Midweek Picks - Cards value in the Merseyside derby...

Wednesday 20th April 2016

In your Prem10 – Midweek Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Cards value in the Merseyside derby...

Tonight’s Premier League games need to be looked at with this weekend’s FA Cup Semi Finals in mind...

Four of the six clubs in action tonight will be turning out at Wembley in just a few days’ time. And the respective managers of Man Utd, Crystal Palace, Watford and Everton have all made comments about resting players or fielding different line-ups this evening.

Everton’s impending FA Cup game plays a part in our thinking for today’s Pick in the Merseyside derby – where there’s a standout bet in the Cards & Bookings markets...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this week. My research leads me to tonight’s game at Anfield which is live on Sky Sports at 8.00pm...

Card Handicap value in the Merseyside derby...

Liverpool v Everton – Card Handicap

• Everton have received 1 Yellow Card or Less in 12 of their last 13 games
• Bets on opponents +1 Card Handicap have paid out in 10 of those 13 games

Liverpool are the value in the Most Cards and Card Handicap markets this evening...

Everton have received the Most Cards at Anfield in 7 of the last 10 seasons, but with their FA Cup Semi Final v Man Utd coming up on Saturday, there’s a case for this Merseyside derby being less of a blood ‘n’ thunder affair than usual.

This Premier League fixture has historically seen more Red Cards than any other – but there have been none in the last 8 meetings. It might not be as ‘tasty’ as some would expect.

Looking at the recent form, Everton have been one of the very best behaved sides in the league. In fact, for the season overall Liverpool have got more Yellow Cards (52) than Everton (39), and received the Most Cards in more games (50%) than the Toffees (30%).

Even taking into account the Home team/ Away team factor, the 2015/16 stats say Liverpool look a little underrated in the Most Cards betting today – with the markets going 5/2 (3.50) Liverpool, 7/2 (4.50) the Tie and 4/6 (1.67) Everton.

With midfielders Emre Can and Jordan Henderson out injured, Liverpool could line up with two of the Premier League’s most-booked players this evening in Lucas (8 Yellows) and James Milner (7 Yellows). In comparison, no Everton player has got more than 6 bookings to his name this season.

The Card Handicap option appeals most here, with Liverpool +1 Card Handicap paying out on Liverpool Most Cards and also covering the Cards Tie. That bet has paid out in 7 of Liverpool’s last 10 games, while backing opponents +1 has paid out in 10 of Everton’s last 13.

• Where to find this bet… Card Handicap bets can be found in the Cards markets sections for Liverpool v Everton on the Bet365 and 888 Sport websites
  

Enjoy the midweek games. I’ll be back on Friday with our Weekend Picks...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10