Review - Chelsea get Hammered, Leicester get pizza...
Monday 26th October 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- The stats did their job...
- What the stats say after Week Ten…
- Coming up this week…
The stats did their job at the weekend – leading us to several standout trends and opportunities. But I managed to talk myself out of a few would-be winners with our weekend Picks...
Hindsight is a wonderful thing...
Avoiding the Draw at 5/2 (3.50) and the bigger price 1-1 Correct Score at 13/2 (7.50) in the Liverpool v Southampton game was the most frustrating ‘what could have been’ result. The stats highlighted Liverpool’s above average number of Draws and recent spate of 1-1 score-lines. But with Jurgen Klopp in the first days of his reign at Anfield, I treated that trend with a pinch of salt.
To put it in terms of football talk: we did the hard work but failed with the ‘final ball.’ A winger jinxing past tackles to reach the by-line... only for the cross into the box to ultimately pea-roll out for nothing more than a goal kick.
What the stats say after Week Ten…
On a positive note our statistical trends continue to identify bets with impressive strike rates. Perhaps you took the plunge in some of the markets listed below and did better than me...
Chelsea get Hammered...
West Ham 2 Chelsea 1:
West Ham are proving one of the surprise packages of the season. After three Away wins at Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City at the start of the season (a 1,000/1 three-timer), the Hammers claimed yet another big scalp with a 2-1 win over Chelsea at odds of 3/1 (4.00)...
In last week’s Spotlight email we highlighted Chelsea’s dodgy record when playing immediately after a midweek European Away game – and advised staying away from Chelsea’s short Match Result price of 10/11 (1.91) to win at West Ham.
A couple of strong stats trends also continued in that game – highlighted in our Friday Preview but not making the cut for our betting Picks:
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 8 out of 10 West Ham games (80%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 5 Chelsea Away games (100%)
- Time of First Goal – Before 27th Minute bets have paid out in 9 out of 10 West Ham games (90%)
We did manage to successfully target one West Ham market with our Picks, with the Corners Match Bet paying out for the 4th time in 5 Home games (80%). West Ham won 7 corners, Chelsea 4.
Chelsea have won the Most Corners in just 3 Premier League games this season (30%). But that’s probably low on their list of concerns right now – seeing as they’ve lost 50% of games, had a man Sent Off at the weekend and also saw both their manager Jose Mourinho AND his assistant sent to the stands. We should keep a close eye on the bookies’ Corners markets as Chelsea may continue to be overrated in that department.
Stats Pick:
- Team with Most Corners – West Ham @ 11/10 – WON
Leicester get pizza...
Leicester 1 Crystal Palace 0:
Leicester’s run of 11 consecutive Both Teams to Score games in all comps came to an end at the weekend.
Palace failed to find the net despite a great Away record under Alan Pardew, and that first Leicester Clean Sheet of the season means Claudio Ranieri can finally come good on his promise to take his players out for pizza. But seeing as the Leicester fans were singing We Want Pizza, this might not be the last we hear of that food-based incentive scheme.
Stats Pick:
- Both Teams to Score @ 2/3 – LOST
A first for the Swans...
Aston Villa 1 Swansea 2:
In Wednesday’s Spotlight email we also focused on an anomaly in Swansea’s stats – 100% of games had gone Over 3.5 Cards but Swansea hadn’t received the Most Cards in any of those games...
We consequently scrubbed out a bet on the higher Over 4.5 Cards line here and went for the better price on Villa to receive the Most Cards. As fate would have it, the 100% trend continued with 5 Yellow Cards (50 Booking Points) in the game – and Swansea picked up the Most Cards (3-2) for the first time all season.
Stats Pick:
- Aston Villa 0 Card Handicap @ 13/10 – LOST
And with it being one of those weekends where we danced around with the stats but ended going home from the disco alone, the Under 10.5 Corners figures also proved true to form in that game. Although with exactly 10 Corners in the game and the bet avoided purely on price reasons (odds of 1/2 – 1.50 – deemed too short for us to get involved), that’s hardly going to go down in the diary as one that got away...
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have now paid out in 80% of Villa games, and in 8 of Swansea’s last 9 games
Derby day deadlock...
Man Utd 0 Man City 0:
If the Liverpool v Southampton 1-1 Correct Score had gone down as our Value Pick we’d have been celebrating a 13/2 (7.50) payout on Sunday – as it was I found myself sulking through the 0-0 bore draw between Man Utd and Man City, with little opportunity for Kevin De Bruyne to repeat last week’s Anytime Scorer payout on Jamie Vardy...
Value Pick:
- Anytime Scorer – Kevin De Bruyne @ 14/5 – LOST
Going back to Liverpool – they have now drawn 8 of their last 9 games in all comps, with the 1-1 score-line in a remarkable 7 of those 9 games. I’ll continue to monitor and highlight Correct Score trends like those throughout the season, with the aim of finding us a good few winners at attractive prices.
We were however completely justified in avoiding the Total Cards markets for the weekend’s three derby matches. The ‘last 10 meetings’ form suggested Bet365’s ‘Over’ line was too high in each case, and although we saw two red Cards, only one of the three games would have rewarded ‘Over’ backers:
West Ham 2 Chelsea 1
Total Cards market: Over 4.5 Cards
Previous meetings Over 4.5 Cards = 2 out of 10
Weekend result: 9 Cards (7 Yellow 1 Red) (95 Booking Points)
Sunderland 3 Newcastle 0
Total Cards market: Over 5.5 Cards
Previous meetings Over 5.5 Cards = 6 out of 10
Weekend result: 4 Cards (2 Yellow 1 Red) (45 pts)
Man Utd 0 Man City 0
Total Cards market: Over 5.5 Cards
Previous meetings Over 5.5 Cards = 4 out of 10
Weekend result: 4 Cards (4 Yellow) (40 pts)
Coming up this week…
I’ll be back on Wednesday with your Spotlight email – unearthing the current profitable stats and little-known betting trends in the Premier League.
Followed by your Weekend Picks email on Friday with all your weekend stats, analysis and betting advice. Including Chelsea v Liverpool...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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