Weekend Picks - 2/1 value and a derby-day special...
Friday 18th March 2016
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- Hornets 2/1 value for Most Cards...
- Canaries seeing Yellow again...
- Going for Goals at the Bridge...
A big weekend on the Cards...
The Cards & Bookings markets have been my main focus this week – which is not surprising considering we have three derby matches taking place...
Our midweek Spotlight email focused on the Manchester derby (email 16th March). Bet365 have done as expected and priced that one up at Under or Over 5.5 Cards...
The recent meeting stats we looked at on Wednesday say to go under, but Referee Michael Oliver’s higher than average Cards per game record is enough to put me off the 4/5 (1.80) for Man City v Man Utd to go ‘Over 5.5’ on Sunday.
Elsewhere we have rivalries renewed in London and in the North East with Chelsea taking on a West Ham side that they’re not used to seeing sit above them in the table. While Newcastle v Sunderland has the extra spice of being Rafa Benitez’s first Home game in charge of Newcastle and also a relegation ‘six pointer.’
If you haven’t got a Coral account then the best way to cash-in on any derby-day ill discipline looks to be their 5/1 enhanced odds special for there to be a Yellow Card in that Newcastle-Sunderland game. That’s a great price and you can get it here.
I’m leaving the derbies aside for our weekend Picks, but there is value to be had in the Cards & Bookings markets at both Watford and West Brom...
Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...
Hornets 2/1 value for Most Cards...
Watford v Stoke – Most Cards/ Most Booking Points
- Watford have received the Most Cards in 7 of their last 10 games
- Stoke have received Most Cards in 3 of their last 10 games
Watford are ranked No.2 on our chart for Most Cards/ Booking Points bets this season, and their recent Home form in that market draws my attention to their price this weekend...
The Hornets have landed that bet in 6 of their last 7 Home games. And the season-to-date stats also suggest Watford are value at 2/1 (3.00) for the Most Cards here – they are ranked 4th in the Premier League for Total Yellow Cards (54) while Stoke are 18th out of 20 with 38 Yellows.
Our Head-2-Head for this game also puts Watford ahead on all the Cards & Bookings stats – landing the Most Cards bet at Home more often than Stoke Away... the First Card more often... and averaging 2.3 Cards per game compared to 1.7 for Stoke.
The Home team are value for the Most Cards here.
The best price is in the Alternative Card Handicap market at Bet365 – Watford 0 Card Handicap @ 11/5 (3.20). Also available, Most Cards – Watford @ 43/20 (3.15) with 888 Sport, Unibet or Which team will receive the most Yellow Cards – Watford at 21/10 (3.10) with Bwin. |
- To find this bet on the Bet365 website, go to: Soccer > Barclays Premier League > Watford v Stoke > Cards > Alternative Card Handicap
Canaries seeing Yellow again...
West Brom v Norwich – Most Cards/ Most Booking Points
- Norwich have received the Most Cards in 6 of their last 7 Away games
- West Brom haven’t received Most Cards in any of their last 6 Home games
The Away team are a fully justified favourite for the Most Cards here – in fact, the stats say Norwich should be a shorter price than they are...
Norwich are our top-rated Away team for Most Cards bets this season, paying out in 11 of 15 games overall (73%), including 6 of their last 7.
West Brom on the other hand have less to fight for – well clear of relegation danger, unlike Norwich – and have been well-behaved at Home most of the season. The Baggies have landed Most Cards bets in just 33% of games at The Hawthorns, and have registered zero Cards For in 3 of their last 6 Home games.
I was expecting to see Norwich priced up shorter than they are here and with that in mind, the prices available offer a bit of value.
Norwich 0 Card Handicap is a best price 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365. Also available, Most Cards – Norwich at 9/10 (1.90) with 888 Sport, Unibet, Which team will receive the most Yellow Cards – Norwich at 20/23 (1.87) with Bwin, or Most Booking Points – Norwich at 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill. |
- To find this bet on the Bet365 website, go to: Soccer > Barclays Premier League > West Brom v Norwich > Cards > Card Handicap
Going for Goals at the Bridge...
Chelsea v West Ham – Both Teams to Score
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 9 of Chelsea’s last 10 Home games in all comps
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 of West Ham’s last 6 Premier League Away games
West Ham beat Chelsea 2-1 earlier in the season and the stats say to expect goals at both ends once again...
Chelsea’s Home Clean Sheet record is poor, conceding in each of their last 8 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge – while West Ham have found the net in 73% of Away games this season.
These two are ranked in our Top 5 for Both Teams to Score bets this season (see the League Stats – Goals page on our site), with Chelsea sitting top with a league-high 73% record at Home. And the Head-2-Head on our site makes Both Teams to Score the top-rated bet for this game, with 100% v 80% records on the Last 5 Games stats.
With that recent form in mind, both teams scoring here is more likely than the bookies’ 50-50 odds suggest...
Both Teams to Score is a best price 4/5 (1.80) with Coral, Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports. |
Weekend Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week is...
- Watford v Stoke – Watford 0 Card Handicap @ 11/5 (3.20) with Bet365
- West Brom v Norwich – Norwich 0 Card Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
- Chelsea v West Ham – Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games – I’ll be back on Monday with a stats review.
P.S
Don’t forget you can get a 5/1 enhanced odds special at Coral for there to be a Yellow Card in the Newcastle-Sunderland game. That really is a great price and you can get it here.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
