Weekend Picks - Mahrez is the man at 13/5...

Friday 18th December 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• No Home advantage for Swansea...
• Liverpool bad boys on the road...
• Mahrez is the man at 13/5...

In this week’s Spotlight email we looked at teams that could be overrated at Home...

Two bets standout with that thinking in mind this weekend – Swansea look false favourites to win the Most Corners at Home v West Ham, while Liverpool look value to pick up the Most Bookings at Watford...

Plus, we have the Premier League’s top three Scorers all in action at Goodison Park, with one of them available at an eye-catching price.

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

We’re starting with table-topping Leicester City...

Mahrez is the man at 13/5...

Everton v Leicester – Anytime Scorer

• Riyad Mahrez has scored 7 goals from his last 7 games for Leicester
• Mahrez has scored 4 of Leicester’s 5 Premier League goals so far in December
• Everton have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 8 Home games this season
• Leicester have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 Away games

This game features the top three scorers in the Premier League – Romelu Lukaku for Everton (12 goals) and Jamie Vardy (15) & Riyad Mahrez (11) for Leicester. At the prices available this weekend, Mahrez is the Anytime Scorer value...

Lukaku is best price 6/5 (2.20), Vardy is 15/8 (2.88) – while Mahrez is a standout 13/5 (3.60).

There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...

• For example, Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 Stoke games in a row – and they host a Crystal Palace side that have landed that bet in 4 out of 5 Away games. A general price of just 8/13 (1.62), however, means we’re better off looking elsewhere this weekend

Two prices catch the eye in the Corners and Bookings markets...

No Home advantage for Swansea...

Swansea v West Ham (TV) – Most Corners

• Swansea are the only Premier League team yet to win the Most Corners in a Home game (0 out of 8 games)
• Opponents have won the Most Corners in 6 of Swansea’s last 7 Home games
• West Ham have won the Corners Match Bet in 6 out of 8 games v Bottom Half sides (75%)

Swansea featured in our Spotlight analysis earlier this week – flagged up as a team to be wary of in the Corners markets at Home. And the stats make the Away team the value for the Most Corners here...     

Swansea haven’t won more than 5 Corners in any given Home game this season, and average 2.9 Corners For. West Ham on the other hand have won 6+ Corners in half of their Away games and average 5.9 per game.

Swansea haven’t landed the Corners Match Bet in any of their 8 games at the Liberty Stadium, so the fact that they’re odds-on favourites to do so at 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill looks wrong to me.

Liverpool bad boys on the road...

Watford v Liverpool (TV) – Most Bookings

• Liverpool have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 6 of their 8 Away games (75%)
• Watford have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 of their 8 Home games (25%)
• Liverpool have picked up a total of 25 Yellow Cards in Away games – the highest in the Premier League

The bookies make this a 50-50 shot, but the stats say Liverpool should be favourites for the Most Bookings...

Liverpool have landed the Most Bookings bet in more Away games than any other Premier League team this season. And have got twice as many players as Watford with 4 or more Yellow Cards to their name, including the likes of Lucas (6 Yellows) and James Milner (6), who are each just one booking off the top of the Worst Offender chart.

I’ll be back next week with details of our festive football schedule, along with the latest stats and value prices...

Starting with your weekend Review on Monday, swiftly followed by a look at the Boxing Day opportunities.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk