Spotlight - Cup conundrum for Klopp...

Friday 29th January 2016

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

• Cup conundrum for Klopp...
• February – the longest of months for Liverpool...
• Hammers on a hat-trick...

In the Spotlight today – Liverpool FC...

Cup conundrum for Klopp...

I think they call it ‘the price you pay for being successful’...

You may be forgiven for thinking Liverpool’s 5-4 win over Norwich last weekend was a Cup tie – but in fact that end-to-end humdinger was their sole Premier League fixture in a four-game run that takes in three different competitions...

February – the longest of months for Liverpool...

The above games are followed by a packed February that sees the Reds already scheduled to play six times across the Premier League and Europa League alone...

That fixture list doesn’t take into account a league game v Everton that will need to be rearranged, currently scheduled for Sun 28th Feb – the same date that they’ll be competing in the Capital One Cup final at Wembley.

And if Liverpool get past West Ham this weekend, they’ll have an FA Cup match scheduled for the weekend of 20th Feb, too...

In summary, Jurgen Klopp’s debut half-season sees his side currently fighting on four fronts – attempting to chase down an 8-point deficit on 4th place in the Premier League (to get Champions League qualification)... reaching the Capital One Cup final... still in the FA Cup... and not forgetting the Europa League (where the prize for winning is now a place in the hallowed Champions League).

Phew.

One thing’s for sure – that packed fixture list means Liverpool fans are certainly getting plenty of chances to watch their team on TV.

And with some significant players out injured – namely Philippe Coutinho, Daniel Sturridge and Dejan Lovren – Liverpool’s squad is already starting to creak. And there are busy times ahead...

Something’s got to give...

With a tough fixture list AND injury list to contend with, Liverpool should be on our radar as a team to oppose in the next month or so. When the Reds are priced up as the match favourite, there may be value in backing their opponent...

Hammers on a hat-trick...

Liverpool have been far from convincing in recent weeks, conceding four goals before scraping a win at relegation contenders Norwich in injury-time, and losing to Stoke in the cup but going through on Penalties after Extra Time.

• Liverpool won just one of their last four Premier League games. And one of their two defeats in that period was at West Ham...

We looked at West Ham’s strong 2015/16 record against ‘big clubs’ in last Wednesday’s Spotlight email. Since then the Hammers have drawn 2-2 with title contenders Man City.

This weekend West Ham are priced up as 3/1 (4.00) underdogs to win at Anfield in the FA Cup 4th Round.

We don’t know what side either team are going to play on Saturday, but considering West Ham have done the league double over Liverpool this season (2-0 Home, 0-3 Away) and won three of the last four meetings between the clubs – I wouldn’t go backing Liverpool at Even Money (2.00).

It pays to keep the fixture list in mind...

With league games to come at Leicester (top of the league), then Sunderland (fighting for their lives to avoid relegation) – life won’t be getting easier for Klopp’s side any time soon.

Maybe Liverpool’s Premier League results will suffer, with Cup glory the more obtainable target.

Maybe they’ll be inspired by the challenge ahead, the magic of the cup and the buzz of winning games with late goals and Penalty shootouts – and win the lot.

We don’t know.

But the point is this – Liverpool have a below-par first team right now, and an above-average amount of games to play. They may well represent bad value in the Match Result markets – especially when priced up as the match favourite.

We’ll be keeping an eye on Liverpool, and all the teams with Europe and the Cups on their mind, in our ongoing weekly stats and analysis.

I’ll be back on Tuesday with our Picks for the midweek games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk