Man City are at it again. So is 6/1 David Silva...
Monday 24th August 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Man City are at it again…
- What the stats say after Week Three…
- Monday Night Football – Arsenal v Liverpool…
- Coming up this week…
We didn’t get the high-scoring game that the stats anticipated for the Leicester v Tottenham game, but our research did highlight a couple of reliable trends over the weekend…
Man City are at it again…
Man City to win the Most Cards or Booking Points was one of the most profitable bets in the Premier League last season, paying out in 74% of their Away games and at odds-against prices, too – usually around the 11/8 (2.38) mark. We got a decent 5/4 (2.25) price for that prolific bet at the weekend, with City landing the first ‘Most Cards’ winner of the season for us (see below).
Silva all gold…
I talked myself out of backing Man City’s David Silva to be Man of the Match in the Sky Sports Super Sunday game at Everton – his stats have been exceptional so far (90% Pass Completion rate) but the second-favourite price tag of 6/1 seemed a little short to me with just two games’ of form in the book. As it turned out, Sky commentator Gary Neville couldn’t stop waxing lyrical about Silva and that 6/1 Man of the Match bet would’ve romped in. We’ll have plenty of other opportunities to target markets like that in our Value Picks throughout the season.
As it went, my Value Pick was on the aforementioned Leicester-Tottenham game, where the 1-1 draw was never going to be enough to land the 7/1 ‘Highest Scoring Game’ of the weekend accolade (nor, therefore, our Over 2.5 Goals Stats Pick). Considering the stats ahead of the weekend though, that 7/1 price was value.
Value Pick:
- Weekend Specials – Highest Scoring Game – Leicester v Tottenham @ 7/1 – LOST
What the stats say after Week Three…
Here at Prem10 we cover a wide range of stats categories and markets – and last week we were once again justified in avoiding the short prices in the Match Result market. West Ham were the Home Win favourite v Bournemouth but lost 3-4. And as discussed in our Friday email, Man Utd didn’t appeal at odds of just 2/5 (1.40) to beat Newcastle – that one ended up in a 0-0 draw.
Here’s how the stats panned out from the key games and trends highlighted in Friday’s weekend preview email…
Sunderland 1 Swansea 1 – Total Cards:
The stats pointed to Over 3.5 Cards here with that bet paying out in 74% of Sunderland Home games last season, and in both of Swansea’s games so far in 2015/16. However the bookies priced us out of this one with Bet365 only offering a higher Over 4.5 Cards line. As it happened that higher bet would have paid out on Saturday afternoon, with a total of 6 Yellow Cards (60 Booking Points) in the match. Both those teams stay on our radar for Cards & Bookings bets.
Leicester 1 Tottenham 1 – Total Goals:
This fixture saw a total of 10 goals in the two meetings last season, with Tottenham the highest rated team in the Premier League for Over 2.5 Goals bets (79% Away record). The goals didn’t come until the last 10 minutes here, with Leicester equalising a minute after Spurs had taken the lead.
Stats Pick:
- Leicester v Tottenham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 – LOST
Everton 0 Man City 2 – Team with Most Bookings:
Man City franked their 2014/15 stats here, winning the Most Cards/ Booking Points for the 15th time in 21 Premier League Away games since the start of last season (71%). Everton on the other hand remain a ‘clean’ side – with last season taken into account that’s now just 2 of their last 21 Home games where Everton would’ve landed the Most Cards/ Bookings bet. Sunday’s result: Everton 0 Cards (0 pts) Man City 3 Cards (30 pts).
Stats Pick:
- Everton v Man City – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 5/4 – WON
We’re only three weeks into the new season so we’re treading tentatively with our match bets so far. Having said that it’s encouraging that some of the early season form is matching up to our data from last season, such as those Man City and Sunderland ‘Cards & Bookings’ stats above.
So far we’ve had 5 recommended bets (Prem10 Picks) with 3 winners. To level stakes those bets are showing 1 pt profit for a 20% Return on Investment. From the Stats Picks alone we’re on 2 pts profit for a 50% ROI, with 3 out of 4 winners.
Early days yet. Our site is updated with all the latest match stats every week and as the season progresses, the form book and betting trends will grow. Every week I’ll be on the lookout for the very best opportunities and prices for us.
Coming up this week…
The week three fixture list concludes with Arsenal v Liverpool tonight – 8.00pm on Sky Sports. I’ll be back on Friday with your weekend preview email, including the standout stats for the weekend games and the pick of the bets on offer.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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