Champions League Picks - Monaco for the Most Cards...
Tuesday 9th May 2017
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Top-Rated Match-Ups…
- Midweek Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid...
- Juventus v Monaco...
Welcome to your Across the Leagues Midweek Picks & Analysis email...
Before every round of games, I hunt out the best prices for the standout trends identified on our website.
Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…
The Champions League semi finals will be settled this week with the 2nd Legs taking place over two evenings...
Juventus and Real Madrid have commanding aggregate leads after victories last week (1st Leg scores in brackets), with both teams mega-short odds-on To Qualify at 1/50 (1.02) each:
Tonight
Juventus (2) v Monaco (0)
Wednesday:
Atletico Madrid (0) v Real Madrid (3)
As ever – and particularly with those aggregate score situations in mind – we’re more interested in the alternative ‘stats’ based markets than the Match Result betting...
I’ve gone through all the stats, to flag up the Top-Rated Match-Ups – these are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you.
- The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – so see below for my own value Picks
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid
Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 100% of Real Madrid’s Champions League games
Real Madrid dominated the 1st Leg, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring all the goals in a 3-0 win. That score-line made in 11 out of 11 payouts for Over 2.5 Goals bets for Real Madrid games in this season’s tournament...
Atletico will need to try and come up with something special, but have only scored 3+ goals in one of their last 45 meetings v Real in all comps. Over 2.5 Goals is 4/5 (1.80) but with tournament top scorers Real not needing the goals, I’m happy to leave that one and look elsewhere this week...
Tonight’s match presents a good opportunity in the Cards & Booking Points markets...
Monaco for the Most Cards...
Juventus v Monaco
Champions League, Tue 7.45pm – BT Sport
- Bets on Monaco to receive the Most Cards or Booking Points have paid out in all 5 of their Champions League away games
Monaco are 2 goals down and it’s all-or-nothing for them tonight...
They have a tough challenge – to say the least. Juventus have the best defensive record in the competition and have kept 6 Clean Sheets in a row in Europe.
I like the look of the Most Cards/ Bookings stats where Monaco have a 100% strike-rate...
That bet has paid out in 5 out of 5 away games so far, and Monaco have received more Yellow Cards overall than any team left in the competition (average of 2.4 Yellow Cards For per game).
As I said last week ahead of the 1st Leg, the experience and guile of the Italian side could prove critical in this one – not least in the Most Cards/ Bookings betting...
Juventus have committed More Fouls than any team in the competition (average of 14.2 Fouls Committed per game), but have also Suffered More Fouls than any other team (average of 13.3 Fouls Suffered per game). With all that considered, Juventus have landed Most Cards/ Bookings bets in just 4 of their 11 Champions League games this season.
And Juventus have only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in one of their last 14 home games in all comps.
Monaco are bound to get desperate at some point here – right from kick off they’re in trouble and needing goals – and that situation sits nicely alongside their away Cards & Bookings form in the competition.
According to Oddschecker, Betway are the only bookie offering this market for tonight’s game (‘Most Cards’). But by shopping around we can actually find several options, with slightly different names. I’ve done the homework for you – here at the best prices...
Team with Most Booking Points – Monaco is a best price 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet and William Hill, or 4/5 (1.80) with Ladbrokes. Team with Most Cards – Monaco is 4/5 (1.80) with Betway. Monaco 0 Card Handicap is 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365. Cards markets are also available with 888 Sport, Marathonbet and NetBet. |
- Cards betting: Yellow Card = 1 Card, Red Card = 2 Cards. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red = 3 Cards (max. for one player)
- Booking Points betting: Yellow Card = 10 pts, Red Card = 25 pts. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red = 35 pts (max. for one player)
Midweek Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week is:
- Juventus v Monaco – Team with Most Booking Points – Monaco @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet, William Hill
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Enjoy the Champions League football.
I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis for the Premier League and Playoff fixtures...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
