Spotlight - why John Terry is due a goal...

Wednesday 28th October 2015

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

• 100% trends...
• Reading between the lines...
• The stats say – John Terry is due a goal...
• Get treble the odds on your next bet...

In the spotlight...

We introduced our new Spotlight feature a fortnight ago, and the stats have pointed us in the direction of some profitable trends so far...

Last week our ‘record-after-European-Away-games’ figures correctly informed us that backing Chelsea to win at West Ham looked a bad idea at the short prices available –West Ham promptly won 2-1 at odds of 3/1 (4.00).

The week before the numbers told us that Leicester’s Jamie Vardy was not only the current top scorer in the Premier League – but also the top-rated player for Anytime Scorer bets. Since then Vardy has landed Anytime Scorer payouts in 2 out of 2 league games, at odds of 11/4 (3.75) and 13/8 (2.63) respectively.

This week we’re looking at some of the as yet faultless 100% trends in the Premier League – while also digging a little deeper to spot other opportunities, tucked a little further out of sight...

• Your Prem10 Spotlight email is a new midweek feature where we’ll be taking a look at some of the key stats and moneymaking trends from across the Premier League. The focus is on numbers – no Talksport gossip or back-page of the newspaper hype here

• The idea is to discover a few betting gems along the way, pointing out little-known patterns, statistics, team trends and betting markets where we can get the edge on the bookies

• All this additional research and data-probing will help us latch on to bets that may go on to feature in our Weekend Picks email and analysis every Friday, before each round of games

Under the spotlight today...

100% trends...

The Team Stats and Head-2-Head tool on our website tell us that these bets are all running at 100% winning strike rates this season:

• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 10 Swansea games
  
  
• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 out of 5 Chelsea Away games
  
  
• Tottenham have won the Most Corners in all 5 of their Away games

Some significant trends there – and those stats are sure to pop up again in our Weekend Preview on Friday.

Digging a little deeper, we can also use the stats to identify things that aren’t happening. And look to find betting opportunities around those outcomes...

Reading between the lines...

The base stats tell us things that are happening at a frequent strike rate. But it can also pay to read between the lines and look for events that are ‘missing’...

For example:

• Aston Villa have gone 9 games without a win in the Premier League this season
  
  
• Crystal Palace have not drawn any of their 10 Premier League games this season, or any of their last 23 league games in total
  
  
• Chelsea defender John Terry has averaged a goal every 8.4 games over the last five seasons – but has yet to score in 11 games in all competitions this season

We can draw different conclusions from those figures. Palace’s lack of draws says something about the way they play under Alan Pardew – a side prepared to risk getting no points from a game, in pursuit of 3 pts & the win, perhaps.

With that view in mind, looking for Win/ Lose bets on Palace appears the way to go, rather than adopting a tactic of waiting for the next Draw to occur.

• If you had laid (bet against) the Draw on Betfair for each of Palace’s last 23 Premier League games, you’d have made a profit on all 23 occasions

• This weekend Palace play Man Utd. It just so happens that none of the 4 league meetings between Palace and Man Utd in the last two seasons have ended in a draw (Man Utd have won all 4). Historians will also note that just 1 of 11 meetings between Palace and United have been drawn since 1995

John Terry is due a goal...

The opposite applies for the John Terry stats. By that I mean, rather than follow the trend, it may prove fruitful to go against it – and back him to get back among the goals...

Here’s a defender with a proven goal-scoring record, averaging a goal every eight-and-a-half games or so over the last five seasons – but without a goal to his name in 11 appearances so far this term...

John Terry – last five seasons:

Goals/ Appearances in all comps
8/ 49
2/ 47
6/ 28
7/ 53
4/ 50
Average = 1 goal every 8.4 games.
So far this season: no goals from 11 games.

Terry had a goal disallowed at Stoke in the cup last night and my reading of the stats is that he’s going to find the net again sooner rather than later.

He’s certainly available at attractive prices in the Scorer markets (8/1 Anytime, 25/1 First Scorer). And on paper this weekend’s game v Liverpool looks as good a game as any to keep him in mind for any speculative bets you may be having at fancy prices...

Three of the 5 goals that Chelsea scored v Liverpool last season (4 meetings in all comps) were scored by defenders (Terry, Gary Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic). With Terry opening the scoring in the most recent meeting in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge in May of this year.

In short, this week’s findings from our Spotlight analysis are...

• Winning streaks AND losing streaks can help us find profitable bets
• Crystal Palace don’t do Draws
• And John Terry is due a goal

View the latest stats on our site

The Team Stats and Head-2-Head pages on our website tell you the percentage strike rates – Home and Away – for over 30 betting markets for all 20 teams in the Premier League...

Including the Over 3.5 Cards, Over 2.5 Goals, Most Corners and Match Result stats mentioned above.

For example, showing Palace’s lack of Draws...

Team Stats page for Crystal Palace – Match Results, at www.Prem10.co.uk:

I’ll be back on Friday afternoon (by 2.00pm) with your Weekend Picks email – highlighting the standout stats and betting opportunities for this week’s games...

Including a further look at the big game between Chelsea and Liverpool.

P.S

Get treble the odds on your next bet...

An 888 Sport account is becoming a must-have this season – with Cards and Corners bets now offered on Premier League and TV games, along with all the standard football markets. Plus frequent ‘best price’ offers...

They’re offering treble the odds on your first bet, too. If you don’t have an account yet, take a look on the link below...

Get TREBLE the odds with your first bet at 888 Sport here >>

I’ll be back on Friday with your weekend advice.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk