Review - Southampton produce another 2/1 winner...
Monday 23rd November 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- 8 ‘Most Cards’ payouts in a row for Southampton...
- Bournemouth’s strong Corners form continues...
- What the stats say after Week 13...
- Coming up this week...
There were a few mad score-lines in the Premier League over the weekend. Apparently Sir Alex Ferguson used to hate the week after International breaks as players came back to their club ‘with their heads full of mince’...
Perhaps that was the case with the likes of Man City, Arsenal and Southampton, who were all beaten despite being odds-on favourites in the Match Result betting. City went down 1-4 at home to Liverpool, Southampton lost 0-1 at home v Stoke and Arsenal were beaten 2-1 at West Brom.
Those results didn’t impact our bets though. We prefer to look to the alternative markets – such as Goals, Corners and Cards. At the weekend we successfully latched on to two such bets where the stats highlighted value prices for us...
8 ‘Most Cards’ payouts in a row for Southampton...
Southampton remain our top-rated side for Most Cards/ Booking Points bets – yet the bookies keep on underrating them.
On Saturday, the Saints picked up 2 Yellow Cards to Stoke’s zero (20 Bookings Pts v 0 pts), landing the 0 Card Handicap, Most Cards and Most Booking Points option for the 8th successive Premier League game.
- Southampton Most Cards/ Bookings bets have now paid out in 11 out of 13 games (85%)
This week we got on that trend at odds of 2/1+ (3.00+). In their previous game Southampton were an 8/5 (2.60) winner for us. Before that they were 3/1 (4.00) underdogs and also won the Most Cards & Booking Points. Clearly this is one of the most profitable and reliable bets in the Premier League right now. Let’s hope it remains our little secret.
Stat Pick:
- Southampton 0 Card Handicap @ 11/5 (3.20) – WON
Bournemouth’s strong Corners form continues...
Our analysis also suggested that Bournemouth shouldn’t have been the underdogs to win the Most Corners at Swansea. The stats showed Bournemouth had landed that bet in 6 out of 7 games and they proved true to form on Saturday afternoon, winning 5 corners to Swansea’s 4.
- Swansea have failed to win the Most Corners in all 7 of their Home games
Stat Pick:
- Corners Match Bet – Bournemouth @ 6/5 – WON
If only it was down to the BBC...
Our Picks produced an overall profit at the weekend, and it could have been even more if Sky Sports shared the same Man of the Match opinions at the BBC...
I’ve been following the Man of the Match markets recently, and Tottenham & England youngster Dele Alli looked the value at 15/2 (8.50) against West Ham on Sunday.
Alli won over the BBC reporters, but bookies settle that market by the Sky Sports announcement – and that went to 4/1 (5.00) pre-match favourite Harry Kane, who scored twice in Spurs’ 4-1 win.
We weren’t far off with our selection there and I’ll be hunting out more big prices for us this weekend and throughout the season. At those odds we don’t expect to land a Value Pickwinner every week – the occasional payout will be more than enough to cover the losers in the long run, and if we keep getting the value than the rewards will come.
- Since the start of October our main Stats Picks have produced 9 winners from 15 selections, for 4.45 pts profit and a 30% ROI to level stakes
What the stats say after Week 13...
Here’s a round-up of some more of the top trends in the Premier League, all of which continued at the weekend...
- Chelsea’s last 6 Premier League games have been Over 3.5 Cards
- Leicester have scored in all 13 games – the only Premier League side to have done so
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 10 consecutive Premier League games
- Tottenham ‘Double Chance – Win or Draw’ bets have paid out 12 times in a row (unbeaten in 12 Premier League games)
- Aston Villa are without a win in 12 Premier League games – since the opening day of the season
- Time of First Goal – Before 27th Minute bets have paid out in 10 out of 13 West Ham games (77%)
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 11 out of 13 Swansea games (85%)
Plenty of highly-rated trends across a number of different teams and markets there – all of which will be in mind for your Weekend Picks email on Friday.
Coming up this week…
I’ll be back on Wednesday with your latest Spotlight article – shining a light on some more of the little-known and lucrative stats in the Premier League.
Followed by your Weekend Picks email on Friday, with the likes of Leicester v Man Utd and Tottenham v Chelsea on the fixture list...
- Remember, you can view our Team Stats for all 20 teams in over 30 betting markets on our website. And catch up on all the latest emails and Spotlight features in the archive.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
