Champions League Final Preview - best bets for Real v Atletico...
Friday 27th May 2016
In your Prem10 – Champions League special email today:
- Champions League final preview – Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid...
- Cash-in on the Cards markets...
- A taste of things to come...
The Premier League season may be over but we have some big-time football to keep us busy this summer...
Last weekend we looked at the FA Cup final, with 9/2 (5.50) Anytime Scorer Juan Mata continuing the trend for midfielders scoring in cup finals...
This week we have the Champions League final in our sights.
Below you’ll find my full Champions League Final Preview and bet analysis for Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid, straight from my dedicated Champions League Bet service (read on to find out more about that for next season)...
If it’s anything like the 2014 final between these two sides – then we’ll be in for a cracker.
Your Champions League Final Preview...
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Saturday, 7.45pm – San Siro Stadium, Milan
Live on BT Sport (free to air)
Starting with the Match Result and To Lift the Trophy markets, Real Madrid are the favourites to win in 90 minutes at 6/4 (2.50), and 8/11 (1.73) to be crowned champions.
Atletico are slight underdogs at 23/10 (3.30) on the night and 11/10 (2.10) to go home with the trophy.
Having backed both 11/2 Real and 20/1 Atletico in my Champions League Bet service pre-season, we’re already guaranteed a winner and Each Way payout from the Outright Winner market, so we’re not betting on the match result.
However if you’re looking for an eye-catching price then the 7/1 Enhanced Odds on Real Madrid to lift the trophy looks one of the best offers available this weekend – you can get that special price with Coral.
Last 10 Stats:
Comparing stats from the Last 10 Champions League finals and the Last 10 meetings between Real and Atletico allows us to map out what kind of game we can expect tomorrow night...
Stats & betting markets apply to Normal Time only
Last 10 Champions League Finals:
- Both Teams to Score – 8 out of 10
- Under 2.5 Goals – 5 out of 10
- Under 4.5 Cards – 8 out of 10
Last 10 Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid games:
- Both Teams to Score – 4 out of 10
- Under 2.5 Goals – 7 out of 10
- Over 6.5 Cards – 9 out of 10
The stats say we can expect goals in the final, but the head-to-head record puts a dampener on that.
Scorers:
With a tight game expected we should tread carefully in the Anytime Scorer markets...
Real’s top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo and Atletico’s leading scorer Antoine Griezmann are the obvious choices at the top of the betting. But at odds of 11/8 (2.38) for Ronaldo and 2/1 (3.00) at best for Griezmann, we should take note of the less than convincing head-to-head form here:
- Ronaldo has scored in just 2 of his last 10 appearances v Atletico (in comparison, he’s scored in 6 of his last 10 games v Barcelona)
- Griezmann has scored in just 2 of 8 Atletico v Real games
Add in both teams’ impressive defensive records in the competition this season and the case for avoiding the favourites gathers weight. Real have kept Clean Sheets in 10 of their 12 Champions League games (83%), while Atletico have kept Clean Sheets in 8 of 12 (67%).
In the 2014 final we had an 8/1 payout in my Champions League Bet service from Real defender Sergio Ramos finding the net. Back then Ramos was in a bit of a purple patch in front of goal. He’s only scored twice this season though and that explains his bigger price this weekend, 9/1 & 10/1 in general. (If you do fancy Ramos to repeat the trick, he’s a best price 12/1 with William Hill).
Ramos is of more interest to me in the Cards markets this time – see below...
Cards & Booking Points:
The numbers above show there’s a history of ‘low Cards’ bets paying out in Champions League finals (Under 4.5 Cards). But the 2014 final between Real & Atletico is the one that really bucked the trend with 7 Yellow Cards in normal time...
The rivalry trumps the cup final stats for me.
And the bookies agree, with Bet365 going Over 7.5 Cards @ 11/10 (2.10) and 888 Sport going one lower with Over 6.5 Cards @ 5/6 (1.83).
The Over 6.5 Cards bet would be my choice in that market based on the stats, but personally I won’t be backing any odds-on bets for the final. Two players do however standout in the Cards markets...
Cash-in on the Cards markets...
English Referee Mark Clattenburg will have his work cut out dealing with the antics of the Real and Atletico players. Two names standout as serial offenders for going in the Ref’s book...
- Real defender Sergio Ramos has been booked in 8 of his last 10 games v Atletico Madrid
- Atletico defender Diego Godin has been booked in 6 of his last 10 games v Real Madrid
Ramos and Godin both received Yellow Cards in the Champions League final in 2014, and were both booked in both La Liga meetings between their clubs this season...
With everything to play for is this game I like the look of both players in the To Be Shown a Card markets. Ramos landed this bet within 27 minutes in that Champions League final, and both men have got strong previous & recent form for getting booked in this fixture.
At the prices, Ramos and Godin are my two Picks for the final...
- Sergio Ramos – To get a Card – YES @ Evens (2.00) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Betfred, Skybet
- Diego Godin – To get a Card – YES @ 6/4 (2.50) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/5 (2.20) Betfred, 11/10 (2.10) Skybet, Evens (2.00) BetVictor
It’s worth noting that 888 Sport have the best prices there and are also offering Triple the Odds on Your First Bet.
And if you’re looking for bigger prices...
Then you might want to head to the more speculative First Player Carded market... Ramos is a best price 9/1 (10.00) with Betfred, Coral and Skybet, while Godin is 12/1 (13.00) with Betfred and 10/1 (11.00) in general.
A taste of things to come...
Coming soon – I’ll be making a BIG announcement regarding your service for next season. Today’s free Champions League advice is a big hint as to what’s in store for your enhanced Prem10 service next season. Watch this space.
That’s all from me for today. Enjoy the final!
P.S
I’ll also be back next week with some big Euro 2016 news for you...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
