Weekend Picks - Stoke the value at 7/1...

Friday 27th November 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Stoke 1-0 at 7/1....
• Second Half stats lead the way at Norwich...
• Man City to boss the Corners...
• 4/1 ‘Black Friday’ bargain on Jamie Vardy... 

The TV talk is all about the ‘top of the table’ clash between Leicester and Man Utd on Saturday night – but the stats say the betting value is to be found elsewhere...

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

In Wednesday’s Spotlight email we looked at Correct Score trends – and one of the top-rated teams look a good fit for a 1-0 win this week...

Stoke 7/1 for another 1-0 payout...

Sunderland v Stoke – Correct Score:

• Sunderland have lost 2 of their last 5 games 1-0
• Stoke’s last 6 games have been Under 2.5 Goals – winning 4 of them 1-0
• Stoke have kept 5 Clean Sheets in 6 games
• Stoke are 2nd in the Premier League Last 6 Form table – 4 wins from 6, and 3 wins from 4 Away
• 4 of Stoke’s 5 wins this season have been 1-0

The stats make Stoke a standout bet for a low-scoring Away win here – with odds of 7/1 (8.00) appealing for the 1-0 Correct Score...

Stoke have kept 4 Clean Sheets in a row on the road, winning 3 of those games 1-0. The Correct Score market offers us the best chance of a healthy payout here – Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) while the Stoke Clean Sheet is 13/8 (2.63), with the Win To Nil option at 11/4 (3.75).

No team have had more Correct Score payouts than Stoke’s 4 this season, and backing the 1-0 win to level stakes at 7/1 has produced 19 pts profit for a 146% Return on Investment (ROI).

Opposing Sunderland with the 1-0 score-line has also proved fruitful, returning 11 pts profit for an 85% ROI.

There are stacks of highly-rated stats, bets and trends in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at an appealing price...

• Southampton, for example, have been a cash cow for us in the Most Bookings market in recent weeks – and have landed that bet 8 times in a row. But while we got a value price of 2/1 (3.00) for Southampton last week, the bookies make them just 8/11 (1.73) at best to make it 9 in a row at Man City this week

With all the stats and prices in mind, these two games tick the most boxes for me this weekend – including a better price involving Southampton...

Man City to boss the Corners...

Man City v Southampton – Corner Handicap:

• Man City -3 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 7 of their last 10 Premier League games
• Man City -3 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 games in all comps
• Man City have won the Most Corners in 6 out of 7 Home games (86%), with the -3 Corner Handicap paying out on all 6 occasions
• Southampton haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their 3 games v sides above them in the table this season

Man City are averaging 5 corners per Home game more than opponents – the -3 Corner Handicap requires them to win at least 4 corners more than Southampton and the stats say that’s a completely fair ask...

City are our joint-top ranked team for Most Corners bets at Home and the fact that they’ve covered the -3 Handicap in just as many games is a strong indicator for a bet here.

Second Half stats lead the way at Norwich...

Norwich v Arsenal (TV) – Highest Scoring Half:

• Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 5 of Norwich’s last 6 games, and in each of Arsenal’s last 5 games
• Norwich’s last 4 games have been 0-0 at Half Time
• The Second Half has been the Highest Scoring Half in 5 of Norwich’s 6 Home games (83%), and in their last 4 games overall
• The Second Half has been the Highest Scoring Half in 5 of Arsenal’s 7 Away games (71%)

There’s some value in the First Goal Time and Highest Scoring Half markets here.

The standard Before/ After line is 27 minutes but Paddy Power have dropped it to 24 mins for this game – hinting perhaps that the David v Goliath nature of this fixture (on paper) will result in an early goal for Arsenal...

The stats say that’s not the case, though. Arsenal were 0-0 at Half Time at both Watford and Swansea this month, before going on to win 3-0 in the second half on both occasions.

This is the first time Norwich have hosted one of 2014/15’s Top 6 sides at Home this season, but recent 0-0 Half Time results Away at Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool suggest Norwich can hold out Arsenal for a while here...

P.S

4/1 ‘Black Friday’ bargain on Vardy...

Premier League top scorer Jamie Vardy is gunning for the history books again on Saturday – looking to score for a record 11th successive game when his Leicester side take on Man Utd (5.30pm, Sky Sports).

Man Utd have kept 6 Clean Sheets in 7 games in all comps but Vardy has been taking down all-comers this season. He’s a general 6/4 (2.50) in the Anytime Scorer market. But if you’re keen on backing Vardy’s bid for glory, get yourself over to Ladbrokes where new customers can get an enhanced 4/1 (5.00) for Vardy to Score Anytime...

That’s certainly one of the best ‘Black Friday’ offers I’ve had in my inbox this week.

Ladbrokes will even refund your stake as a Free Bet if it loses. Check out the terms & conditions and take advantage of that 4/1 Ladbrokes price here.

Enjoy the games. I’ll be back on Monday with your weekend stats Review email...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
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