Weekend Picks - targeting the Total Corners markets...

Friday 2nd December 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Corners update...
• Rovers goal rush to continue...
• Wood one to watch at 2/1...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks email...

Every Friday I hunt out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer….

My weekend notebook...

With the FA Cup 2nd Round occupying the lower leagues the Premier League and Championship have taken centre stage in my research this week.

However the top Goals opportunity of the weekend looks to be in one of the two League Two fixtures (see below).

In the top flight, Bournemouth v Liverpool is an interesting one in the Most Corners market...

Bournemouth are our top-rated Premier League team for that bet (100% home record), and also won the Most Corners home & away v Liverpool last season. With that in mind Bournemouth could prove value as the 6/4 (2.50) underdog in that market for Sunday’s game on Sky Sports.

However, the fact that Liverpool are playing such attacking football – and have won the Most Corners themselves in 7 of their last 8 in the league, makes me think this one might be good to watch but hard to call from a betting point of view.

Full League Stats, Team Stats and Head-2-Head home v away comparisons for every division, every team and every game are available for you to view on our site.

• If you’re using our Referee stats to assist with your bet selections this weekend, you’ll find the following list of official Referee Appointments useful. View this weekend’s Premier League Refs here; Football League Refs here

Corners update...

In Wednesday’s email I highlighted six games with strong match-ups on our Total Corners stats...

West Ham v Arsenal – UNDER 10.5 Corners
West Brom v Watford - UNDER 10.5 Corners
Bristol City v Ipswich – UNDER 10.5 Corners
Cardiff v Brighton – UNDER 10.5 Corners
Fulham v Reading – OVER 10.5 Corners
Leeds Utd v Aston Villa – OVER 10.5 Corners

Now that the weekend is upon us we have some markets to look at, too...

Bookies with Total Corners options available for all six games include Bet365, William Hill, 10Bet and NetBet. Premier League games and live TV games will have more options available, too – including the likes of BetVictor, Stan James, Unibet and 888 Sport.

Most of those firms accept doubles, trebles and accumulators on Total Corners bets, so those of you that like to combine the top-rated stats selections in multiples could have something to play with...

• Bet365 are the best place to go for the multiples, with all six options available – and the speculative full house paying around 31/1+ (32.00). Note: Bet365 call Under 10.5 Corners ‘Under 11,’ and Over 10.5 Corners ‘Over 10’

For my Picks I’m interested in the best prices available for singles...

West Ham v Arsenal stands out with a 100% Under 10.5 Corners record for the home team, but most bookies have ruled this one out for me by setting their line lower, at Under 9.5 Corners.

Elsewhere some of the options are limited, with Bristol City v Ipswich Town and Cardiff v Brighton at 8/11 (1.73) each the best you’ll get (Bet365). Those odds are okay considering the strong stats, but I like to squeeze the absolute most out of the prices with my nominated Picks...

Two games make the cut for me for a Total Corners bet this weekend...

Watford can make it 8 on the trot...

West Brom v Watford

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 7 Watford games in a row

This one was in my Wednesday write-up and now that the markets are up, the price looks good, too...

Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of West Brom’s 6 Premier League games at The Hawthorns, and in 4 of their last 5 games overall.

Watford’s away record is 5 out of 6 for the season (83%). And on the League Stats tables on our site Watford are our top-rated Premier League team for Under 10.5 Corners bets, with 11 payouts from 13 games overall (85%).

Watford are on a 7-game winning streak for this bet – but the odds available here don’t reflect that strong record...

Go ‘Over’ the Corners at Elland Road...

Leeds Utd v Aston Villa

Championship, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

• Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 5 of Leeds’ last 6 home games

This one is another strong Corners match-up – this time on the ‘Over’ stats...

Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 5 of the last 6 Leeds home games, and 4 of the last 6 Villa away games.

That Leeds run includes Total Corners results of 16 and 15 corners, with the Villa figures featuring totals of 17, 16 and 14 (twice).

On our Championship stats this is a 78% home record v 67% away record for Over 10.5 Corners bets. Leeds home games are averaging 11.9 Total Corners and Villa away games averaging 13.0.

And overall, Aston Villa are ranked joint-3rd in our Championship standings for Over 10.5 Corners bets this season.

The bookies make ‘Under’ the favourite here, but the stats and recent form say that’s wrong...

Rovers goal rush to continue...

Stevenage v Doncaster Rovers

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 of Doncaster’s last 10 league games

There are only two fixtures in League Two this weekend, but this one looks the best Goals match-up of the entire English weekend fixture list...

These sides are 3rd and 1st respectively on our overall League Two rankings for Over 2.5 Goals bets. And the home v away records are particularly strong, with Stevenage 88% v Doncaster 88%.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of Stevenage’s last 5 games, and the same for Doncaster games – whose form actually stretches back to 9 out of 10.

These teams have pretty much the same set of strike-rates for Both Teams to Score bets, too – but Over 2.5 Goals is available at the slightly bigger price here – around 10/11 (1.91) compared to 7/10 (1.70)...

And finally...

Wood value at 2/1...

If you like your prices a bit bigger, then Chris Wood could be your man this weekend (Leeds Utd v Aston Villa)...

Wood has scored in 5 of his last 7 games v Championship opposition.

The Scorer stats on our site show the Leeds man is the top-rated Anytime Scorer player in the division, with 9 payouts from 18 appearances.

That’s an impressive 50% strike-rate, whereas the standout Anytime Scorer price of 2/1 (3.00) gives Wood just a 33% chance of finding the net this weekend. Best price with 888 Sport.

Wood is also the top-ranked player in the Championship for First Scorer payouts (including 3 in his 6 games) – that option is a standout 51/10 (6.10) with Marathonbet.

And considering Leeds are the higher placed team, slight favourite to win the game – and Villa have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 10 games, those Scorer prices look good value...

Backing Wood Anytime Scorer @ 2/1 to level stakes in every game this season would’ve given 9 pts profit for a 50% Return on Investment. First Scorer @ 51/10 would’ve given 18.6 pts profit for a 103% ROI.

Enjoy the football.

I’ll be back on Monday with my Weekend Stats Review – bringing you up to date with the latest form & figures from across the leagues...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues