Weekend Picks - back this Belgian star in Manchester...
Friday 23rd October 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Premier League – Week 10...
- Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks – recommended bets...
- Including 14/5 value in the Manchester derby...
Welcome to your Prem10 Weekend Preview...
There are three big derby matches in the Premier League this weekend – and when it comes to rivalries, my first thought is always to look at the Cards & Booking Points stats...
The temptation can be to assume that a local rivalry is going to end up with a high number of Yellow and/ or Red Cards, but not every derby ends with a 22-man brawl...
I’ve taken a look at the Bet365’s Total Cards market for this weekend’s three local clashes, along with the stats from each of the last 10 Premier League meetings:
West Ham v Chelsea
Total Cards market: Over 4.5 Cards
Recent meetings Over 4.5 Cards = 2 out of 10 games
Sunderland v Newcastle
Total Cards market: Over 5.5 Cards
Recent meetings Over 5.5 Cards = 6 out of 10
Man Utd v Man City
Total Cards market: Over 5.5 Cards
Recent meetings Over 5.5 Cards = 4 out of 10
Those figures suggest that betting ‘Over’ in the Total Cards market isn’t the best way to profit this weekend. See below to see where the stats are pointing us instead...
How your Prem10 service works:
- We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets
- I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Team and Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
We’ll kick off with the London derby at West Ham...
West Ham v Chelsea – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 out of 9 West Ham games (78%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 78% of Chelsea games, and in all 4 of their Away games (100%)
- There has been at least one goal scored Before 27th Minute in 8 out of 9 West Ham games (89%)
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 West Ham Home games and 3 out of 4 Chelsea Away games
The season-to-date figures paint an ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ picture here – that option is the 8/11 (1.73) favourite in the Total Goals market, but the numbers above don’t tell the whole story...
Chelsea have kept 2 Cleans Sheets in the last week (after a dreadful start to the season) – and recent meetings between these two London rivals need to be taken into account: West Ham have failed to score in each of their last 5 Premier League derbies against Chelsea, with 4 of those 5 games paying out on Under 2.5 Goals bets. No bet.
West Ham v Chelsea – Most Corners
- Chelsea have won the Most Corners in just 3 out of 14 games in all competitions this season (21%)
- Chelsea have won the Most Corners in just 2 out of 9 Premier League games (22%)
- West Ham have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Home games (75%)
- Bets on West Ham to win the Corners Match Bet have paid out in each of their last 3 games v Chelsea at Upton Park
West Ham and Chelsea can both be backed at the same price to win the Corners Match Bet – and the stats say the value is with West Ham...
West Ham have more than held their own v Chelsea in the Corners department in recent meetings, and Chelsea have a weak Most Corners record so far in 2015/16. Team with Most Corners – West Ham is a best price 11/10 (2.10) with William Hill, 21/20 (2.05) BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet, Bwin, Evens (2.00) Bet365. See Stats Picks below. |
Leicester v Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in all 9 Leicester games (100%), and in 11 out of 11 in all comps
- Leicester are the 3rd highest scorers in the Premier League, averaging 2.11 Goals For per game
- Palace have scored in 7 of their 9 games (78%)
- Palace have scored in each of their last 7 Away games v teams outside of last season’s Top 7
Leicester’s Both Teams to Score trend has been one of the best trends of the season so far – paying out in every game – and shows no signs of stopping...
We’ve successfully backed Leicester in the Goals markets in their last 2 games, and I’m happy to follow them again this weekend. Both Teams to Score – best price 2/3 (1.66) with 10Bet, 8/13 (1.62) in general. See Stats Picks below. |
Aston Villa v Swansea – Total Corners
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 7 of Swansea’s last 8 games
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 78% of Villa games
- Villa Home games are averaging 10.1 Total Corners
- Swansea Away games are averaging 7.5 Total Corners
Swansea in particular have been involved in several ‘low Corners’ games recently, with the Total Corners in their last 6 games being: 3, 11, 7, 6, 4 and 1. However the bookies aren’t being generous with their prices here with Under 10.5 Corners available at just 1/2 (1.50) with Bet365 and 888 Sport. Those odds are too short to warrant a bet for us this time – no bet.
Aston Villa v Swansea – Team with Most Bookings
- Swansea haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 11 games in all competitions this season (9 league games, 2 cup games)
- Bets on opponents to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in all 4 of Swansea’s Premier League Away games (100%), and 7 out of 9 overall (78%)
- Villa have received the Most Cards/ Bookings in 2 of their 4 Home games
- Villa are ranked 5th of 20 for the Most Fouls per game in the Premier League, averaging 13.0 (Swansea are 13th with 10.7)
- Swansea are the ‘Most Fouled’ team in the Premier League, averaging 13.7 Fouls Against per game
As discussed in our Spotlight email earlier this week, Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 9 Swansea games – but Swansea haven’t received the Most Cards on any occasion...
Backing their hosts in the ‘Most’ market has paid out in all 4 Swansea Away games so far – and Villa look a decent match-up here. While the bookies have set the Total Cards line higher than normal at 4.5 Cards, both teams are the same price to receive the Most Cards – and Villa look the value.
Aston Villa – 0 Card Handicap is a best price 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365. Also available, Villa – Most Booking Points at 5/4 (2.25) with William Hill. The likes of 888 Sport, Unibet and Bwin will also have these markets up ahead of kick off. See Stats Picks below. |
Liverpool v Southampton (TV) – Match Result/ Correct Score
- These sides have identical Match Result records this season: W3 D4 L2 (13 pts)
- Liverpool and Southampton have each drawn 4 out of 9 Premier League games this season
- Backing the Draw to level stakes at average odds of 5/2 in every Liverpool game has produced 5 pts profit for a 56% Return on Investment – and the same figures apply for Southampton
- Liverpool have drawn 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions, with 6 of those games paying out on the 1-1 Correct Score
Betting on the ‘Draw’ is always a tricky business, but Liverpool’s run of 7 draws from 8 games means they find themselves in our analysis today. The draw is a standard price of around the 5/2 (3.50) mark this weekend but there could be some value in the Correct Score market, where the 1-1 score-line is a 13/2 (7.50) shot with BetVictor compared to as short as 5/1 (6.00) elsewhere.
It’s worth noting however that none of the last 13 meetings between these sides have ended level – and in the more recent form, although Jurgen Klopp’s first 2 games as Liverpool manager have ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1), it’s too early in his tenure to treat that as any kind of trend. A potential Score Draw on the Pools coupon, but not quite a bet for me.
Man Utd v Man City (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Man City have scored in each of the last 12 Manchester derbies in all competitions
- Kevin De Bruyne has scored in 5 out of 8 games for Man City, including 4 of his last 5 games
- De Bruyne has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 of his last 9 games for club & country
- Backing De Bruyne to Score Anytime to level stakes at average odds of 5/2 in all his appearances for City so far has produced 9.5 pts profit for a 119% ROI
Kevin De Bruyne has started his Man City career in fantastic form. If he keeps on scoring at his current rate then we won’t see him at Anytime Scorer prices of 14/5 (3.80) for much longer...
Considering the likes of Man Utd’s Marouane Fellaini is a shorter price than De Bruyne to score in this game – despite finding the net in just 2 of 11 games in all comps – it’s City’s Belgian star that looks the value. Anytime Scorer – Kevin De Bruyne is a best price 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James, 11/4 (3.75) Coral, Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet. See Value Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- West Ham v Chelsea – Team with Most Corners – West Ham @ 11/10 (2.10) with William Hill
- Leicester v Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score @ 2/3 (1.66) with 10Bet
- Aston Villa v Swansea – Aston Villa 0 Card Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365
Value Picks – the pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Man Utd v Man City – Anytime Scorer – Kevin De Bruyne @ 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with a review of all the latest stats and results...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
