Midweek Picks - including Man City v Barcelona tonight... 

Tuesday 1st November 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks – tonight’s standout stats and prices...
• Cards expected in the big one...
• Strong ‘Both Teams to Score’ match-up tonight... 

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Midweek Picks email...

The stats lead me to the Champions League and League One today...

• I’ve been on the hunt for the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website

• See below for today’s Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer….

Last time out in Europe we had a winner on Atletico Madrid ‘To Win To Nil’ at Rostov (won 1-0).

Those two play in the reverse fixture in Spain tonight, but with Atletico at home the Win To Nil price is approaching short odds-on, at around 1/2 (1.50). We got closer to Even Money (2.00) when they played in Russia.

Thirteen of Atletico’s last 14 Champions League victories have been To Nil, but that price doesn’t appeal to me this evening.

I also highlighted Atletico’s in-form midfielder Yannick Carrasco that night – he scored at odds of 5/2 (3.50), and 7/1 (8.00) in the First Scorer market...

Carrasco scored 2 in the league on Saturday, and the bookies are less generous with his prices now – around Evens (2.00) to score tonight, and 5/1 (6.00) First Scorer.

I’m looking elsewhere for my selections tonight – namely the big game at the Etihad Stadium...

Cards expected in the big one...

Man City v Barcelona

Champions League, 7.45pm – BT Sport 2

• Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 5 previous meetings between Man City and Barcelona

After drawing at Celtic and losing in Barcelona, Man City boss Pep Guardiola has described tonight’s game as a ‘final’ for his side...

These clubs have met several times in the Champions League in recent seasons, and one common theme has been a high number of Yellow and Red Cards:

In the 5 meetings between Man City and Barcelona since the start of the 2013/14 season, the Total Cards (and Booking Points) scores have been:

Most recent first: 8 Cards (90 pts), 6 Cards (60 pts), 7 Cards (75 pts), 7 Cards (75 pts), 6 Cards (65 pts).

Significantly, 4 of those 5 meetings have featured Red Cards.

• ‘Cards’ betting explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet): Yellow Card = 1 Card, Red Card = 2 Cards. The most one player can receive in a game = 3 Cards (2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

• ‘Booking Points’ betting explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Stan James): Yellow Card = 10 pts, Red Card = 25 pts. The most one player can receive in a game = 35 pts (2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

With plenty to play for in terms of qualification from Group C, those head-to-head ‘Disciplinary’ stats look worth following this evening....

In each of those previous meetings, there have been enough Cards to land Over 5.5 Cards bets – and enough Booking Points to land Over 55 Booking Points bets.

Also, tonight’s Referee, Viktor Kassai is not one to shy away from flashing the cards. He sent off two players in the Champions League game between PSG and Arsenal this season (Total Cards score = 8, Booking Pts = 90 pts).

On the historical Champions League betting stats on our site, Barcelona are one of the top-rated teams in the standard Over 3.5 Cards market (82%).

With all that in mind, and with the added spice of this fixture, which included two Red Cards when City and Barca met a fortnight ago, some of the bookies’ Total Cards/ Booking Points lines are a little lower than we might have expected today – and look to offer a bit of value...

The bookies don’t do us any favours in terms of finding the best Cards/ Booking Points options – all choosing to call the markets something different. I’ve shopped around though, and the best price for the best ‘Total’ market is with Skybet...

• The next best option is ‘Over 4.5 Cards’ at 87/100 (1.87) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 32RedSport, 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365 – and 4/5 (1.80) with Stan James (who confusingly call this ‘Over 4.5 Bookings,’ which is separate to their Booking Points markets)

If you prefer to bet at bigger prices, you might want to follow those Red Card stats into the more speculative ‘Will there be a Sending Off?’ markets...

Again, the bookies tend to word their markets in different ways, but the best prices on a Sending Off are with William Hill, Marathonbet, Paddy Power and Boylesports – who all go 3/1 (4.00) or bigger.

The stats also point to a standout opportunity in League One this evening...

Strong ‘Both Teams to Score’ match-up tonight...

Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood Town

League One, 7.45pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in all 7 of Bristol Rovers’ home league games (100%)

This game is one of the strongest Both Teams to Score match-ups going right now...

Bristol Rovers are the dominant side, with that bet paying out in 13 of their 15 games (87%) – and 7 out of 7 at home. Those high strike-rates put Rovers 2nd on our League One ‘Both Teams to Score’ table.

On the team news, it’s worth pointing out that Rovers’ goalkeeper Kelle Roos looks set to play again tonight. After making some mistakes recently, conceding 3 goals at MK Dons and 2 v Peterborough, there was talk of him being dropped – but Rovers have injury concerns over both of their reserve goalies.

Fleetwood have a noteworthy Both Teams to Score record, too (71% away). And that bet has paid out in 7 of their 9 league games overall since the start of September.

These sides are also top of our ‘Scored In’ chart, with Rovers finding the net in 14 out of 15 League One games this season – and Fleetwood boasting a 100% record, having scored in all 15 games.

Odds of 4/6 (1.67) are about as low as I go when recommending a bet, but the stats really do flag this game up as a standout opportunity...

And finally – if you like to bet at bigger prices...

Mahrez the man for Leicester...

On Champions League Match-day Three, the Scorer prices for Atletico Madrid’s Yannick Carrasco caught my eye. This week, Riyad Mahrez is one to watch (FC Copenhagen v Leicester City)...

Mahrez is arguably Leicester’s highest quality player, and so far the cream has certainly been rising to the top in the Champions League: Mahrez has got 3 of his team’s 5 goals in the competition.

Jamie Vardy (3 goals for the season overall) and Islam Slimani (4 goals) are both shorter than Mahrez in the Scorer markets for Wednesday night’s game. But the Algerian star is up there with 4 goals of his own, and could prove value at some of the top prices available...

888 Sport is the place to go if you’re backing Mahrez in the Anytime Scorer market, with a best price of 18/5 (4.60). Bet365 have the standout First Scorer odds, with Mahrez at 17/2 (9.50).

Enjoy the midweek football.

I’ll be back on Friday with my Weekend Picks & Analysis...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues