Review - Yellow Cards value at Watford...
Monday 21st March 2016
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Yellow Cards value at Watford...
- What the stats say after Week 31…
- The countdown to France begins...
Yellow Cards value at Watford...
March has been a profitable month for our Picks, and we were on the right side of the value again at the weekend...
All three of our selections came good, with the star pick being Watford winning the Most Cards against Stoke at a standout price of 11/5 (3.20).
In Friday’s Weekend Picks email (18th March) we looked at several Cards & Booking Points stats...
The numbers showed us Watford were higher-ranked than Stoke in a number of categories when it came to earning Yellow Cards – landing Most Cards bets more often, picking up the First Card more often and averaging more Cards per game than Stoke. And the key stat for us – the recent form – showed Watford had landed this bet in a significant 6 of their last 7 HOME games.
With bookies’ generally favouring Away teams in this market, we found some value with the Home side incorrectly priced up as the ‘Most Cards’ underdog. Yellow Cards & Booking Points result: Watford 3 Stoke 1 (30 pts – 10 pts).
- Watford remain our 2nd-highest rated team for Most Cards bets this season
Elsewhere we latched onto two other prices where the odds looked to be in our favour compared to the stats and form...
Norwich provided a 10/11 (1.91) payout for the Most Cards at West Brom – an odds-on price but still too big considering the League Stats on our site show Norwich are our top-rated Away team for Most Cards bets this season.
That one was settled in our favour with the decisive card shown in the final minute of added-on time – we’ve had a few last-gasp results go against us this season so we’ll take our turn with the ‘luck’ there. Yellow Cards & Booking Points result: West Brom 1 Norwich 2 (10 pts – 20 pts).
- Norwich have now landed Most Cards bets in 75% of Away games
In the Chelsea v West Ham match, the 50-50 prices for Both Teams to Score looked to be underrating the chances of goals at both ends, and so it proved with that bet settled by half time (1-1). Final score 2-2.
- Chelsea remain our top-rated team for Both Teams to Score bets this season – paying out in 75% of Home games
Our Prem10 Picks are all about finding the value prices from the weekly match markets. March has panned out well for us with 9.21 pts profit for a 102% Return on Investment. I can’t say when the next payouts will come but if we keep attacking the value prices – with the stats as our guide – then we’ll be putting ourselves in the best position to profit, long-term.
What the stats say after Week 31…
Here are some of the standout stats on my radar after the weekend Premier League games. All good to keep onboard with upcoming fixtures & bet opportunities in mind...
- Chelsea 2 West Ham 2 – Chelsea have now failed to keep a Clean Sheet in each of their last 9 Premier League Home games
- Everton 0 Arsenal 2 – Everton have now lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League Home games
- Crystal Palace 0 Leicester 1 – Palace haven’t won a league game since before Christmas (13 games without a win – the longest current winless sequence in the Premier League)
- Crystal Palace 0 Leicester 1 – Leicester are now 4/7 (1.57) for the title. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games by the 1-0 score-line
- Man City 0 Man Utd 1 – Total Cards = 2 Yellows (20 pts) – Under 4.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 5 of the last 6 league meetings between Man City and Man Utd, and in over 70% of both teams’ Premier League games overall this season
- Swansea 1 Aston Villa 0 – Total Cards = 5 Yellows (50 pts) – Swansea are our top-rated team for Over 3.5 Cards bets, with that bet now having paid out in 12 of 16 Home games (75%)
- Tottenham 3 Bournemouth 0 – Harry Kane’s 2 goals put him clear at the top of the Premier League Top Scorer chart. Kane has scored 5 goals in his last 3 league games, landing 2 First Scorer payouts
The countdown to France begins...
There are no Premier League games for us this weekend. The Easter weekend sees a stack of International Friendly matches, including England v Germany – marking the start of the run-up to the European Championships in France...
Euro2016 will be here before you know it. And after a profitable tournament from our dedicated Euros service last time out in 2012, I’m pleased to announce I’ll be running a full service in France this summer. More details will be released as kick off gets closer...
Look out for a special email from me this weekend – with your chance to get onboard our exclusive Euro2016 Priority Waiting List. Giving you free updates on Euro2016 betting markets and plenty of unique stats & profit angles in the build-up to kick off in June. Along with your chance to reserve a place on the full France 2016 service before anyone else.
We have a great spring & summer in store, with 70+ games left in the Premier League season – before we head off to France in June. Keep an eye on your emails.
P.S
I’ll be back with your next Prem10 emails next week – a Spotlight piece with the latest little-known stats and moneymaking trends from the Premier League, followed by your next weekend Picks on Friday 1st April.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
