Prem10 Logo

Spotlight - What's the most common Correct Score?

Wednesday 25th November 2015

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

  • The most common score in the Premier League...
  • The most profitable Correct Score bets...
  • Coming up Friday – weekend Stats Picks and Value Picks...

In recent Spotlight emails we’ve looked at First Scorer and Man of the Match markets. Today I’m looking at another potential source of big-price payouts – Correct Scores...

In the Spotlight:

Correct Score betting...

I’ve gathered together the full lists of Premier League scores from this season and last season, and applied the general odds available in the Correct Score market.

The findings provide us with some useful answers to the following questions:

  • What is the most common score in the Premier League?
  • What is the most profitable Correct Score bet?
  • Which teams should we be looking to bet on?

Premier League – Correct Score stats...

Let’s starts with the overall stats. Here are the most common scores this season, along with their profitability if backed to level stakes...

2015/16 to date (130 games played):

CORRECT SCORE

Number of results

Strike rate %

Example odds

Profit to 1 pt level stakes

Return on Investment (ROI)

1-0

25

19.23%

8/1

-35 pts

-13%

2-1

17

13.08%

10/1

-73 pts

-28%

2-0

14

10.77%

12/1

-78 pts

-30%

3-0

12

9.23%

14/1

-80 pts

-31%

0-0

12

9.23%

10/1

2 pts

2%

2-2

12

9.23%

14/1

50 pts

38%

Other

12

9.23%

n/a

n/a

n/a

3-1

10

7.69%

20/1

-50 pts

-19%

1-1

10

7.69%

7/1

-50 pts

-38%

3-2

6

4.62%

28/1

-86 pts

-33%

Those numbers tell us that the 1-0 score is the most common, averaging almost 2 results from every round of 10 games.

However, the most common score-line is not necessarily the most profitable. Backing anything ‘blindly’ is never to be recommended and as you can see, most scores would result in a loss if you covered them with some sort of blanket betting ‘strategy’ on every game and every team every week.

Those numbers do highlight the 2-2 draw as a profitable option so far this season, though, with 50 pts profit. And somewhat surprisingly to me, there have been more 2-2 draws than 1-1 draws.

What will be interesting is if that high-scoring Score Draw pattern continues, or if the 2-2 statistic falls in line with last season’s final results...

2014/15 season (380 games played):

CORRECT SCORE

Number of results

Strike rate %

Example odds

Profit to 1 pt level stakes

Return on Investment (ROI)

1-0

77

20.26%

8/1

-67 pts

-9%

2-1

61

16.05%

10/1

-89 pts

-12%

2-0

51

13.42%

12/1

-97 pts

-13%

1-1

37

9.74%

7/1

-84 pts

-22%

Other

33

8.68%

n/a

n/a

n/a

0-0

31

8.16%

10/1

-39 pts

-10%

3-1

29

7.63%

20/1

-430 pts

-57%

3-0

24

6.32%

14/1

-400 pts

-53%

2-2

22

5.79%

14/1

-50 pts

-13%

3-2

15

3.95%

28/1

-325 pts

-43%

That 2014/15 table makes it even clearer that backing any Correct Score blindly is a uniformly bad idea.

Last season’s numbers also help us iron out any discrepancies that might be in the current 2015/16 stats...

Comparisons – this season/ last season:

  • 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 remain the most common scores (in that order)
  • Fewer 1-1 draws so far this season
  • Higher rate of 2-2 draws and 3-0 wins so far this season

So far we’ve established that a 1-0 win is the most frequent score-line in the Premier League. And that there’s no ‘magic bullet’ Correct Score bet that can be blindly backed across all 380 games in a season to make a ‘guaranteed’ profit.

  • The most common score this season is the 1-0 win
  • The most profitable Correct Score so far this season is the 2-2 draw

But we need to dig a little deeper. We must narrow down the search. To discover which Correct Score bets produce long-term profits for particular teams...

Teams with the most frequent Correct Scores...

