Weekend Picks - King catches the eye at 14/5...
Friday 29th April 2016
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- King catches the eye at 14/5...
- Liverpool value for the Most Cards...
- Chelsea stats don’t match the prices...
All the talk is of title-chasing Leicester at Man Utd this weekend, but the Bank Holiday betting value looks to be elsewhere...
Three prices standout in the Anytime Scorer, Most Cards and Most Corners markets...
Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend.
King catches the eye at 14/5...
Everton v Bournemouth – Anytime Scorer
- Bournemouth’s Josh King has scored in 4 of his last 7 games
Josh King gave us a 3/1 winner against Liverpool a couple of weeks ago, and he looks Anytime Scorer value again against an Everton side with a weak defensive record...
Everton have kept just 2 Clean Sheets in 17 Home games this season – and they came against the Premier League’s current bottom two sides Aston Villa and Newcastle.
Bournemouth are having an entertaining end of season run-in with each of their last 7 games going Over 2.5 Goals. Forward Josh King has found the net in 4 of those 7 games, scoring 4 of his team’s 9 goals.
The formbook says Bournemouth have a good chance of scoring here, and King is the man to follow at the prices available. He’s as short as 7/4 (2.75) with Coral but over a point bigger elsewhere...
Anytime Scorer – Josh King is a best price 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James, 11/4 (3.75) with Betfred. |
Liverpool value for the Most Cards...
Swansea v Liverpool (TV) – Most Cards
- Liverpool have received Most Cards in 4 of their last 6 Away games
- Swansea have received Most Cards in just 2 of their last 10 Home games
The stats make Liverpool a pretty clear pick to get the Most Cards/ Booking Points at Swansea on Sunday. And the prices suggest there’s a bit of value available...
There’s a difference of opinion among the bookies here. William Hill go odds-on for Liverpool to win the ‘Most Booking Points’ at 3/4 (1.75), with BetBright even shorter at 8/13 (1.62). But we can get more appealing odds-against prices by shopping around...
Bet365 go a standout 11/8 (2.38) for Liverpool to land the ‘0 Card Handicap,’ with 888 Sport and Unibet a similar price for the ‘Most Cards.’
As I mentioned in our Spotlight feature a couple of weeks ago (13th April), these markets are often found under a variety of different names with different bookmakers. This game looks a good example of why it pays to hunt around. And even with Liverpool likely to rest first team players for next week’s Europa League Semi Final 2nd Leg, this looks a value price.
Liverpool – 0 Card Handicap is a best price 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365. Most Cards – Liverpool is 13/10 (2.30) with 888 Sport and Unibet. |
- To find this bet... on the Bet365 website, go to: Sports > Soccer > Barclays Premier League > Swansea v Liverpool > Cards > Card Handicap
Chelsea stats don’t match the prices...
Chelsea v Tottenham (TV) – Corner Handicap
- Chelsea have won the Most Corners in 5 of their last 6 Home games
- Opponents have won the Most Corners in 4 of Tottenham’s last 5 games, and in 4 of Tottenham’s last 5 Away games
Chelsea look value here, as the underdogs to win the Most Corners at Home...
Tottenham are the odds-on favourites in this market, despite being the Away team. The season-to-date figures say that’s fair enough with Spurs winning the Most Corners in 59% of Away games overall compared to Chelsea’s 47% Home record.
However the recent form above suggests a turnaround that’s not reflected in this weekend’s prices.
Tottenham need to go for the win of course, but the same could be have been said for the previous 5 games in recent weeks – where Spurs’ opponents went on to land the Most Corners bets on 4 out of 5 occasions (and ‘needing to win’ doesn’t simply equate to winning the Most Corners).
Also, if Leicester win the title by beating Man Utd on Sunday, then this game will no longer be too significant for Tottenham.
The current formbook says Spurs shouldn’t be the favourite in this market – Chelsea are the value at odds-against...
Team With Most Corners – Chelsea is a best price 11/8 (2.38) with William Hill. Most Corners – Chelsea is 13/10 (2.30) with 888 Sport & Unibet, Corners Match Bet – Chelsea is 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365. |
- To find this bet... on the William Hill website, go to Scorers and Corners > Team With Most Corners on the Chelsea v Tottenham page here
Weekend Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
- Everton v Bournemouth – Anytime Scorer – Josh King @ 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James
- Swansea v Liverpool – Liverpool 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365
- Chelsea v Tottenham – Team With Most Corners – Chelsea @ 11/8 (2.38) with William Hill
Latest Premier League odds here |
P.S
I’m always on the lookout for a good price, and this weekend’s Enhanced Price special at Boylesports is worth a mention on that front...
Chelsea are our top-rated team for Both Teams to Score bets at Home this season (71%).
And while that bet is a general 8/13 (1.62) for their game v Tottenham on Monday – you can get a massively enhanced 8/1 (9.00) if you open a new account with Boylesports...
Take advantage of that 8/1 bonus here >>
Enjoy the Bank Holiday football. I’ll be back on Tuesday with a review of the latest Premier League stats & results. Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
