Weekend Picks - including 4/1 Anytime Scorer value...
Friday 28th August 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- Week Four...
- Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
- Prem10 Picks – recommended bets....
- Including 4/1 Anytime Scorer value...
It’s still early days form-wise, but this weekend’s fixture list does look to have thrown up a few strong match-ups...
Our Stats Picks have provided us with 3 out of 4 winners so far this season – and 3 more stats catch the eye for a bet this weekend, including the Newcastle v Arsenal game on BT Sport (Saturday) and Swansea v Man Utd on Sky Sports (Sunday).
The bookies don’t always give us the market or price that we’re looking for but a total of 4 bets get the thumbs up and make the list for me this week – including a standout 4/1 for the Premier League’s early leader in the Top Scorer chart to find the net once again...
How your Prem10 service works:
- We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets
- I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
Kicking off with the Saturday lunchtime TV game at Newcastle...
Newcastle v Arsenal (TV) – Corner Handicap
- Newcastle won the Most Corners in 14 out of 19 Home games last season (74%)
- Arsenal won the Most Corners in less than half of their Away games (42%)
- Newcastle averaged 2.8 Corners per Home game more than opponents
- Bets on Newcastle +1 Corner Handicap would have paid out in each of the last 3 meetings between these sides at St James’ Park
- Bets on Newcastle +1 Corner Handicap have paid out in 9 of their 11 Premier League Home games played in 2015 to date (82%), and that includes payouts against the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham and Man Utd
The bookies make Away side Arsenal the Most Corners favourite here with a -1 Corner Handicap. But that bet hasn’t paid out in any of Arsenal’s 3 games Home or Away so far this season and Newcastle at Home have a strong Corner-winning record.
The stats say the +1 Corner Handicap for the Home team looks a bit of value here. Newcastle +1 Corner Handicap pays out if Newcastle win the Most Corners or if it’s a Corners ‘tie.’ Best price 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill, or Evens (2.00) with Skybet, Paddy Power. See Stats Picks below. |
Aston Villa v Sunderland – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 27 of Sunderland’s 38 Premier League games last season (71%), including this fixture at Villa Park where there were 5 Yellow Cards and 1 Red Card
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 3 of Villa’s games so far this season, with Total Cards scores of 7 Cards, 4 Cards and 6 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 2 of Sunderland’s 3 games so far (Total Cards = 6 in those 2 games)
- Last season Villa Home games averaged 4.3 Total Cards and Sunderland Away games averaged 4.5 Total Cards
Last weekend we were priced out of a ‘high Cards’ bet on Sunderland’s game v Swansea, with the bookies setting their Total Cards line at 4.5 Cards. This time we get the chance to bet Over 3.5 Cards but the problem is that while the line is the one we want, Bet365 are offering odds of just 8/13 (1.62).
That 8/13 price is a little too short for me at this early stage of the season – and my mind is made up by the fact that Robert Madley is the Referee here. As the Referee Stats on our site show, Madley was the lowest-ranked Ref last season averaging just 2.5 Cards per game. With Over 3.5 Cards bets paying out in just 2 of the 11 Premier League games that he took charge of (18%). No bet.
Bournemouth v Leicester – Anytime Scorer
- Bournemouth are yet to keep a Clean Sheet in the Premier League
- Riyad Mahrez has scored in all 3 of Leicester’s games so far
- Mahrez has scored 4 of Leicester’s 7 Premier League goals this season
- Mahrez’s 4 goals make him the early leader in the Premier League Top Scorer chart
Leicester winger Riyad Mahrez was a 3/1 (4.00) Anytime Scorer v Tottenham last weekend, so Betway’s standout price of 4/1 (5.00) along with the 7/2 (4.50) at Betfred catches the eye here...
Mahrez is proving Leicester’s main goal threat right now and although it’s way too early in the season to get carried away with any kind of winning trend or scoring streak, it’s worth noting that Mahrez is currently the Top Midfielder in the Premier League’s Player Performance ratings – suggesting his all-round contribution to games has been significant, and that those 4 goals from 3 starts may be more than just a flash in the pan. See Value Picks below. |
Chelsea v Crystal Palace – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 3 Chelsea games so far
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 3 Palace games so far
- Palace have scored in 9 of their last 11 games v Top Half sides
The stats make a lean towards Over 2.5 Goals here, but that’s not a bet that I’m happy to take at an odds-on price of just 7/10 (1.70) at best this weekend. Chelsea kept more Clean Sheets than any other Premier League team last season, with Over 2.5 Goals bets only paying out in 6 out of 19 games (32%) at Stamford Bridge. No bet.
