Weekend Picks - Boxing Day value at 3/1...

Thursday 24th December 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Ighalo underrated at 3/1...
• Keep Man Utd in your Corner...
• Man City value to make it 13 in a row... 

Christmas is here...

The festive fixture lists gets underway with a full round of Premier League games on Saturday. Three Boxing Day bets catch the eye at the prices available...

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

We’re kicking off the Holiday Season with a great value price for one of the league’s form strikers...

Ighalo underrated at 3/1...

Chelsea v Watford – Anytime Scorer

• Odion Ighalo has scored 12 of Watford’s 21 goals (57%) – the highest ‘percentage of team goals’ ratio in the Premier League
• Ighalo has landed Anytime Scorer bets in each of his last 4 games
• Chelsea have kept just 3 Clean Sheets in 9 Home games this season

Odion Ighalo at 3/1 looks the Anytime Scorer value this weekend...

The markets look to be underestimating Watford a little here – they’ve won 4 games in a row and sit 10 pts and 8 places above Chelsea in the table. Odion Ighalo has been instrumental in Watford’s recent 4-game winning run, scoring 5 of their 9 goals – and he’s kept that scoring rate up all season so far.

The likes of Ighalo, Jamie Vardy (Leicester), Riyad Mahrez (Leicester), Romelu Lukaku (Everton) and Oliveri Giroud (Arsenal) are all on our radar for Scorer bets right now. But the fact that Watford travel to a ‘big-name’ side this weekend means Ighalo is by far the biggest price on offer from that set of players. Giroud, for example, is 5/4 (2.25) to score at Southampton.

There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...

• For example, Leicester are our top-rated team for Both Teams to Score bets – but that option is short odds-on at just 4/7 (1.57) at Liverpool this weekend. Better value prices can be found elsewhere...

Two prices standout in the Corners and Match Result markets...

Keep Man Utd in your Corner...

Stoke v Man Utd (TV) – Most Corners

• Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 71% of games, including 6 out of 9 Away games
• Stoke have won Most Corners in just 4 of 17 games this season (24%)

Man Utd are our 2nd top team for Most Corners bets and can maintain their record here...

Man Utd have won 7, 8 and 10 Corners in their last 3 Away games and the stats suggest they are the rightful favourite for the Corners Match Bet here. United also have the highest Possession average in the Premier League, at 57.4%. Stoke managed just 1 corner at Home v Man City recently, and just 1 corner v Chelsea, too.

City value to make in 13 in a row...

Man City v Sunderland – Match Result & Both Teams to Score

• Bets on the Win & Both Teams to Score have paid out in Man City’s last 12 wins in all competitions
• Man City haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 12 Home games in all comps

Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score offers much better value than the standard Home Win price here...

City have won 9 of their last 10 Home games but have struggled to stop opponents scoring – and have failed to keep a single Clean Sheet in 8 games while club captain and defensive leader Vincent Kompany has been out injured.

Kompany could be back for this one but the stats still suggest backing Sunderland to get on the score-sheet is the way to go – Sunderland have found the net in recent defeats Away at Chelsea (3-1), Arsenal (3-1) and Everton (6-2).

I’ll be back on Sunday 27th December with your stats analysis & betting Picks for the next round of games. Until then, have a very Merry Christmas...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk