Spotlight - When to bet on a Winning Streak...

Wednesday 6th April 2016

In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:

• Winning streaks….
• In search of value this weekend...
• Go against the crowd in the Grand National…

You gotta know when to hold ‘em, and know when to fold ‘em…

Winning streaks are slippery creatures…

On Monday I was lamenting not putting Leicester’s 1-0 Correct Score trend into action with a weekend bet. Four payouts on that bet from their last 5 games makes tantalising reading. But we must remember that – as discussed on in our weekend Review email (4th April) – the price we take is the key. It’s not all about the numbers.

• For example, Novak Djokovic has won something like 28 out of 29 tennis matches this year. But seeing as he’ll probably be very, very short odds-on at 1/10 (1.10) to win his next match – I won’t be betting…

Give me a price or a market that looks wrong, though… or overly generous, bigger than the stats & form suggest – and I’ll be dead keen to get a bet on.

So it goes with Premier League winning streaks. The stats on our site and in your weekly Prem10 emails do a large chunk of the homework for us – pointing out potential opportunities and noteworthy form lines.

But the numbers alone aren’t enough. That’s why you need to keep an eye out for your Friday, pre-match emails. Where I add the markets & prices to the stats and form. Opportunities that tick the right boxes then make the cut for our weekend value picks.

Part one of the process today then… Let’s take a look at some of the current Winning Streaks in the Premier League. With the end-of-season run-in upon us, this form info can really help us latch on to which teams are going in which direction, with relegation to avoid and the title & European places to play for…

Current Winning Streaks:

Match Results:

• Leicester have won 4 games in a row (all 1-0)
  Sunderland have drawn 4 games in a row
• Aston Villa have lost 7 games in a row
• Crystal Palace have gone 14 games without a win
• Chelsea are on a 15-game unbeaten run

Goals:

• Man Utd’s last 4 games have all been Under 2.5 Goals (all of them 1-0 wins or defeats)
• Swansea’s last 5 Home games have been Under 2.5 Goals
• Bournemouth’s last 4 games have all been Over 2.5 Goals
• Chelsea haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 9 Home games

Corners:

• Liverpool have won the Most Corners in their last 6 Home games
• Opponents have won the Most Corners in Watford’s last 8 Away games 

Cards & Booking Points:

• Watford’s last 4 Away games have been Under 3.5 Cards
• Norwich have received the Most Cards in their last 4 Away games 

Those are some of the teams & trends on my radar right now. The next step – let’s see what prices offer us in the markets for this week’s fixtures. And of course, who-plays-who in the fixture list will play a big part, too. Look out for that analysis and your value picks on Friday…

P.S

Go against the crowd in the Grand National…

I can’t let today’s email pass without mentioning this week’s big betting event at Aintree…

And when it comes to the Grand National your first port of call should be my colleague Nick Pullen – a man who has picked the Grand National winner in two of the last three years… at odds of 33/1 and 100/1!

You can get all Nick’s advice at Aintree this week with a Free Trial. Nick’s service is called AGAINST THE CROWD because he NEVER backs favourites. And what’s more, Nick can prove that backing favourites will actually lose you money…

See the proof and get Nick’s Grand National picks here >>

I’ll be back on Friday. Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10