Spotlight - Hammers rise to the big occasion...
Wednesday 20th January 2016
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- Hammers rise to the big occasion...
- Fast starts at Upton Park...
- Coming up on Friday...
In today’s Spotlight feature we’re shining the big yellow light on West Ham...
Our stats show the Hammers are a team worthy of attention for two traits in particular this season – beating the big boys, and fast goals...
With this weekend’s visit from Premier League champions Man City in mind, let’s take a looks at those West Ham figures.
In the Spotlight:
Hammers rise to the big occasion...
Under manager Slaven Bilic, West Ham are riding high in 6th place in the Premier League table. And their season has been punctuated by a series of against-the-odds wins:
- West Ham have beaten the likes of Liverpool (Home & Away), Chelsea (H), Man City (A), Arsenal (A) and Southampton (H) – all teams that finished above them last season
- In contrast, 3 of West Ham’s 4 defeats have come in games where they were the favourite in the pre-match betting – losing at Home to Bournemouth and Leicester at the start of the season, and Away at Watford
West Ham’s 2015/16 match record suggests we should pay attention to them when they are priced up as the underdogs.
This weekend’s fixture would fit the bill on paper with 3rd place Man City coming to Upton Park. City have won just 1 of their last 7 Premier League Away games...
Fast starts at Upton Park...
Another standout stat in the West Ham formbook is their prolific record in the Time of First Goal market.
The Hammers are the top-rated team in the new League Stats (Goals) table on our website for Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets:
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before = 8 out of 10 Home games (80%)
- Average First Goal Time in West Ham Home games = 16 mins
In 5 of those 6 West Ham wins listed above (v Liverpool x 2, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal & Southampton) – the first goal of the game came within the first 20 mins.
And in 5 of those 6 ‘underdog’ wins, it was West Ham who opened the scoring (and in the one game where the Hammers didn’t score first, the goal was an Own Goal from one of their players).
The Goal Time stats tell us that West Ham are fast starters at Home, and that pattern is as strong as ever when they face a higher-rated match opponent.
Using the stats to find the value...
If betting following the stats was a simple matter of A + B = Winner, then this weekend’s game would see West Ham scoring an early goal in a win over Man City...
Of course, it doesn’t always pan out that way. This is a football match – not a mathematical problem waiting to be solved.
But... an awareness of the formbook and figures certainly gives us a head-start when it comes to weighing up the markets, prices and betting options at our disposal come match-day.
Knowledge of West Ham’s record against ‘big clubs’, and their ‘early goal’ trend, will help us spot the value...
For example, West Ham are currently 9/2 (5.50) underdogs to win the game, and 9/5 (2.80) outsiders to score first. With the above stats in mind those prices start to look a little lob-sided. And those are exactly the kind of opportunities we look to profit from with our Stats Picks & Value Picks every weekend...
Coming up on Friday...
I’ll be back with my analysis of this week’s standout stats & prices in your Weekend Picks email on Friday afternoon.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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