FA Cup Final Preview - 40/1 eye-catcher for Palace v Man Utd...   

Friday 20th May 2016

In your Prem10 – FA Cup special email today:

• FA Cup final preview – Crystal Palace v Man Utd...
• Standout stats...
• In search of value at Wembley...
• Enhanced Odds specials this weekend...

I heard some moaning on BBC Five Live this week. The reporter was complaining about Cup final day not being the ‘big occasion’ that it used to be.

Well, I don’t have bunting, all-day TV coverage and an awful novelty song for you. I can’t bring the streets and shopping centres to a standstill on Saturday afternoon. But I do have an in-depth FA Cup Final 2016 Preview for you today...

And it includes some strong statistical trends, some eye-catching facts – and a few whopping prices...

The magic of the Cup is alive and well here at Prem10 HQ...

FA Cup Final Preview – Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Saturday, 5.30pm – Wembley Stadium
Live on BBC One and BT Sport

For starters, I’ve been studying the Cup Final formbook. Here are my findings...

Cup Final trends – last 20 years

Stats & betting markets apply to Normal Time only

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 13 of the last 20 finals (65%)

• The 1-0 Correct Score has paid out 7 times (35%)

• Both Teams to Score - NO bets have paid out in 15 of the last 20 finals (75%)

• Bets on the match winner To Win To Nil have paid out 13 times (65%)

And in the last decade...

• Arsenal’s 4-0 victory over Aston Villa last season was the only time in the last 10 years that an FA Cup final has been settled by more than a 1-goal Winning Margin

The FA Cup history books tell us to expect a narrow score-line. With goals hard to come by, especially in terms of both teams getting on the score-sheet.

And the recent Premier League record between Crystal Palace and Man Utd paints a similar picture...

Crystal Palace v Man Utd – recent meetings

Five of their last 6 league meetings have gone Under 2.5 Goals, including a 0-0 draw at Palace and a 2-0 Home win for Man Utd this season.

Bets on Both Teams to Score – NO have also paid out in 5 of those 6 meetings since Palace came back up to the top flight, with Man Utd winning To Nil on 4 out of 6 occasions.

The historical Win-Lose-Draw form doesn’t look good for Palace, with the Londoners without a win in 20 meetings v Man Utd in all comps going back 25 years to May 1991.

Looking deeper into the season just ended, the 2015/16 Team Stats on our Prem10 website also say Palace have got their work cut out here:

• Palace (finished 15th in the Premier League) lost 7 out of 10 games v Top 5 sides (Man Utd finished 5th). And won just 5 out of 10 games v Top Half sides
  
• Man Utd’s record v Bottom Half teams was W12 D3 L5

In synch with the trends from the last 20 FA Cup finals, it’s also worth noting that 8 of Palace’s 11 league wins this season were by a 1-goal Winning Margin (73%) and that 13 of Man Utd’s 19 wins were To Nil (68%).

In search of value at Wembley...

After seeing the price of fish n chips in the concrete corridors of Wembley, ticket holders will probably tell you there is no ‘value’ to be had there...

But from here at my desk with the stats, markets & match-day odds in front of me – a couple of prices do catch the eye as betting value.

First things first, with the trends above in mind, the bookies look to be pretty much on top of things:

• Man Utd are odds-on favourites @ 3/4 (1.75) to win in Normal Time, and 4/11 (1.36) To Lift the Trophy

• The NO option is the favourite in the Both Teams to Score market, at 8/13 (1.62) in general

• Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on in the Total Goals Under/ Over betting, at 4/7 (1.57)

Looking to the odds-against prices, Man Utd – To Win to Nil is 6/4 (2.50), which is bigger than the numbers above suggest it should be, but still hardly an exciting price for us to take into a Cup final situation.

Elsewhere, the Man Utd 1-0 Correct Score at 4/1 (5.00) is a short as I have seen a 1-0 score-line all season.

Palace are 12/1 (13.00) to win by the 1-0 score-line though, and Cup romantics should take note that the last three FA Cup finals that can be deemed as ‘shocks’ were all won by that score: Wigan 1 Man City 0, Everton 1 Man Utd 0, Wimbledon 1 Liverpool 0...

Cup history says that if there’s going to be an underdog win, the 1-0 Correct Score is the result you should be looking for.

Big-price defenders & midfielders catch the eye...

For me, a few prices catch the eye in the Scorer markets tomorrow.

With the formbook pointing to a tight game in front of goal, it could pay to look beyond the short-price strikers. United’s Wayne Rooney, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial dominate the betting, each as short as 11/8 (2.38) to Score Anytime.

Recent FA Cup finals have seen midfielders and defenders weighing in with big goals, and at attractive prices that’s a tactic well worth employing this weekend...

Arsenal defender Per Mertesacker got on the score-sheet in last year’s final. While 3 of the 4 goals scored in Normal Time the year before (Arsenal 2 Hull 2) came from defenders.

The 2013 Cup final was settled by a header from Wigan midfielder Ben Watson, while the year before that Chelsea midfielder Ramires opening the scoring. And the year before that, Man City midfielder Yaya Toure got the only goal of the game...

With those unlikely Cup final scorers in mind, these players are worthy of consideration for Saturday’s match:

• Palace centre back Scott Dann was the club’s joint top scorer in the league this season with 5 goals. Dann is as short as 6/1 with Betfair Sportsbook to Score Anytime but is a standout 18/1 with Bet365, who also go an industry-best 40/1 for Dann First Scorer...
  
• Penalty-taking midfielder Yohan Cabaye also got 5 goals for Palace this season. Cabaye is an injury doubt for the Final, but again the best prices are currently at Bet365 – 7/1 Anytime Scorer & 18/1 First Scorer, compared to 4/1 & 11/1 elsewhere

A similar ‘long-shot’ case can be made for Man Utd players...

• Defender Daley Blind popped up with an FA Cup goal against Derby County in January and also found the net against Liverpool in the league. Blind to Score Anytime is 18/1 with 888 Sport compared to 12/1 in general, and a best price 37/1 First Scorer. Defensive partner Chris Smalling scored the same amount of goals as Blind this season, but Smalling’s odds aren’t quite in the same ballpark at 11/1 and 28/1 respectively

• Midfielder Juan Mata was United’s top league scorer behind Rooney and Martial this season, and will also be on the scene for penalty and free kick taking duties. Mata Anytime Scorer is 3/1 in general but a standout 9/2 (5.50) at Bet365... in the First Scorer betting he’s 7/1 with most firms and an industry-best 12/1 with Bet365

Cup final betting is tricky at the best of times, but if you’re looking for a couple of big prices to spice up tomorrow’s game then covering one of those players in the Scorer markets looks the way to go.

Bet365 and 888 Sport are sticking their necks out with some of their Scorer prices there – those two are the places to go for the best odds.

P.S

Enhanced Odds for the Cup final...

Talking of getting the best price, Ladbrokes are offering a couple of Enhanced Odds specials this weekend...

You can get 3/1 (4.00) for Man Utd to lift the trophy or 4/1 for Palace to score in 90 minutes. Those prices are more like 4/11 (1.36) and 8/11 (1.73) at the standard prices...

Take advantage of those Enhanced Odds at Ladbrokes >>

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back next week with a look at the stats & prices for the Champions League final – and the latest on how you can cash-in on Euro 2016.

Plenty to look forward to...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10