Weekend Picks - including a 7/1 shot at Leicester...
Friday 21st August 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Week Three...
- Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks – recommended bets....
- Including 7/1 value for Leicester v Tottenham...
Week Three of the season kicks off on Saturday lunchtime with a classic Premier League fixture, Man Utd v Newcastle live on BT Sport. History says Newcastle are in for a tough time there – see below for the standout stats.
It’s still very early in the season for match betting, but we got our 2015/16 Picks up and running with 2 out of 2 winning selections last weekend – and a couple more bets standout this week. Plus, we’re having our first bigger-price Value Pick with an attractive 7/1 on offer in one of the Weekend Specials markets...
How your Prem10 service works:
- We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets
- I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
We’ll start with that Saturday lunchtime game at Old Trafford...
Man Utd v Newcastle (TV) – Match Result
- Man Utd won 14 out of 19 Home games last season (74%)
- Man Utd have won 5 of their last 6 Premier League games v Newcastle, including a 3-1 Home win and 1-0 Away win last season
- Newcastle lost 8 out of 10 games v Top 5 sides last season (80%)
- Man Utd have started the 2015/16 season with 3 out of 3 wins in all competitions. Newcastle are without a win from their first 2 Premier League games
No surprise that Man Utd are the favourites for the win, and Premier League history agrees with the recent stats – Newcastle have only managed to win one of their last 25 league games v Man Utd. No value to be had in this one though – odds of just 2/5 (1.40) for the Home Win don’t appeal to me. No bet.
Leicester v Tottenham – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in both Leicester games so far, winning 4-2 at Home v Sunderland and 2-1 Away at West Ham
- Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 8 of Leicester’s last 10 games v Top 6 sides last season – including Tottenham 4 Leicester 3 and Leicester 1 Tottenham 2 in this fixture
- Tottenham were the top-rated team in the Premier League for Over 2.5 Goals bets last season – paying out in 71% of games overall and 79% of Away games
The stats say Goals here. Only three teams in the Premier League kept less Clean Sheets than Tottenham’s 9 last season (24%), and the two meetings between these sides produced a total of 10 goals.
Leicester have started the season in sprightly mood with 6 goals scored in 2 games and this looks a good early season opportunity to bet Over 2.5 Goals. Best price 17/20 (1.85) with BetVictor, 5/6 (1.83) with Skybet, Coral, 4/5 (1.80) in general. See Stats Picks below. |
Sunderland v Swansea – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 71% of Sunderland games last season, and 74% of Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in both meetings between these sides last season
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in both Swansea games so far this season – with opponents having a player Sent Off in both games
The stats make a decent case for Over 3.5 Cards but we’re priced out of a bet here, with Bet365 raising their line to Over 4.5 Cards for this game. It’s too early in the season to be making any big judgements so I won’t be betting on that higher option. Sunderland in particular are a team to watch for ‘high Cards’ – but the Over 4.5 line is a No Bet for me.
West Brom v Chelsea (TV) – Match Result
- West Brom won more games v Top Half sides (7) than against Bottom Half sides (4) last season
- West Brom are unbeaten at Home v Chelsea in four seasons (W3 D1 L0), including a 3-0 win in May
- With 2 games of the 2015/16 season played, both West Brom and Chelsea are yet to win
Chelsea are odds-on for the Away Win @ 4/6 (1.67) and that price certainly isn’t anything to get excited about. As well as a slow start to the season – drawing 2-2 at Home v Swansea and losing 3-0 at Man City – Chelsea have a poor record at West Brom in recent years. Don’t get too carried away with West Brom at 5/1 (6.00) either, though – they’ve also started with a draw and a defeat, and are yet to score this season. The stats serve the purpose of steering us away from the Match Result market here. No bet.
Arsenal v Liverpool (TV) – Most Corners
- Arsenal won the Most Corners in 15 out of 19 Home games last season (79%)
- Bets on Arsenal -2 Corner Handicap (to win at least 3 corners more than opponents) paid out in 74% of their Home games
- Liverpool won the Most Corners in just 6 of their 19 Away games (32%)
- Arsenal won the Most Corners in 5 out of 6 Home games v fellow Top 7 sides, including Liverpool
- Opponents won the Most Corners in 4 of Liverpool’s 6 Away games v fellow Top 7 sides
The stats flag up Arsenal as the team to look out for in the Corners markets here, but the Most Corners price is too short to get involved with at 1/3 (1.33) at best with Stan James. While the -3 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365 looks a corner or 2 too big, especially at this stage of the season. There are strong stats for Arsenal to win the Most Corners, but it’s a No Bet from me in terms of the options available this time.
Everton v Man City (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- Everton received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 of their 19 Home games last season (11%), and in just 8 of all 38 games (21%)
- Bets on opponents to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Pts have paid out in both of Everton’s first 2 games of this season
- Bets on Man City to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Pts paid out in 14 of their 19 Away games last season (74%) – with the same strike-rate for First Card bets
- Man City have received the Most Cards/ Booking Pts on their last two visits to Goodison Park
We’re only 2 games into the new season, of course, but the early stats have Everton joint-bottom of the table for Most Fouls (averaging 8.5 per game) and Man City joint-3rd (averaging 14 Fouls per game). Those figures support the strong Cards trends from both last season overall and the recent meetings between City and Everton.
Man City ‘0 Card Handicap’ (Most Cards) in Away games was one of the most profitable bets in the Premier League last season, and this looks a decent game to follow that trend in – with Everton one of the ‘cleanest’ sides in the league at Home. Best price 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365. Also check with the likes of William Hill, Stan James, Skybet and Bwin for Most Cards/ Booking Points or Bookings Match Bet markets. See Stats Picks below. |
Everton v Man City (TV) – Man of the Match
- David Silva has a 90% Pass Completion rate in Man City’s 2 games so far
- Silva has 1 Goal and 3 Assists to his name already this season
- Last season Silva weighed in with an 86% Pass Completion rate, 12 Goals and 7 Assists from 32 Premier League appearances
Stats like those make David Silva ‘Man of the Match’ material. This market is only available for live TV games – with bets settled by the official Man of the Match announcement on Sky Sports for this game – so it’s worth investigating the prices available here...
Paddy Power have City striker Sergio Aguero as the favourite at 9/2 (5.50), followed by Silva at 5/1 (6.00). BetVictor have Aguero shorter at 4/1 (5.00) and Silva bigger at 6/1 (7.00). Silva would be my pick of those two players here, but the prices don’t quite appeal for a Value Pick bet for us. If Silva was 10/1+ (11.00+) I’d be interested – so it’s a No Bet for this week but he’s certainly a player to keep on our radar.
Premier League Weekend Special – Highest Scoring Game
- Leicester were involved in the Highest Scoring Game in Week One, winning 4-2 v Sunderland
- Tottenham were involved in the Highest Scoring Game in Week Two, drawing 2-2
- There were a total of 10 goals scored in the two Premier League meetings between Leicester and Tottenham last season
We’ve already looked at the Over 2.5 Goals stats for Leicester v Tottenham, and that game also catches the eye in one of the weekend Specials markets on offer. This game is 7/1 (8.00) in the Premier League Weekend Specials – Highest Scoring Match market at Ladbrokes, and taking into account the stats and the other fixtures this weekend, that 7/1 price looks a bit of value...
We’ll have our first Value Pick of the season on Leicester v Tottenham at 7/1. This market covers all 10 games on the weekend Premier League fixture list. Ladbrokes are the only bookie up with this market up at present, but Paddy Power and BetVictor are also worth keeping an eye on between now and Saturday lunchtime when the first game kicks off. See Value Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Leicester v Tottenham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 (1.85) with BetVictor
- Everton v Man City – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365
Value Picks – my pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Premier League Weekend Specials – Highest Scoring Match – Leicester v Tottenham @ 7/1 (8.00) with Ladbrokes
Latest Premier League odds here |
You’ll find more stats and bets on our site...
Your Prem10 Friday email gives you my take on the weekend’s standouts stats and betting opportunities. As well as my preview email, you can also view the latest 2015/16 Season stats and Previous Seasons data for all 20 Premier League teams on our website, helping you pick your own bets and find the best opportunities for any game...
- The site contains a wide range of stats and covers stacks of betting markets across the Match Result, Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points and Player/ Scorer categories. With all our stats pages designed to give you an at-a-glance guide to the bets that payout most often on every team
- You can also use the Head-2-Head tool to match up the Home v Away stats for any game. Click on each game on the weekend fixture list on our site to view the Head-2-Head. Or use the drop-down menus to select any two teams to compare
- Plus, there’s our overall League Stats pages – Team Stats, Player Stats and Referee Stats – where you can find out which teams/ players/ Referees provide the most winning bets in which markets. Those stats currently show the final figures in summary for last season, and we’ll be updating them for 2015/16 once a bit more form goes in the database
Log-in to take advantage of all our site has to offer at: www.Prem10.co.uk
I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the weekend stats and results.
P.S
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Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