2015/16 to date – all teams played 13 games:

TEAM

Most frequent Correct Score

Number of results

Example odds

Profit to 1 pt level stakes

Return on Investment (ROI)

Chelsea

3-1 lose

3

20/1

50 pts

385%

Arsenal

3-0 win

3

14/1

32 pts

246%

Swansea

2-2

3

14/1

32 pts

246%

Crystal Palace

1-0 lose

4

8/1

23 pts

177%

Stoke

1-0 win

4

8/1

23 pts

177%

West Brom

1-0 win

4

8/1

23 pts

177%

Leicester

2-1 win

3

10/1

20 pts

154%

Man Utd

0-0

3

10/1

20 pts

154%

Sunderland

1-0 lose

3

8/1

14 pts

108%

Swansea

1-0 lose

3

8/1

14 pts

108%

Bournemouth

1-0 lose

3

8/1

14 pts

108%

Aston Villa

1-0 lose

3

8/1

14 pts

108%

Liverpool

1-1

3

7/1

11 pts

85%

Encouraging findings for us there – certain teams do produce an above average number of results with certain score-lines, which can provide profits over a sustained period.

A look at some of the most frequent team scores from last season provides more evidence...

2014/15 season – all teams played 38 games:

TEAM

Most frequent Correct Score

Number of results

Example odds

Profit to 1 pt level stakes

Return on Investment (ROI)

Tottenham

2-1 win

9

10/1

61 pts

161%

Sunderland

0-0

9

10/1

61 pts

161%

Chelsea

2-0 win

7

12/1

53 pts

139%

Arsenal

2-1 win

7

10/1

39 pts

103%

Man Utd

2-1

7

10/1

39 pts

103%

West Brom

1-0 win

7

8/1

25 pts

66%

Swansea

1-0 win

7

8/1

25 pts

66%

Chelsea

1-1

7

7/1

18 pts

47%

It’s perhaps too early in the current season to read too much into the Correct Score trends. We are not yet at the half-way point, just 13 games into the 38-game campaign.

I’ve only included teams in the 2015/16 list above that have had 3 or more payouts from one score-line – plenty of teams have results that have paid out twice so far that would also show an overall profit at this stage.

But last season’s figures do demonstrate that Correct Score trends can prove profitable over a sustained period, and that one or two teams are likely to emerge ahead of the rest...

West Brom are the standout team right now...

Comparisons – this season/ last season:

  • Chelsea 2-0 win – 2 already this season (13 pts profit, 100% ROI), and 7 results last season (53 pts profit, 139% ROI)
  • West Brom 1-0 win – their top score-line last season (25 pts profit, 66% ROI), and also so far this season (23 pts, 177% ROI) 

That West Brom trend tells us something about the way they play under Tony Pulis. West Brom have won 5 games this season and 4 of those wins have been 1-0. That’s useful information to have on your side – with the Correct Score providing a route to much bigger payouts than backing West Brom in the standard Match Result (to win) market.

Chelsea are an interesting one. So far this season the champions have lost an alarming 7 of 13 games, with bets on their opponents to win 3-1 proving a real money-spinner. I’m yet to come across anyone that ‘predicted’ those 3-1 defeats, though...

Last season the 2-0 win was the Chelsea Correct Score bet to be on, and with 2 of their 4 wins this season being by that score-line, the 2-0 win could soon overtake that ‘3-1 defeat’ trend.

Also worthy of note are Swansea – who have been involved in a quarter of all the 2-2 draws that we’ve seen in the Premier League this season. They only had one 2-2 in the whole of last season, but Swansea have already had 3 in 2015/16, and with just 2 clean sheets from 13 games so far we could yet see more high-scoring draws involving the Swans in the weeks ahead...

In conclusion...

In answer to the three questions posed at the top of today’s email:

  • What is the most common score in the Premier League? 1-0...
  • What is the most profitable Correct Score bet? 2-2 this season – but don’t back ANY score blindly across all games...
  • Which teams should we be looking to bet on? West Brom (1-0 win), Chelsea (2-0 win), Swansea (2-2 draw)...

I’ll be looking to use the stats to home in on a few Correct Score bets in our weekly Value Picks, when the match and price suits...

Coming up Friday – your weekend Stats Picks and Value Picks...

This week’s big TV games include Leicester v Man Utd and Tottenham v Chelsea.

I’ll be back in touch on Friday with your weekend preview including my Stats Picks and Value Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated trends and the best value prices from across the weekend fixtures...

I’ll be back on Friday. Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk

We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this email. All prices correct at time of sending to subscribers.

Copyright © Oxfordshire Press, 2015.