Review - Mahrez hits the spot, Swansea fail again...
Monday 21st December 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Mahrez hits the spot...
- Swansea fail again...
- What the stats say after Week 17…
- Coming up this week – the Christmas calendar...
Crazy days...
It was yet another mad week in the Premier League...
Jose Mourinho left Chelsea just months after winning the league... Man Utd lost at Home to 7/1 Norwich... preseason 1,000/1 shots Leicester are guaranteed to be top at Christmas after winning 3-2 at Everton... and Watford are the No.1 form side in the division after racking up their 4th straight win, thumping Liverpool 3-0.
With all that madness going on, we kept our heads and used the stats to steer us to a profitable weekend. Our weekend Picks produced 2 payouts from 3 selections.
And while I can’t confess to having foreseen Watford 3 Liverpool 0... Man Utd 1 Norwich 2... or even West Brom 1 Bournemouth 2... our stats & analysis nevertheless helped us grind out a profit by looking beyond the Home Wins and favourites on the Match Result coupon.
Mahrez hits the spot...
Since Jamie Vardy’s record-breaking 11-game scoring run came to an end, we’ve been looking to some of the other players making a mark for themselves on the Top Scorer table...
Last week we landed Anytime Scorer payouts on Watford’s Odion Ighalo at 2/1 (3.00) and Everton’s Romelu Lukaku at 6/4 (2.50).
We followed that up in our most recent Friday email with a Value Pick on Vardy’s Leicester teammate Riyad Mahrez at a standout 13/5 (3.60). Mahrez opened the scoring in Leicester’s 3-2 win at Everton, and also got the third goal of the game – with both strikes coming from the penalty spot.
- Mahrez has scored 6 of Leicester’s 8 goals so far in December
Note: The sharp-eyed among you will have spotted that I got my ‘teams in blue kits’ in a brief muddle on Friday, at one point claiming that Mahrez played for Everton instead of Leicester. Apologies for any confusion caused...
Lukuku (who definitely does play for Everton) also found the net again on Saturday – scoring for the 7th successive Premier League game and 8th in a row in all comps. Could Vardy’s record be in his sights?
Ighalo bagged 2 more goals, too, meaning he has now scored 12 of Watford’s 21 goals this season – a Premier League high of 57% of team goals.
It’s fair to say none of the players mentioned above are yet household names in the way that Sergio Aguero or Wayne Rooney are. And that ‘unknown’ factor may partly explain some of the decent value prices we’ve been getting about the likes of Mahrez and Ighalo recently.
We’ll be looking to cash-in on the Scorer markets again during the festive period.
Swansea fail again...
Following our Stats Picks has produced a 35% ROI so far this month and as we approach the 19-game halfway point of the season, there are some solid stats & trends that are becoming reliable betting options for us.
Liverpool didn’t keep up their 75% Away record for landing the Most Cards bet – their zero Yellow Cards to 1 for Watford indicative of a lacklustre effort all round from the visitors.
One that caught the eye in particular in our Wednesday Spotlight feature last week, however, was Swansea’s woeful ‘Most Corners’ record at Home...
Despite the fact that Swansea had failed to win the Most Corners in any of their previous 8 Home Premier League games, the bookies made Swansea odds-on favourites to land that bet against West Ham.
We duly backed West Ham as the Away team value at 6/5 (2.20), and they landed the Corners Match Bet by 9 corners to 8, in a game that ended 0-0 on the score-sheet.
That tally of 8 corners was Swansea’s highest Home effort of the season, but still wasn’t enough to stop West Ham.
- Opponents have won the Most Corners in 7 of Swansea’s last 8 Home games
That game was a prime example of ‘Home team bias’ being incorrectly applied to the betting markets – on the stats, West Ham, Away team or not, shouldn’t have been the underdogs for the Most Corners.
I’ll be on the hunt for more opportunities like that over Christmas and into the New Year.
What the stats say after Week 17…
Our weekly Picks target the best value prices available about the week’s standout stats. Here are some more of the top trends on our betting radar right now...
- Everton 2 Leicester 3 – Leicester have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 Away games. Bets on Leicester to Win & Both Teams to Score have paid out in 8 of their 11 wins (73%) – paying out at the weekend at odds of 5/1 (6.00)
- Southampton 0 Tottenham 2 (Corners = 4-7) – Tottenham have now won the Most Corners in 7 out of 8 Away games (88%)
- Southampton 0 Tottenham 2 – Under 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 6 of Tottenham’s 8 Away games (75%)
- Swansea 0 West Ham 0 – West Ham have now drawn 5 of their last 6 games
- Man Utd 1 Norwich 2 – Both Teams to Score bets have now paid out in 71% of Norwich games
- Chelsea 3 Sunderland 1 (Total Cards = 4) – Over 3.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 7 out of 9 Chelsea Home games (78%)
Those stats and many more will all be in our thinking ahead of the upcoming games...
Coming up this week – the Christmas calendar...
We have a busy couple of weeks in store, with stacks of games to look forward to over Christmas...
First of all, I’ll be back with your Spotlight email on Wednesday – highlighting more of the little-known and profitable areas in the Premier League markets.
Followed by your Boxing Day Picks email on Thursday (Christmas Eve).
I’ll email you before each round of games over the busy festive period. Lookout for my stats analysis and betting Picks on these dates:
- Thur 24th Dec – Analysis & Picks for games taking place Sat 26th Dec
- Sun 27th Dec – Analysis & Picks for games taking place Mon 28th – Wed 30th Dec
- Thur 31st Dec – Analysis & Picks for games taking place Sat 2nd – Sun 3rd Jan
Every email will also be posted on our website, with the current advice on the Latest Bets page, and all other emails available on the Archive page.
That’s all from me for today. Mince pie in hand, I’m off to begin my Christmas research...
Until Wednesday,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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