Weekend Picks - Cards value for the Manchester derby...

Friday 9th September 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Man Utd v Man City – derby-day isn’t always dirty...
• Away-day value on Port Vale...
• Champions League starts next week... 

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks email...

Every Friday I’ll be hunting out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

I’ll be naming my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer.

The Premier League returns this weekend – and the markets have given us an opportunity in the Manchester derby (see below).

Two other Premier League games catch my eye on the stats, but the prices don’t cut the mustard...

Watford have won the Most Bookings in all 3 games so far, but are odds-on for that bet at West Ham this weekend, at as short as 4/9 (1.44).

Same for Chelsea to win the Most Corners at Swansea – they’ve done it 3 times out of 3 so far, but odds of 2/5 (1.40) are nothing to get excited about.

Better value can be found elsewhere...

Derby day isn’t always dirty...

Man Utd v Man City

Premier League, Sat 12.30pm – Sky Sports

• Under 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of the last 6 Manchester derbies

The biggest game of the weekend in the Premier League sees the two big Manchester clubs go head to head – along with two of the most successful managers in the world, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola...

Whenever there’s a derby match like this we see phrases like, ‘No love lost’... ‘Bitter rivalry’... and ‘Passion spilling over’... thrown about.

While that might be true for the fans, the stats don’t always support that assumption.

The bookies are betting Under/ Over 5.5 Cards here (or Under/ Over 55 Booking Points).

That’s 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts) more than the standard Premier League line of 3.5 Cards.

However, there’s little in the stats to suggest we’re about to see a ‘tear-up’ here.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that a derby match can get nasty. But more often than not, the recent meetings between Man Utd and Man City have paid out on the Under 5.5 Cards option...

Five of the last 6 meetings have gone Under 5.5. And this weekend’s Referee, Mark Clattenburg, was in charge for 2 of those Under games.

As for the early season form, 5 of the 6 total Premier League games played by these sides have been Under 5.5 Cards...

Those recent fixtures weren’t local derbies like this one – but the numbers hint that this won’t be as ugly as some might expect.

Looking at the match stats for the season to date, Man Utd and Man City are both averaging around 9 Fouls For per game – none of the 20 teams in the Premier League have a lower average than that right now.

With this being live on TV we have a pretty good range of Cards & Booking Points markets to choose from. Over 5.5 Cards is the favourite with the bookies, but the Under option looks the value here...

• Also available – Under 55 Booking Points at 5/4 (2.25) with Stan James, Evens (2.00) with Skybet

• Under 5.5 Cards is my preferred option, as it covers slightly more outcomes. For example, a game with 3 Yellow Cards and a straight Red would come to 5 Cards under the bookies’ terms (eg. win), but would come to 55 Booking Pts exactly (eg. lose)

The bookies listed above use this system:

Cards
Yellow Card = 1, Red Card = 2. Max. for one player = 3 Cards (Yellow & Red).

Booking Points
Yellow = 10 pts, Red = 25 pts. Max. for one player = 35 pts (Yellow & Red).

Away-day value on Port Vale...

Peterborough v Port Vale

League One, Sat 3.00pm

• Port Vale have won the Most Corners in their last 6 games in all comps

We’ve seen a few cases of Home/ Away bias already this season, and the Most Corners market looks wrong in this one...

As the home team, Peterborough have been priced up as the odds-on, 8/13 (1.62) favourites to win the Most Corners. But they have only landed that bet in one of their 6 League One games so far.

In fact, Peterborough have won the Most Corners in just one of 9 games in all comps this season. With opponents landing that bet in each of their last 4 games.

In comparison, Port Vale are joint-top of the League Stats table for ‘League One – Most Corners’ on our site, with an 83% record (5 games out of 6). 

Sheffield Utd are the only other League One side to match them – and they’re odds-on to win the Most Corners at AFC Wimbledon this weekend.

Port Vale won the Most Corners Home & Away against Peterborough last season. And the early 2016/17 form says they shouldn’t be the 8/5 (2.60) underdog for that bet this weekend...

Champions League starts next week...

Enjoy the weekend football. I’ll be back on Monday with a look at the latest results and stats trends from across the leagues...

Plus – the Champions League starts next week, and we’ll be looking at the Top Scorer market and the Match-day One fixtures on Tuesday.

P.S
You can view my Champions League – Outright Winner analysis from earlier this week here.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues