Weekend Picks - 4/1 Leicester catch the eye...

Friday 26th February 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• 4/1 Leicester catch the eye...
• Top-rated Tottenham a standout bet...
• Saints value for Most Cards...

After a 3/1 payout from the last round of games, we’re going in search of betting value again this weekend...

The stats lead us to three fixtures in particular – with standout opportunities at Tottenham, Southampton and Leicester...

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

With our Weekend Picks, I’m always looking for a value price. The stats lead us so far – but I’ll only be recommending a bet when my analysis and opinion suggests the odds are in our favour....

Leicester catch the eye at 4/1...

Leicester v Norwich - Weekend Specials – Highest Scoring Team

• Norwich have conceded a total of 18 goals in their last 6 games – conceding 2+ goals in each of those games

Our search for value takes us across the full spectrum of markets, and a Specials bet catches the eye this weekend...

Norwich are spiralling towards the relegation zone with 5 defeats from 6 games, and their woeful defensive record in recent weeks makes them a real contender to concede the most goals in the Premier League this weekend.

Top-of-the-table Leicester boast two of the division’s Top Scorers in Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez, have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 games.. and have found the net in 23 of 26 games this season – an unrivalled 88% strike-rate.

While Norwich have conceded in all 13 Away games this season – making them the only Premier League team without an Away Clean Sheet to their name.

Tottenham, Liverpool, Bournemouth and Stoke (& Man City in the FA Cup) have all put 3 or more goals past Norwich since New Year’s Day. Leicester could add to that list this weekend – Coral make them odds-on at 3/5 (1.60) To Score 2+ Goals...

How to find this bet...

• From the Ladbrokes homepage, go to: Sports > Football > English > Weekend Premier League Specials

• On the Paddy Power website, go to: Sports > Football Betting > Football Specials > Premier League Specials – Team With Most Goals

Top-rated Tottenham a standout bet...

Tottenham v Swansea – Corner Handicap

• Tottenham -3 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in their last 9 Home games in all comps
• -4 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in their last 4 Premier League Home games

Spurs are a strong pick on the Corners stats here...

The League Stats on our site show Tottenham are our top-rated Most Corners team this season (85% Home record), with Swansea low down the list with a 31% Most Corners strike-rate.

Bet365 have priced up Tottenham with a -4 Corner Handicap for Sunday’s game – which the stats suggest is well within their capabilities – but in terms of value here I prefer the smaller -3 Corner Handicap line available at similar prices...

Saints value for Most Cards...

Southampton v Chelsea – Most Cards

• Opponents have received the Most Cards in Chelsea’s last 6 games in all comps
• Chelsea haven’t received the Most Cards in 11 Away games in all comps

Southampton look a good price for the Most Cards on Saturday...

The Saints have been sinners this season – they are our top-rated team for Most Cards/ Booking Points bets (62%).

Chelsea on the other hand have been well-disciplined under Guss Hiddink, picking up just 4 Yellow Cards in total across their 6 most recent games – including 3 occasions where Chelsea received no Cards at all.

Southampton players have collected twice as many Cards as Chelsea in that period. And while chief offender Victor Wanyama (3 Red Cards this season) is suspended for this one, the stats still point to the Home team in the Most Cards/ Bookings markets.

William Hill are odds-on at 19/20 (1.95) for Southampton to get Most Booking Points, but the odds-against prices look good value...

I’ll be back on Monday with our weekly stats review...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk