Weekend Picks - including Tottenham v Man City...
Friday 25th September 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Premier League – Week 7...
- Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks – recommended bets....
- Including First Scorer picks at 5/1 and 11/2...
Welcome to your Prem10 Weekend Preview...
Eight of this weekend’s 10 Premier League fixtures take place on Saturday, with the two live TV games featuring in our analysis and picks today...
Tottenham v Man City (Sat 12.45pm, BT Sport) throws up a strong Corners trend for us, followed by Newcastle v Chelsea (5.30pm Sky Sports) where the Cards & Bookings stats are on our radar.
Elsewhere there are stats and prices that catch the eye at Watford, West Brom and Southampton. See below for all this weekend’s analysis and advice.
The stats you need to know...
Starting with the Saturday lunchtime game on BT Sport...
Tottenham v Man City (TV) – Most Corners/ Corner Handicap
- Tottenham have won the Most Corners in all 6 of their Premier League games this season (100%)
- Man City haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their 3 Away games
- Tottenham won the Most Corners in this fixture last season, Home and Away
- Man City won the Most Corners in just 4 out of 9 Away games v Top Half sides last season (44%)
- Tottenham won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Home games v fellow Top 5 sides last season
City are capable of racking up huge Corner tallies, especially at Home or when they’re a goal down. However the bookies have slightly overrated the Premier League leaders by making them the odds-on favourites for the Most Corners at Tottenham...
Spurs have solid Home Corners stats and those figures hold up even when they face the top teams (winning the Most Corners 7-4 v Arsenal in the League Cup midweek, the latest example). Tottenham +1 Corner Handicap pays out if Tottenham win the Most Corners or if it’s a Corners tie – and that looks a good Stats Pick about a side that have landed Most Corners bets in 6 out of 6 Premier League games so far. Best price 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power. See Stats Picks below. |
Tottenham v Man City (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- Man City received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 14 of their 19 Away games last season (74%)
- Bets on Man City Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 2 of their 3 Away games so far in 2015/16
- Tottenham have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 1 of their 3 Home games so far
- Bets on opponents to win the Most Cards/ Booking Points paid out in 3 out of 4 Tottenham Home games v fellow Top 5 sides last season, including v Man City
- Since the start of last season Man City have averaged over 1 Yellow Card (10+ pts) more than opponents per Away game
Man City Most Booking Points/ 0 Card Handicap was one of the most profitable Away bets in the Premier League last season and so far the signs are good for that trend continuing. However most of the key stats highlighted above come from the 2014/15 formbook and I’d like to see a bit more City form in the book before making this bet a regular Pick this season.
Another encouraging sign is the fact that despite the Away factor and the stats, Bet365 and William Hill make Man City the odds-against underdogs to land this bet in this game at 6/5 (2.20) and 5/4 (2.25) respectively. No Bet this time, but one to watch for sure.
Man Utd v Sunderland – Team with Most Bookings
- Man Utd haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 10 games in all comps this season
- Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 4 of their 6 PL games
- Last season bets on Sunderland to win the Most Cards/ Booking Points paid out in 14 out of 19 Away games (74%)
- Sunderland have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League this season with a total of 16 Yellow Cards and 1 Red Card from 6 games played
- Last season Sunderland averaged 2.0 Cards per Away game (20 pts) more than opponents, and so far this season they have maintained that 2-Card average margin
We successfully backed Man Utd’s opponents (Southampton) in this market last weekend, and the stats say you won’t find a much better match for a Most Cards/ Booking Points bet right now than Sunderland. This looks one of the best stats bets of the weekend, but the prices don’t appeal here with Sunderland odds-on at 1/2 (1.50) with Bet365 and 4/7 (1.57) with William Hill. No bet for me.
Stoke v Bournemouth – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 out of 3 Stoke Home games this season
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of Stoke’s 6 Premier League games
- Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 out of 6 Bournemouth games so far
- Stoke Home games are averaging 6.7 Total Cards; Bournemouth Away games 4.4
A promising set of ‘high Cards’ stats here, but the market is set at Over 4.5 Cards rather than the standard 3.5 Cards and it’s a bit too early in the season to be confidently betting on a higher-than-usual line. No bet.
Newcastle v Chelsea (TV) – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 out of 6 Newcastle games, with Over 4.5 Cards bets paying out in 2 of their 3 Home games
- Last season there were at least 3 Yellow Cards (30+ Booking Points) in 87% of Newcastle’s Premier League games
- Over 4.5 Cards bets paid out in both meetings between Newcastle and Chelsea last season
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 out of 6 Chelsea games, and all 3 Away games
- Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 out of 6 Chelsea games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 5 Premier League games that Referee Martin Atkinson has taken charge of this season
Stats from all angles point to a ‘high Cards’ game here – with the teams, fixture, Home v Away and Referee stats all leading us to an ‘Over’ bet in the Total Cards and Booking Points markets. Odds of 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365 for Over 4.5 Cards look a bit stingy though, and there is little value in taking odds-on about the high line. No bet.
Watford v Crystal Palace (TV) – Time of First Goal/ Half Time Result
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute have paid out in 5 out of 6 Palace games this season, and in all 3 of their Away games
- Watford’s 3 Home games have produced just 1 goal in total so far
- 4 of Watford’s last 5 Premier League games have been 0-0 at Half Time
- Palace’s last 5 games in all comps have been 0-0 at Half Time
All of newly-promoted Watford’s games have been tight affairs so far, with 3 draws from 6 games and 4 out of 6 going Under 2.5 Goals. The Time of First Goal stats catch the eye here with an ‘After’ bet in mind, but the bookies are thinking along similar lines and have nudged the Goal Time marker up from the standard 27 Minutes to After 29th Minute at Paddy Power and as big as 33 Mins with Boylesports...
The Half Time Draw appeals though, available at Evens (2.00) or bigger across the board. That bet has paid out in 5 Palace games in a row and Watford look a great match-up for a low-scoring or 0-0 First Half. Half Time – Draw best price 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365, Stan James, Betway, Bwin. See Stats Picks below. |
And in the Monday Night Game at The Hawthorns...
West Brom v Everton (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- West Brom have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 4 of their 6 league games
- Everton have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 6 games
- Last season Everton picked up the Most Cards/ Bookings in just 8 of their 28 league games (21%)
- West Brom have received twice as many Yellow Cards as Everton this season (16 v 8)
West Brom look a solid pick here, with Everton rarely coming out top when it comes to Most Cards & Bookings. Two markets with different names available here but the same price of 13/10 (2.30) available in both cases – West Brom Most Booking Points with William Hill or West Brom 0 Card Handicap with Bet365. See Stats Picks below. |
For bigger odds, one man stands out in particular in the First Scorer betting this weekend...
Southampton v Swansea – First Scorer
- Graziano Pelle has scored 4 of Southampton’s 7 Premier League goals this season (57%)
- Pelle has landed First Scorer bets in 3 out of 6 games
- Backing Pelle First Scorer in every game has given 12 pts profit if backed to level stakes at odds of 5/1
- Since joining Southampton last season, Pelle has scored 14 of his 18 Premier League goals in Home games (88%)
- Swansea haven’t scored the First Goal of the game in any of their last 3 league games
No player in the Premier League has provided more First Scorer payouts than Graziano Pelle this season, and his fantastic Home record puts him top of the list for a Scorer bet this weekend....
Pelle is 4/1 (5.00) with some firms but is available at 5/1 (6.00) in the First Scorer market with Skybet, Betfred, Ladbrokes and William Hill. See Value Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
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Tottenham v Man City – Tottenham +1 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365
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Watford v Crystal Palace – Half Time – Draw @ 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365
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West Brom v Everton – West Brom 0 Card Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365, or West Brom Most Booking Points @ 13/10 with William Hill
Value Picks – the pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Southampton v Swansea – First Scorer – G.Pelle @ 5/1 (6.00) with William Hill
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games...
West Brom v Everton is live on Sky Sports on Monday night – I’ll be back on Tuesday with a review of all the latest stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
