Spotlight - The Manchester derby - facts & fiction...
Wednesday 16th March 2016
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- The Manchester derby – facts & fiction...
- Michael + Manchester = 22-man brawl?
- In search of value this weekend...
Last week we looked at six players who need to tread carefully before the FA’s 10 Yellow Card ban kicks in (Spotlight – 9th March)...
This week I’ve got my nose in the Cards & Booking Points stats once again – with Sunday’s Manchester derby in mind...
In the Spotlight...
The Manchester derby – facts & fiction...
With any derby match or rivalry there’s often the assumption that a tackle-tastic tear-up will be in store. But let’s see that the stats say...
Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday 4.00pm, Sky Sports
For a game like this we can expect bookies to ‘go high’ on their Total Cards and Total Booking Points markets.
The likes of Bet365 regularly go Under or Over 5.5 Cards for a derby match such as the Manchester or Merseyside derby. Whereas for a standard Premier League game the market usually sits at Under or Over 3.5 Cards.
With that in mind, the figures for the last 10 Premier League meetings between Man City and Man Utd are surprising:
- 6 of the last 10 Manchester derbies have been UNDER 5.5 Cards (or 55.5 Booking Points)
And in the most recent encounters, the numbers fall even lower:
- 4 of the last 5 Manchester derbies have been UNDER 4.5 Cards (or 45.5 Booking Pts)
Compare those figures to the Madrid derby in Spain for example, where 8 of the last 10 league meetings have been OVER 5.5 Cards, and the Manchester derby looks like a Friendly.
On top of this, the Head-to-Head stats on our site for Man City v Man Utd show that for the season to date, both Manchester teams have been pretty well behaved:
- Under 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 12 of City’s 15 Home games (80%)
- Under 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 13 of United’s 15 Away games (87%)
There is one fly in the ointment, though...
Michael + Manchester = 22-man brawl?
In the Autumn we added our new Referees page to your Prem10 website (you’ll find the leader-board on the League Stats tab).
From Refs that have taken charge of 10+ games in the Premier League this season, our numbers show that Michael Oliver has the highest Cards per Game average, at 4.2 Cards.
It just so happens that Michael Oliver has been appointed Referee for the big game on Sunday afternoon. And his cards & notebook have seen plenty of use lately...
In his last 2 games, Michael Oliver has shown 3 Red Cards. Including 2 Reds in the FA Cup game between Everton and Chelsea last weekend. And before that, a total of 5 Yellow Cards and 1 Red Card in the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal in the Premier League.
Now, this doesn’t mean that Sunday’s game will necessarily see his Red Card being flashed around again. But the Referee stats do add useful food for thought to the Manchester derby – a fixture that is otherwise fairly calm-looking based on recent encounters...
In search of value this weekend...
I’ll be watching the Bet365 site and other bookies with eagle eyes on Friday morning when the Cards markets go up. Your Friday lunchtime Prem10 email will contain my bet advice for the big game at Man City if the markets look to be in our favour.
And of course, we’ll be looking to hunt out the betting value – with the stats as our guide – from across the entire Premier League fixture list...
I’ll be back by 2.00pm on Friday. Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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