Monday's Picks - Cards expected at West Brom...
Sunday 27th December 2015
In your Prem10 – Picks email today:
- Boxing Day joy…
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- Another Draw in store for the Hammers…
- Cards expected at The Hawthorns…
- Spurs can win Most Corners again…
It was a joyous Boxing Day for our Picks – with all three selections paying out…
Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score paid out at 15/8 (2.88) – City’s 4-1 win over Sunderland was the 13th consecutive time that the ‘Win & BTTS’ option has paid out on a City win. And we got the value: the straight up City Home Win was just 2/9 (1.22).
Elsewhere we successfully sniffed out the Anytime Scorer value with 3/1 (4.00) shot Odion Ighalo scoring in Watford’s 2-2 draw at Chelsea, and Man Utd winning the Most Corners 12-1 at Stoke for a 4/5 (1.80) payout.
Ighalo has now scored in 5 games in a row, while Man Utd have won the Corners Match Bet in 7 successive Premier League games.
Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...
I’m continuing our Holiday Season coverage today with my Picks for the games taking place between Monday and Wednesday. Starting with a rare Match Result bet on the Draw…
Another Draw in store for the Hammers…
West Ham v Southampton – Match Result
- West Ham have drawn 5 of their last 6 Premier League games
- 4 of the 8 meetings between these sides over the last four seasons have been Draws
The formbook makes this game a standout ‘Draw’ pick…
West Ham have become the Premier League’s Draw specialists in recent weeks, and at Upton Park the Home supporters have seen 4 draws from the last 5 games. Southampton were winless in 5 games before beating Arsenal at St Mary’s on Boxing Day, and have drawn 2 of their 4 Away games v current Top Half sides.
The stats say a Draw in this fixture is more likely than odds of 12/5 (3.40) suggest. Best price 12/5 with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet. |
There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...
- For example, Chelsea are our 2nd top-rated team for Over 3.5 Cards bets – but that option is not available this week with the bookies bumping the line up to 5.5 Cards for their game at Man Utd. Better value bets, including a more appealing Total Cards line, are available elsewhere…
Two prices standout in the Cards and Corners markets this week...
Cards expected at The Hawthorns…
West Brom v Newcastle – Over 3.5 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of West Brom’s last 5 Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Newcastle’s last 5 Away games
Both teams’ Disciplinary records make Over 3.5 Cards a standout stats pick here…
These two are top of the Worst Behaviour chart this season – West Brom with 39 Yellows and 3 Reds, followed by Newcastle with 36 Yellows and 3 Reds.
We’d usually expect to see the bookies shift the line up to 4.5 Cards for a match-up like this, but we can get the preferred Over 3.5 Cards option at 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365 or 19/25 (1.76) with 888 Sport and Unibet. |
Spurs can win Most Corners again…
Watford v Tottenham – Most Corners
- Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 7 of their 8 Away games (88%)
- Watford have won Most Corners in just 2 of their last 10 games
The Away team are a justified favourite for the Most Corners here…
Watford have been out-cornered at Home by the likes of Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal so far – and Spurs are the top-rated Most Corners side in the Premier League.
Corners Match Bet – Tottenham is a best price 8/11 (1.73) with Paddy Power, 7/10 (1.70) with BetVictor. Also available, Team With Most Corners – Tottenham at 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill. |
Prem10 Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
Value Picks – in search of a big price winner, using the stats as a guide:
- West Ham v Southampton – Draw @ 12/5 (3.40) with Bet365
Stats Picks – best value prices for the top-rated bets, flagged up by the stats:
- West Brom v Newcastle – Over 3.5 Cards @ 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365
- Watford v Tottenham – Corners Match Bet – Tottenham @ 8/11 (1.73) with Paddy Power
Latest Premier League odds here |
I’ll be back on Thursday 31st December with your stats analysis & betting Picks for the next round of games, which take place on 2nd – 3rd January. Until then, enjoy the festive football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
