Weekend Picks - Blackpool to batter Orient...

Friday 5th May 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Top-Rated Match-Ups…
• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Blackpool to batter Orient...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks & Analysis email...

Every weekend I hunt out the best prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…

It’s the final round of Championship and League Two games this weekend, while the League One Playoffs continue on Sunday – and there are still three rounds of game to go in the Premier League.

• I’ve gone through the Head-2-Head, League Stats and Team Stats on our site on your behalf, to flag up the Top-Rated Match-Ups. These are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you

• The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – so see below for my own value Picks

Two live-on-TV games feature in our Top-Rated Match-Ups today...

West Ham v Tottenham

Premier League, Fri 8pm – Sky Sports

• Tottenham have won 9 Premier League games in a row

Contrasting form here with Tottenham on a 9-game winning streak, while West Ham have won just one of their last 11...

On paper this is one of the match-ups of the weekend, but the pressure is on Tottenham to keep it going at the top end of the table – while West Ham are now pretty much safe (80/1 to be Relegated).

Spurs had to come from a goal down to beat West Ham 3-2 with two very late goals last time they met, and have actually failed to beat the Hammers in half of their last 10 meetings in all comps.

The recent form clearly points to the Away Win, but odds of just 2/5 (1.40) don’t appeal much to me.

Man City v Crystal Palace

Premier League, Sat 12.30pm – Sky Sports

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 13 of their last 14 games

We had a winning Pick on Man City in the Corners markets last weekend, and they are a strong stats match-up again this week...

City have won the Most Corners in 9 of their last 10 at home, and are our top-rated Premier League team for that bet this season with an 88% home record (14 out of 16 games).

In comparison, Palace have won the Most Corners in just 5 of 17 away games (29%).

The Most Corners betting is pretty much a write-off here with City massive odds-on favourites at just 1/9 (1.11).

Last week we got around Evens (2.00) for City with a -3 Corner Handicap. This time the handicap is generally bigger at -4 Corner Handicap, a bet that City have landed in 4 of their last 10 home games.

The lower, -3 Corner Handicap option is available at 4/6 (1.67) with Marathonbet and NetBet, but the value opportunity doesn’t look as good as last weekend to me.

Huddersfield v Cardiff

Championship, Sun 12pm

• Huddersfield -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 14 of their last 15 home games

Huddersfield have been our top-rated Most Corners side at home this season, with a 91% record at the John Smith’s Stadium. Those 20 payouts from 22 games mean they’ve been landing this bet against pretty much all-comers...

Cardiff have won the Most Corners in 9 of 22 on the road (41%), so there are no strong reasons for concern in that department.

That takes us to the price then, and Huddersfield are odds-on favourites for the Most Corners at 4/9 (1.44), in a market currently only available with William Hill. The same bookie also offers the -1 Corner Handicap, which has paid out in 18 of Huddersfield’s 22 home games (82%). Odds of 3/4 (1.75) make that the more appealing option of the two, but with the Playoffs still to come we might get a better chance to follow Huddersfield’s Corners stats in the next couple of weeks.

The League Two table holds the most excitement on the final day. There are seven teams capable of grabbing the two remaining Playoff places (from Carlisle in 6th right down to Mansfield in 12th – view the table here).

One of the games in the Playoff battle catches my eye...

Blackpool to batter Orient...

Blackpool v Leyton Orient

League Two, Sat 5.30pm

• Leyton Orient have lost 8 of their last 10 games

There are lots of permutations for the League Two Playoffs spots, but the simple situation in this game is that if Blackpool win then they will guarantee their place...

Blackpool have won 4 of their last 6 at home and they couldn’t ask for a better final day fixture than this: Leyton Orient are already relegated, bottom of the league – and have won just one of their last 10 games, losing 4 of their last 5 away.

Orient have also conceded 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games, with Over 2.5 Goals bets paying out in 9 of the 10. The Over 2.5 Goals option is odds-on at 1/2 (1.50) here – and the Home Win is even shorter, with Blackpool at just 1/5 (1.20).

That theme continues with Blackpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals in also odds-on, at 8/13 (1.62). And Blackpool -1 Match Handicap (to win by 2+ goals) at 4/7 (1.57).

However, the -2 Match Handicap market looks more appealing...

Blackpool -2 Match Handicap (to win by 3+ goals) is available at 6/4 (2.50), and the stats make a decent case for a big score-line:

Leyton Orient have been beaten by 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 games – and in 7 of their last 10 defeats. In that time Orient’s losing score-lines have been: 3-0, 3-0, 3-0, 4-1, 4-1, 4-0 and 5-0.

This is a big game for Blackpool and they’re taking on an opponent vulnerable to conceding several goals...

• If you’re looking for a bigger price to spice up the final day of the League Two season, then the Correct Score market for this game could be worth a look... the 3-0 Correct Score has paid out in 4 of Orient’s last 8 defeats, including each of their last 3 away losses. A 3-0 win for Blackpool is a best price 7/1 (8.00) with Paddy Power
   

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review – taking in the latest results and trends. Followed by Picks & Analysis for the Champions League semi finals on Tuesday...

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues