Weekend Review - West Ham spring a 1,000/1 surprise...
Monday 21st September 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- West Ham spring a 1,000/1 surprise...
- What the stats say after Week 6...
- Coming up this week…
West Ham spring a 1,000/1 surprise...
The opening weeks of the 2015/16 Premier League season have seen an abnormally low number of Home Wins...
That pattern continued at the weekend with just 3 out of 10 Home teams winning. The overall Home Win Rate in the Premier League currently stands at just 24% (12 Home Wins from 50 games played in total). On average we would expect to see about double that amount of Home Wins.
With those numbers in mind you can see why I was keen to take the Away value on Crystal Palace at the weekend – a team that had won 8 out of 10 Away league games since Alan Pardew took over as manager. Unfortunately that game ended up one of the few Home Win results, with Tottenham winning 1-0.
By far the biggest Home Win upset/ Away Win glory was at the Etihad Stadium, where league leaders Man City were beaten 2-1 at Home by West Ham...
The Hammers were 11/1 to win there, and more incredibly – that win completes a remarkable Away Win ‘treble’ for West Ham who have now won back-to-back games on the road at Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City, all at similar double-figure odds. The combined price of those 3 Away Wins comes out at more than 1,000/1.
Finding 10/1 and 11/1 Away Win bets is a tricky business, of course. But one thing the low Home Win Rate in the Premier League demonstrates right now is that we should be prepared to look beyond the Match Result markets, and avoid short price Home teams.
What the stats say after Week 6...
Here’s an update on the standout stats listed in Friday’s Weekend Preview email.
Chelsea 2 Arsenal 0 – Total Goals:
We were right to avoid Chelsea’s 5-games-out-of-5 trend for Over 2.5 Goals here. The Under 2.5 Goals option has now paid out in 5 of Arsenal’s 6 Premier League games this season – and in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two clubs.
Bournemouth 2 Sunderland 0 – Total Cards:
Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 5 out of 6 Bournemouth games. This was a ‘no bet/ watching brief’ game for me with the bookies only offering the higher Over 4.5 Cards line. It was Sunderland who collected the majority of bookings here, including a Red Card. Total Cards = 9, Total Booking Points = 95 pts.
Newcastle 1 Watford 2 – Total Goals:
Newcastle remain winless, but they scuppered the strong Under 2.5 Goals stats here, scoring for the first time since the opening day of the season.
Stats Pick:
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 7/10 – LOST
Man City 1 West Ham 2 – Half Time/ Full Time:
Man City’s 100% start to the season came to a crushing halt here, beaten at Home by 11/1 match outsiders West Ham. We avoided the short Home Win price of 2/7 (1.29) but our Value Pick in the HT/ FT market failed to produce a 7/2 (4.50) payout, either. The Half Time – West Ham/ Full Time – West Ham was a whopping 22/1 (23.00) turn up for the books.
Value Pick:
- HT/ FT – Draw/ Man City @ 7/2 – LOST
Tottenham 1 Crystal Palace 0 – Draw No Bet:
This was an entertaining game and there could and perhaps should have been a lot more than just the one goal – with our picks Palace hitting the post twice. Going into this game Palace had won 8 out of 10 Premier League Away games under Alan Pardew, and they looked every inch a Value Pick against a Tottenham side who until now have hardly impressed this season.
Value Pick:
- Crystal Palace – Draw No Bet @ 2/1 – LOST
Southampton 2 Man Utd 3 – Team with Most Bookings:
Finally something to cheer about here, with Southampton keeping up their solid (and somewhat overlooked) record of receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Points v Top 4 sides. Southampton have now landed that bet in 4 out of 5 Home games v Top 4 sides since the start of last season, and in 4 out of 6 Premier League games overall this season.
Man Utd on the other hand have yet to receive the Most Cards/ Bookings in any of their 9 games in the Premier League or in Europe. Result = Southampton 2 Cards, Man Utd 0 Cards (Booking Points = Southampton 20 pts, Man Utd 0 pts).
Stats Pick:
- Most Booking Points – Southampton @ 7/5 – WON
A note on our Picks...
A losing week from following our Picks overall last weekend, but it’s important to point out that it only takes one or two of our bigger-price Value Picks to come in, for example, to turn things around.
So far none of our 5 Value Picks have paid out this season. But since we introduced the Stats Picks and Value Picks categories, just 4 winners from 18 Value Picksproduced a 22% Return on Investment for an overall profit between March and the end of the season – including payouts at odds of 4/1 and 6/1.
Our Stats Picks meanwhile are running at a 42% strike-rate. With the Stats Picks generally available at more modest prices, around the Even Money (2.00) mark, we are of course aiming for a higher strike-rate in that department as the season progress and the stats trends develop.
We have 32 rounds of the 38-game season ahead of us. Plenty of opportunities to look forward to and I’ll be monitoring the stats and prices every week – continuing this weekend...
Coming up this week…
I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview email and betting Picks – including all the key standout stats and markets for the weekend games. With Tottenham v Man City and Newcastle v Chelsea featuring among the live TV games.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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