Spotlight - Away-day warnings for Chelsea and Spurs...
Wednesday 21st October 2015
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- In the spotlight...
- Away-day warnings for Chelsea and Spurs...
- Why some 100% trends are better than others...
- Derby day this weekend...
In the spotlight...
Last week we kicked off our new Spotlightfeature in good style, with the stats ultimately leading us to an 11/4 Anytime Scorer payout from Jamie Vardy in our weekend Picks...
Vardy got 2 goals for Leicester at Southampton and remains both the Top Scorer in the Premier League this season (9 goals) and our top-rated player for Anytime Scorer bets – with 7 payouts from 9 games (78%), scoring in each of Leicester’s last 6 league games.
- Your Prem10 Spotlight email is a new midweek feature where we’ll be taking a look at some of the key stats and moneymaking trends from across the Premier League. The focus is on numbers – no Talksport gossip or back-page of the newspaper hype here
- The idea is to discover a few betting gems along the way, pointing out little-known patterns, statistics, team trends and betting markets where we can get the edge on the bookies
- All this additional research and data-probing will help us latch on to bets that may go on to feature in our Weekend Picks email and analysis every Friday, before each round of games
I’ve got the spotlight on full-beam – here are my findings this week...
Away-day warnings for Chelsea and Spurs...
With a full midweek programme of Champions League and Europa League fixtures this week, now seems a good time to look at the formbook and see how Premier League teams tend to get on in their next domestic game, directly after a midweek European trip...
Match Result records after European AWAY games:
(Since the start of last season. Most recent results first)
Arsenal - LWWWWD
Chelsea - LDDWW
Man Utd - WLLWDW
Man City - WWWLD
Tottenham - DLWLLW
Liverpool - DWWLW
Those records highlight Chelsea and Tottenham as the teams ‘most likely to struggle’ following a European Away game.
Chelsea played in the Ukraine at Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League last night, while Tottenham are in Belgium tomorrow evening for a Europa League tie against Anderlecht.
- This weekend Chelsea travel to West Ham in the Premier League on Saturday, with Spurs away at Bournemouth on Sunday...
In both cases the Away team are the bookies’ Match Result favourite – Chelsea are 10/11 (1.91) to win and Tottenham are 6/5 (2.20)...
But the European-follow-up form suggests those short prices are best avoided.
Why some 100% trends are better than others...
Here at Prem10 we do all the stats homework for you – and a big part of the service is to keep abreast of the current trends and winning streaks...
Nine games into the season and we have two teams with significant 100% trends, in the following betting markets:
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 9 out of 9 Swansea games
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 9 out of 9 Leicester games
A 100% stat doesn’t mean we should follow that trend and bet ‘blind’ in every game featuring that team – but it does help us zoom in on potential betting opportunities...
The Swans keep it clean...
With Swansea’s faultless ‘Over 3.5 Cards’ record you’d be entitled to ask why that bet hasn’t featured in any of our weekend betting Picks so far. The answer is that while Swansea games are consistently producing Over 3.5 Cards, Swansea themselves are not contributing heavily enough to those totals:
- Swansea haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in ANY of their 9 games
- Swansea are ranked just 13th out of 20 in the ‘worst discipline’ chart – with 16 Yellows and no Red Cards after 9 games played
When looking at a potential ‘Over’ bet in the Total Cards market we need to be confident that the stats are showing both teams have the ability to earn plenty of cards.
Those figures lead us to the question, are Swansea therefore the ‘Most Fouled’ team in the Premier League, resulting in their opponents receiving a high number of Yellow Cards?
The answer is yes – Swansea are fouled on average 13.7 times per game, the highest figure in the division.
From a betting stance, this knowledge tells us that while Over 3.5 Cards bets currently have a 100% strike rate in Swansea games, there could be better opportunities for us in the Team with Most Bookings market...
- Bets on opponents to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 7 out of 9 Swansea games (78%), including 4 out of 4 Swansea Away games
With Swansea travelling to Aston Villa this weekend, that’s one market I’ll be keeping an eye out for with our Friday betting Picks in mind.
Leicester are the real deal...
In comparison to those Swansea numbers, Leicester’s 100% Both Teams to Score trend doesn’t come with any caveats...
- Leicester have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 Premier League games – with all 5 of those games also paying out on Over 2.5 Goals bets as well as Both Teams to Score
- Leicester are yet to keep a Clean Sheet in 11 games in all competitions this season, league & cup
And unlike Swansea, we’ve had two bets and two winners from following the Leicester stats in recent weeks – landing a Both Teams to Score payout and an Over 2.5 Goals winner with our Stats Picks.
As I reported last Friday, Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri has pledged to take his players out for pizza when they keep their first Clean Sheet. That incentive scheme hasn’t worked yet – he’ll try again v Crystal Palace this weekend.
View the latest stats on our site...
The Team Stats and Head-2-Head pages on our website tell you the percentage strike rates – Home and Away – for over 30 betting markets for all 20 teams in the Premier League...
Including the Over 3.5 Cards and Both Teams to Score stats mentioned above.
For example:
Team Stats page for Swansea (Home and Away), at www.Prem10.co.uk:
Team Stats page for Leicester (Home and Away), at www.Prem10.co.uk:
Derby day this weekend...
A few intriguing bets on the radar for the weekend there – I’ll be back on Friday afternoon (by 2.00pm) with your Weekend Picks email – highlighting the standout stats and betting opportunities for this week’s games...
It’s derby day for several clubs this week, which means we need to pay special attention to the recent meetings between these rivals...
West Ham v Chelsea
Sunderland v Newcastle
Man Utd v Man City
There should be some great games there. I’ll be in touch with the standout stats and bets on Friday.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
