Spotlight - Winning streaks and what they mean...
Wednesday 18th November 2015
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- Winning streaks and what they mean...
- ‘Related trends’ – Man Utd, Sunderland and Leicester...
- Coming up Friday – your weekend Stats Picks and Value Picks...
The Premier League returns this weekend.
There are no more International breaks on the calendar until 2016.
From now on, it’s full-pelt, top-flight Premier League action all the way....
All set for Christmas...
With winter drawing in around us, we have an unbroken run of games to look forward to between now and the New Year...
Starting this Saturday, we have five solid back-to-back weekends of games to get stuck in to. Followed by the packed Christmas schedule that sees 30 games being played in swift succession over the festive period...
Plenty of games = plenty of opportunities. Opportunities for us to use our stats and form analysis to target a wide range of betting markets.
I’ll be using my nose to follow the stats. Those weekly stats findings will give us our starting point. Then we’ll be hunting out the best betting value from the prices and markets available.
We’re all set for the Christmas run-in. It’s an exciting part of the football season and one that will present us with many opportunities to turn the stats into winners.
That’s the plan. Let’s get started...
And talking of an unbroken run of games – today’s Spotlight feature is winning streaks...
In the Spotlight:
Winning Streaks – and what they mean...
The Head-to-Head comparison tool on your Prem10 website tells you which bets are paying out most often for any Premier League fixture, Home v Away. Our stats are displayed by Season overall and also the Last 5 Games.
Those top stats, bets and trends paint an overall picture – a great starting block for us in the search for standout betting opportunities.
While the current winning streaks – that we keep track of in your weekly Prem10 emails – keep us on top of what bets are paying out right now.
And these streaks can help us identify particular teams and traits that can inform our betting decisions...
Here are a handful of the current ‘Winning Streaks’:
- Man Utd’s last 6 games in all competitions have been Under 2.5 Goals – and they’ve also kept 5 Clean Sheets in a row
- Man Utd’s last 9 Premier League games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners bets
- Leicester have Scored in all 12 games – the only Premier League side to have done so. With striker Jamie Vardy landing Anytime Scorer bets in 9 consecutive games
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 8 Leicester Away games in a row in all comps
- Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in each of Sunderland’s last 5 Premier League Home games
Making sense of the stats...
Now, if you possessed some kind of superhuman predictive power, you could have pinpointed ‘54 winning bets in a row’ there...
With 120 games played in the Premier League alone in that period, and 200+ betting markets available for each game, your supernatural skills will have led you to those 54 perfect selections from over 24,000 betting options.
However, I for one certainly don’t possess a time machine or own a crystal ball. And on the rare occasion I go into a phone-box, I don’t come back out wearing a Superman cape.
The stats tell us past events. We then have to make sense of those stats, as we look forward to the next game, the next weekend, the next opportunity...
‘Related trends’...
By piecing together the stats and the streaks, we can narrow down the search. To identify the teams, traits and trends that can provide us with the best opportunities to make a profit.
And when a connection can be made, it tells us something about a team. Events that happen time and time again when the same 11 players take to the pitch are more than mere coincidence...
For example:
Sunderland are struggling...
- Sunderland have the lowest Home Possession average in the Premier League (43.6%)
- They are the lowest ranked side for Most Corners bets at Home – having not won the Most Corners in any of their 6 games at the Stadium of Light
- Sunderland also have the 2nd worst overall Possession stats this season, and have won the Most Corners in just 1 of 12 league games in total
Conclusion:
You don’t need an FA Coaching badge to realise that if you don’t have the ball much, then it’s going to be hard to win many corner kicks.
Consistent outcomes like Sunderland’s Possession and Corners results tell us something about how a team plays. We can then target specific betting markets in order to capitalise on that information. In the Sunderland case, looking to back their opponents in the Most Corners or Corner Handicap markets, for example.
Going back to those winning streaks listed above, two more teams standout right now with their ‘related trends’...
Man Utd are keeping it tight...
- Under 2.5 Goals in 6 games in a row
- 5 Clean Sheets in a row
- 9 games in a row Under 10.5 Corners
- 8.8 Shots conceded per game on average (2nd lowest in Premier League this season)
Conclusion:
Gone are the days of flying wingers and all-out attack at Man Utd. Under manager Louis van Gaal they are hard to break down and keeping it tight. Right now that means Under 2.5 Goals and Clean Sheets bets are proving profitable.
Van Gaal’s conservative approach is also making Man Utd a consistent team for Under 10.5 Corners bets. It’s also worth noting that 5 of United’s 7 league wins this season have paid out on Win To Nil bets.
Leicester are going for it...
- Scored in all 12 games...
- Jamie Vardy scored in 9 in a row...
- Both Teams to Score bets paid out in 11 out of 12...
- Over 2.5 Goals bets in 7 of their last 8...
Conclusion:
Leicester really are going for it. They are the 2nd highest scorers in the Premier League but also have one of the worst defensive records, keeping just one Clean Sheet from 15 attempts in all comps. They have come from behind to win or draw in 50% of games so far, indicating a swashbuckling attitude that is franked by having two of the Premier League’s top four scorers in their side – Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez...
Counter-attacking also plays a part – Vardy has been clocked as the fastest player in the Premier League this season, while Mahrez is listed as the top-rated Midfielder in the Premier League’s Player Performance Index. Leicester are currently 3rd in the table and have lost just 1 of 12 league games. As well as a side to keep an eye on at odds-against prices in the Match Result market (and in-play), Leicester should be kept firmly in mind for Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals and Anytime Scorer bets.
Coming up Friday – your weekend Stats Picks and Value Picks...
Sunderland, Man Utd and Leicester may well feature in our weekend analysis – Watford v Man Utd and Crystal Palace v Sunderland are live on TV, along with Man City v Liverpool and Tottenham v West Ham.
I’ll be back in touch on Friday with your weekend preview including our Stats Picks and Value Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated trends and the best value prices on offer...
P.S
Remember you can also keep track of all our emails, and view all our Team Stats, on the website.
I’ll be back on Friday. Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
