Weekend Picks - get 7/2 on Man City to win...
Friday 18th September 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Premier League – Week 6...
- Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks – recommended bets....
- Including 2/1 and 7/2 value...
Welcome to your Prem10 Weekend Preview...
All four of the live TV games feature in our standout stats this weekend – with the markets leading us to bets on three of them...
A couple of prices catches the eye in particular for our Value Picks, with a 2/1 opportunity at Tottenham and an appealing 7/2 price on Man City (see below).
How your Prem10 service works:
- We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets
- I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
Let’s kick off with the big live game on Saturday lunchtime...
Chelsea v Arsenal (TV) – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 out of 5 Chelsea games so far (100%)
- Chelsea have conceded 2+ goals in all 5 games
Chelsea’s Over 2.5 Goals trend and lack of Clean Sheets has come as a bit of a surprise this season. The knee-jerk reaction would be to follow the market and bet odds-on at 4/5 (1.80). But that price doesn’t look good value when you consider Arsenal’s role in all this...
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 Arsenal games so far, and the Under option has paid out in 4 out of 5 meetings between these sides over the last two seasons in all comps, plus the Community Shield in August. Despite Chelsea’s poor start to the season this is still very much a ‘Top 5’ clash and with that comes the possibility of a tight match. No bet on the Total Goals for me.
Bournemouth v Sunderland – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Bournemouth’s 5 Premier League games
- There have been at least 3 Yellow Cards (30 pts) in all 5 Sunderland games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 71% of Sunderland’s Premier League games last season
Bournemouth’s stats are of the most interest here, with the Premier League new-boys racking up 13 Yellow Cards from 5 games so far (only Liverpool and Tottenham have picked up more, on 14 Yellows each).
If the bookies gave us a 3.5 Cards line for this game I’d be interested, but Bet365 are going Over 4.5 Cards and at an odds-on price of 5/6 (1.83) I’m not keen to back the higher line here. No bet – but we should keep Bournemouth’s stats in mind to see if their ‘high Cards’ trend continues to develop.
Newcastle v Watford – Total Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of out 5 Newcastle games
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 Watford games
- Newcastle have failed to score in each of their last 4 games
- Watford have failed to score in 3 out of 5 games
- Watford have kept a Clean Sheet in 3 out of 5 games
Both sides were involved in 2-2 draws on the opening day of the season, but since then it’s been one-way traffic for Under 2.5 Goals bets with a combined run of 8 ‘Under’ payouts in a row...
Bottom of the table Newcastle haven’t found the net since the opening day and are the bottom-ranked side in the Premier League Most Shots chart, averaging just 7 Shots on Goal per game. Under 2.5 Goals is a best price 7/10 (1.70) with BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook and Bwin. See Stats Picks below. |
Man City v West Ham (TV) – Half Time/ Full Time
- Man City won 5 out of 5 games so far, all To Nil (100%)
- West Ham have won both their Away games, at Arsenal and Liverpool, also To Nil
- West Ham have kept a Clean Sheet in 3 out of 5 games
- 8 of Man City’s 11 goals have been scored in the Second Half (73%)
- Half Time – Draw/ Full Time – Win bets have paid out in City’s last 3 Premier League games
League leaders Man City are just 2/7 (1.29) to maintain their 100% win record on Saturday evening, but the value looks to be in the Half Time/ Full Time ‘Double Result’ market...
West Ham have given an excellent account of themselves with Away wins and Clean Sheets at both Arsenal and Liverpool so far, but a third Away scalp is a big ask here (and an 11/1 shot). City have come through to win in the Second Half in each of their last 3 games – 1-0 at Palace, 2-0 v Watford and 2-0 at Everton. We could see a similar match pattern here and odds of 7/2 (4.50) for Draw/ City in the HT/ FT market catch the eye in this one.
Backing that option at that price to level stakes in all 5 City games this season has produced 8.5 pts profit for a 170% Return on Investment. In comparison, the straight Home Win price offers just a 29% ROI. HT/ FT – Draw/ Man City is a best price 7/2 (4.50) with BeVictor and 888 Sport, or 3/1+ (4.0+) in general. See Value Picks below. |
Tottenham v Crystal Palace (TV) – Draw No Bet
- Last season, Tottenham won just 3 out of 8 weekend Premier League games played directly after midweek Europa League games
- Palace have won 8 out of 10 Premier League Away games since Alan Pardew took charge in January
- Tottenham have drawn both their Home games this season
- Palace have won both their Away games this season
- Palace won more game v Top Half sides than v Bottom Half sides last season
This looks a tricky game for Tottenham – a London derby against an in-form side, coming after a midweek game in Europe. Even though the starting line-up here will be somewhat different to Thursday’s Europa League side, Tottenham still have plenty to fear from Palace whose track record under Pardew is excellent.
We don’t dabble too much in the Match Result markets, but the stats say Palace are value. The Away win is 3/1 (4.00), but the Palace – Draw No Bet option appeals to me at 2/1 (3.00) – paying out on the win and returning stakes in the event of a draw. That option would have given one win and one ‘money back’ return in this fixture last season. Best price 2/1 with Skybet, BetVictor and Coral. See Value Picks below. |
Southampton v Man Utd (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- Southampton have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 3 out of 5 games so far
- Man Utd haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 5 Premier League games this season, or in any of their 3 European games
- Bets on Southampton to win the Most Bookings have paid out in each of the 4 meetings between these sides over the last two seasons, Home and Away
The bookies make the Away side Man Utd the slight favourite in the Most Bookings market here. But Southampton landed that bet in 3 out of 4 Home games v Top 4 sides last season and the early 2015/16 stats make a decent case for Southampton, too. Best price 7/5 (2.40) with Bet365 (‘0 Card Handicap’) and William Hill (‘Most Booking Points’). See Stats Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Southampton v Man Utd – Most Booking Points – Southampton @ 7/5 (2.40) with William Hill
Value Picks – my pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Man City v West Ham – Half Time/ Full Time – Draw/ Man City @ 7/2 (4.50) with BetVictor
- Tottenham v Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace – Draw No Bet @ 2/1 (3.00) with Skybet
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the latest stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
