Weekend Picks - 4/1 value at Leicester...

Friday 22nd April 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• 4/1 value at Leicester...
• 7/4 Sanchez to strike again...

Wednesday night’s Merseyside derby bucked the recent trend for No Red Cards in 8 meetings, with Everton having a man Sent Off in the second half of their 4-0 defeat at Liverpool...

Until then our Liverpool +1 Card Handicap pick was on track with a player I mentioned in our Wednesday analysis, James Milner, going in the book after just 8 minutes.

Milner now has 8 Yellow Cards for the season – only 4 players in the Premier League have more.

On the hunt again for value this weekend and the Scorer markets look the place to be...

There are just 7 fixtures in the Premier League this week with Man Utd, Everton, Crystal Palace and Watford in action in the FA Cup Semi Finals at Wembley. Two games get our attention in the league...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this week.

4/1 Sigurdsson is big value...

Leicester v Swansea – Anytime Scorer

• Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored in 9 of his last 15 games for Swansea
• Backing Sigurdsson Anytime Scorer @ 4/1 to level stakes this year has produced 30 pts profit for a 200% ROI

The Anytime Scorer market looks a little one-sided here...

With top scorer Jamie Vardy suspended, three other Leicester players lead the betting: Leonardo Ulloa (1 goal in last 6 games), Riyad Mahrez (1 goal in 5) and Shinji Okazaki (1 goal in 13) – each priced at around 7/4 (2.75) to score.

Compare those stats and prices with Swansea’s top scorer Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored in 4 of his last 6 games and is as big as 4/1 (5.00) to score this weekend...

The form stretches back to the start of the year: Sigurdsson has got 9 goals in 15 Premier League games in 2016; only the league’s top scorers Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero have got more.

Leicester have an excellent Clean Sheet record (5 of last 6 games) – but have conceded 2 goals in 2 of their last 4 Home games, both 2-2 draws.

Swansea meanwhile have found the net in 71% of Away games this season, a record only bettered by five Premier League teams, and the Swans have scored in 7 of their last 8 on the road.

The formbook makes a strong case for Sigurdsson here and the prices look great value...

7/4 Sanchez to strike again...

Sunderland v Arsenal – Anytime Scorer

• Sunderland have conceded in 8 of their last 9 Home games
• Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez has scored 5 goals in 4 games

The in-form Alexis Sanchez is another player that catches the eye in the Scorer markets this weekend...

Sanchez scored both goals in Arsenal’s 2-0 midweek win over West Brom, and has now landed First Scorer bets in 3 out of 4 games and Anytime Scorer bets in 4 out of 4.

It’s no surprise to see three Arsenal players at the top of the betting here, but the formbook says Sanchez should be ahead of Olivier Giroud (no goals in 13 Premier League games) and Danny Welbeck (1 goal in 6).

Instead, the Anytime Scorer market has Giroud & Welbeck as short as 10/11 (1.91) in places, while Sanchez can be backed at a standout 7/4 (2.75). The form player is the value here...

P.S

Your 50-day warning!

It may have been the Queen’s 90th birthday yesterday, but there was also another significant milestone on the calendar...

Just 50 days to go until Euro 2016 kicks off...

To give yourself the best chance of grabbing the early value this summer, get your name on my Euro 2016 Priority Waiting List today. It’s free to get your name down and you’ll receive updates and bet info from me on the road to France...

Members made 33 pts profit from Euro 2012. Don’t miss out on this year’s advice...

Click here to register your interest

I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the latest stats, betting & results from across the Premier League. Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10