for us is that these bets are indeed widely available with the bookmakers.
Taking our two Picks from the weekend as an example...
Both Teams to Score bets are available with pretty much every bookie that you come across.
Corner Handicap bets are available with the likes of Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Stan James, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred. In particular we recommended having accounts with Bet365, BetVictor and William Hill as many of our stats bets – and the best prices – will be with those three bookmakers.
- If you’re new to betting on the stats or would like to find out more about the markets we bet on, check out the Betting Guide page on our website – where you’ll find explanations for a range of markets including Goals, Corners, Cards & Bookings
Coming up this week...
The weekend fixture list concludes tonight with the Monday Night Football on Sky Sports, Liverpool v Bournemouth. As outlined in our pre-season Team-by-Team Guide, it’s a little early for us to be betting on those two sides – Liverpool have added several new players during the transfer window, while Bournemouth are playing only their second ever Premier League game.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the stats tonight though, of course. And remember you can also view the Match Stats for any game on our site, including the Corners and Cards results. Just click on the game to view the Scoreboard here.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back at 2.00pm on Friday with your weekend preview email – including the key stats for the weekend games, along with of course any standout betting opportunities for us.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
