Weekend Picks - Spurs standout at 7/1...
Friday 22nd January 2016
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- Spurs standout at 7/1...
- West Ham and Sunderland stats underrated...
- Rooney’s on a roll...
Today we’re following up on our midweek analysis of West Ham – and the weekend stats also point us to value betting opportunities at Man Utd, Sunderland and Crystal Palace...
Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...
We’re taking a rare foray into the Correct Score market today, where Spurs catch the eye at decent prices...
Spurs standout at 7/1...
Crystal Palace v Tottenham – Correct Score
- 7 out of 9 Palace defeats have been To Nil
- Palace have lost 1-0 on 5 occasions this season – more than any other team
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Tottenham’s last 5 Away games
Spurs standout as an Away Win contender here, and the Goals stats point us to a couple of Correct Score prices...
Palace have a significant record of 1-0 defeats and are currently on a 5-game goal drought. They are yet to score a league goal in 2016 – and have lost their last 3 games.
Tottenham are top of the Last 6 Form table (Palace are 2nd bottom), and have the best defensive record in the Premier League (just 18 goals conceded from 22 games). They have only lost one Away game so far.
Spurs beat Palace 1-0 at White Hart Lane earlier in the season, and 2 of their last 4 Away wins v Premier League opposition have finished 2-0. We could see a repeat of one of those score-lines here...
‘Tottenham to Win & Under 2.5 Goals’ is 10/3 (4.33) at best with Stan James but we can beat that combined price by splitting stakes across the Tottenham 1-0 Correct Score at 7/1 (8.00) and the Tottenham 2-0 Correct Score at 21/2 (11.50) with BetVictor. Those score-lines are available elsewhere at 6/1 (7.00) and 9/1 (10.00) in general. |
There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...
- For example, Man Utd have a high 80% record for winning the Most Corners at Home – but are just 4/9 (1.44) to land that bet against Southampton this weekend. Better value resides elsewhere…
Hammers underrated against the big boys...
West Ham v Man City (TV) – Asian Handicap
- West Ham have won 2 of their last 3 games v Man City
- City have won just 1 of their last 7 Premier League Away games
West Ham can be backed with a +1.0 Asian Handicap here – an option that covers both the Home Win and Draw, with the added insurance of stakes returned in the event of a 1-goal defeat...
I highlighted West Ham’s good record against the ‘big boys’ in our Spotlight email on Wednesday. The Hammers also have a habit of being fast starters – opening the scoring in 5 out of 6 ‘underdog’ victories against Liverpool (Home & Away), Chelsea (H), Man City (A), Arsenal (A) and Southampton (H).
A 2-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out – along with the return to fitness & goal-scoring form of Sergio Aguero for Man City – prevents me from going all-out and backing the West Ham win at 4/1+ (5.00+). But the +1.0 Asian Handicap covers a range of options and it’s worth noting that 3 of West Ham’s 4 defeats this season have been by exactly one goal...
West Ham +1.0 Asian Handicap has given a return in 21 of their 22 Premier League games this season. Against a Man City side with a patchy Away record, that Handicap line looks value. Best price 8/11 (1.73) with BetVictor, Winner. |
Sunderland stats improving at Home...
Sunderland v Bournemouth – Corner Handicap
- Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in their last 4 Home games
- Bournemouth have failed to win the Most Corners in 6 of their last 8 games
The Home team looks the value in the Corners markets here...
On the season-long stats Bournemouth are an understandable favourite for the Most Corners (55%) – seeing as Sunderland sit bottom of our Most Corners table with just an 18% strike rate.
However, Sunderland’s Home record has improved in that department, winning the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 and landing the +1 Corner Handicap in all 4.
Sunderland are 15/8 (2.88) for the Most Corners but the +1 Corner Handicap (which pays out on a Most Corners Tie, too) is also available at odds-against and that looks a little generous. Best price 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365, 23/20 (2.15) BetVictor. |
Rooney’s on a roll...
Man Utd v Southampton – Anytime Scorer
- Man Utd have scored 7 goals in their last 5 games in all comps – and Wayne Rooney has got 5 of them
- Rooney has landed Anytime Scorer bets in each of his last 4 games
Wayne Rooney has got 2016 off to a strong start with goals in all 4 of his appearances...
Southampton have conceded goals in all 4 of their Away trips to sides currently above them in the table, and Rooney looks a decent price to find the net against them here...
Rooney – Anytime Scorer can be backed at 7/4 (2.75), which is bigger than the prices on offer for the league’s other in-form strikers this weekend – the likes of Aguero, Kane, Giroud and top scorers Lukaku and Vardy are all trading shorter. Rooney is a best price 7/4 with Betfred, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet. |
Prem10 Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
Value Picks – in search of a big price winner, using the stats as a guide:
- Crystal Palace v Tottenham – Correct Scores – Tottenham 1-0 @ 7/1 (8.00) and Tottenham 2-0 @ 21/2 (11.50) with BetVictor
Stats Picks – best value prices for the top-rated bets, flagged up by the stats:
- West Ham v Man City – West Ham +1.0 Asian Handicap @ 8/11 (1.73) with BetVictor
- Sunderland v Bournemouth – Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365
- Man Utd v Southampton – Anytime Scorer – Wayne Rooney @ 7/4 (2.75) with BetVictor
Latest Premier League odds here |
I’ll be back on Monday with your weekend stats Review. Enjoy the weekend football...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