Liverpool v West Ham – Total Corners
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in Liverpool’s last 2 games – with Total Corners tallies of 14 (Home v Bournemouth) and 15 (Away at Arsenal)
- Over 10.5 Corners bets paid in 63% of West Ham’s Away games last season, with an average Total of 11.5 Corners per Away game
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in each of the last 7 meetings between these sides at Anfield – with Over 11.5 Corners paying out in 6 of those 7
I don’t usually give priority to historical stats trends, but this fixture has been on my radar for several years for ‘high Corners’ bets. West Ham have never won at Anfield in the Premier League, but for me the Total Corners market is of more interest than odds of just 2/5 (1.40) for the Home Win...
Over 10.5 Corners bets have been landed with room to spare in Liverpool’s last 2 games and along with the Corners record between these two clubs, this looks another potential Over game. Best price Over 10 Corners (Alternative Corners market) at 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365, or Over 10.5 at the same price with 10Bet. Total Corners bets also available with the likes of Stan James, 888 Sport, BetBright. See Stats Picks below. |
Man City v Watford – Match Result
- Man City are top of the Premier League and the only team with a 100% record – Played 3 Won 3
- Man City were the top scorers in the Premier League last season and are top of the Goals For table so far this season – with 8 Goals from 3 games
- City won 74% of Home games last season
- Half Time/ Full Time bets paid out in 10 of City’s 14 Home wins last season, and in their first Home game of 2015/16 (1-0 HT 3-0 FT v Chelsea)
The stats say that that backing Man City in the Half Time/ Full Time market is a better way to profit from them than the straight Home Win – but that assumes that A) City will win, and B) that the HT/ FT price is significantly bigger than the Home Win price.
As far as this game is concerned, Premier League newcomers Watford are unbeaten so far, and despite City’s confident start to the season neither odds of 2/9 (1.22) for the Home Win or 8/13 (1.62) for the Half Time/ Full Time win are anything to get excited about here. No bet.
Swansea v Man Utd (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- Swansea have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 out of 20 Home games since the start of last season
- Bets on Man Utd to receive the Most Cards/ Bookings Points have paid out in each of their last 3 visits to Swansea
- Swansea averaged 1.5 Cards per Home game last season. Man Utd averaged 2.3 Cards per Away game
Swansea have a superb Cards record at Home and the visit of a ‘big name’ club like Man Utd means we get a decent, odds-against price about the Away side in the Most Cards/ Booking Points market here. With the inference or assumption being that the ‘underdog’ Swansea is more likely to commit the Most Fouls and therefore, receive the Most Cards (something that is not borne out by the stats, with both sides averaging 12 Fouls per game each this season).
The bookies make this pretty much a 50-50 game with Swansea at 11/8 (2.38) and Man Utd at 6/5 (2.20). The stats say the value is with the Away side though and Man Utd look a solid pick here at the price available. Man Utd 0 Card Handicap (Most Cards) is a best price 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365. Check also for Team with Most Booking Points or Bookings Match Bets with the like of William Hill, Skybet, Stan James and Bwin between now and kick off on Sunday afternoon. See Stats Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s recommended bets are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Newcastle v Arsenal – Newcastle +1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill
- Liverpool v West Ham – Over 10 Corners @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365
- Swansea v Man Utd – Man Utd 0 Card Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365
Value Picks – my pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Bournemouth v Leicester – Anytime Scorer – Riyad Mahrez @ 4/1 (5.00) with Betway
Latest Premier League odds here |
You’ll find more stats and bets on our site...
Your Prem10 Friday email gives you my take on the weekend’s standouts stats and betting opportunities. As well as my preview email, you can also view the latest 2015/16 Season stats and Previous Seasons data for all 20 Premier League teams on our website, helping you pick your own bets and find the best opportunities for any game...
- The site contains a wide range of stats and covers stacks of betting markets across the Match Result, Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points and Player/ Scorer categories. With all our stats pages designed to give you an at-a-glance guide to the bets that payout most often on every team
- You can also use the Head-2-Head tool to match up the Home v Away stats for any game. Click on each game on the weekend fixture list on our site to view the Head-2-Head. Or use the drop-down menus to select any two teams to compare
- Plus, there’s our overall League Stats pages – Team Stats, Player Stats and Referee Stats – where you can find out which teams/ players/ Referees provide the most winning bets in which markets. Those stats currently show the final figures in summary for last season, and we’ll be updating them for 2015/16 once a bit more form goes in the database
Log-in to take advantage of all our site has to offer at: www.Prem10.co.uk
I’ll be back on Tuesday with a review of the Bank Holiday weekend stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
