Weekend Picks - why Vardy should be backed at 9/2...
Friday 4th December 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- Corners value for Spurs and Bournemouth...
- Vardy should be backed at 9/2...
- Southampton 3/1 value once again...
The fixture list looks a great fit for some of our top-rated teams this weekend...
Tottenham and Bournemouth both look to have favourable opponents on the ‘Team with Most Corners’ front. While odds of 3/1 and 9/2 catch the eye at Southampton and Swansea respectively.
Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...
Let’s kick off with the man everyone’s been talking about...
Vardy should be backed at 9/2...
Swansea v Leicester – First Scorer:
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored in a record 11 consecutive Premier League games – landing First Scorer bets in 6 of those games
- Opponents have opened the scoring in each of Swansea’s last 6 games
- Leicester have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games – with Vardy getting the first goal in 3 of those 5
Jamie Vardy’s exceptional scoring run will come to an end at some point – but the stats say the prices for it to continue this weekend are good value...
If this was Cristiano Ronaldo we’d be falling over ourselves to take the available First Scorer odds of 9/2 (5.50). In comparison, Ronnie is 2/1 (3.00) at best this weekend.
If referring to one of the world’s top two players is a stretch too far, then consider Vardy’s numbers in isolation: backing him to level stakes at 9/2 in all 14 Premier League games has produced 19 pts profit for a 136% Return on Investment this season.
A trip to an out-of-form Swansea looks an appealing fixture for Leicester and Vardy, too...
First Scorer – Jamie Vardy is a best price 9/2 (5.50) with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Boylesports. |
Southampton 3/1 value once again...
Southampton v Aston Villa – Most Bookings:
- Southampton have received the Most Bookings in 8 of their last 9 games
- Southampton Most Bookings bets have paid out in 11 of their 14 games (79%), including 6 out of 7 at Home (86%)
- Villa have received the Most Bookings in just 3 of their last 10 games
Southampton have been a regular (and profitable) pick for us this season. We have another opportunity to back them at an attractive price this weekend....
The Saints are our top-rated team for Most Cards/ Booking Points bets, and although their 8-game streak in that market came to an end at Chelsea last week, the run stands at 5 games in a row at Home.
Nothing in either team’s stats says Southampton should be as big as 3/1 here. The price is value.
Southampton 0 Card Handicap (‘Alternative Card Handicap’ market) is a standout 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365.
Also available – Most Cards is 29/10 (3.90) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Most Booking Points is 2/1 (3.00) with William Hill. |
There are stacks of highly-rated stats, bets and trends in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at an appealing price...
- Over 3.5 Cards bets, for example, have paid out in each of Chelsea’s last 7 games. But the bookies have chopped any value out of that this weekend with Bet365 setting their line higher at 4.5 Cards
With all the stats and prices in mind, these two catch the eye this week – including a different market in that Chelsea game...
Back Bournemouth’s 100% record to continue...
Chelsea v Bournemouth (TV) – Corner Handicap:
- Chelsea have won the Most Corners in just 1 of 7 Home games this season (14%), and in just 4 of 14 league games overall (29%)
- Bournemouth have won the Most Corners in 71% of games, including 5 out of 7 Away games
- Bournemouth +2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 14 out of 14 games (100%)
Bournemouth are 2/1+ (3.00+) to win the Most Corners, but the best value for us here is Bournemouth +2 Corner Handicap...
Chelsea are short odds-on for the Home Win, but the stats say that perceived match dominance shouldn’t put us off backing the Away side in the Corners markets:
Bournemouth have won the Most Corners in 8 out of 9 games, despite winning just one of those fixtures. And have been to the likes of Man City and Liverpool and won the Most Corners in defeat.
Bournemouth +2 Corner Handicap has paid out in all 14 of their games. While backing Chelsea’s opponents +2 has paid out 6 times out of 7 at Stamford Bridge. Those are standout stats that should be followed...
Bournemouth +2 Corner Handicap is a best price Evens (2.00) with William Hill, 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, 17/20 (1.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet. |
Tottenham the Most Corners pick...
West Brom v Tottenham – Most Corners:
- Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 5 out of 6 Away games (83%), and in 79% of games overall
- West Brom have won Most Corners in just 5 of 13 games for the season (36%), including 3 from 7 Home games
- Bets on opponents to win Most Corners have paid out in 8 of West Brom’s last 10 Premier League games
Tottenham are a solid pick here. As I mentioned in this week’s Spotlight email, they are our top-rated team for Most Corners bets this season. Spurs have landed that bet in 5 out of 5 games v Bottom Half sides so far. And West Brom, who are 13th in the league and have the lowest Possession figures in the division, look a good match-up...
Corners Match Bet – Tottenham is a best price 8/11 (1.73) with Paddy Power, 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365. Tottenham Most Corners is 8/11 with William Hill, 4/6 with 888 Sport, Unibet. |
Prem10 Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
Value Picks – in search of a big price winner, using the stats as a guide:
- Swansea v Leicester – First Scorer – Jamie Vardy @ 9/2 (5.50) with William Hill
- Southampton v Aston Villa – Southampton 0 Card Handicap @ 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365
Stats Picks – best value prices for the top-rated bets, flagged up by the stats:
- Chelsea v Bournemouth – Bournemouth +2 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with William Hill
- West Brom v Tottenham – Corners Match Bet – Tottenham @ 8/11 (1.73) with Paddy Power
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the football. I’ll be back on Monday with your latest Stats Review email...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
