Weekend Picks - Swans can make it 13 in a row...

Friday 10th February 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Top-Rated Match-Ups…
• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Swans can make it 13 in a row...
• Collins value to score again...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks & Analysis email...

Every Friday I hunt out the best prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer...

I’ve gone through the Head-2-Head, League Stats and Team Stats on our site on your behalf, to flag up the Top-Rated Match-Ups for this weekend.

These are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you.

• The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – so see below for my own value Picks

There’s a full fixture list this weekend and the stats take us from the Premier League right down to League Two...

Swansea v Leicester

Premier League, Sun 4pm – Sky Sports

• Most Corners = Swansea 75% home v Leicester 33% away

Swansea have won the Most Corners in each of their last 8 home games, while Leicester have landed that bet in just 6 of 24 Premier League games in total...

This is a strong match-up and the home team look a solid enough favourite for the Most Corners at around 4/6 (1.67) in general (Bet365, William Hill, Marathonbet). There’s an even stronger trend for this game in the Goals markets though – and at a bigger price. See Picks below.

West Ham v West Brom

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Over 3.5 Cards = West Ham home 92% v West Brom away 75%
  

West Ham are the top-rated home team in the Premier League for Over 3.5 Cards bets, and West Brom’s 75% record makes this an eye-catching match-up.

West Ham home games are averaging 5.6 Total Cards, with West Brom’s away figure at 4.3. However, Referee Michael Oliver has one of the lowest averages at 3.6 Cards per game. And with the Over 3.5 Cards option only available with one bookie at the time of writing – 4/5 (1.80) at Bet365 – this one doesn’t quite make the cut for a Pick for me.

Peterborough v Sheffield Utd

League One, Sat 3pm

• Most Corners = Peterborough 43% home v Sheff Utd 79% away
  

Sheff Utd are the No.1 team in our League One Most Corners standings, with 25 payouts from 30 games in total this season – including in 19 of their last 20 games. They’ve won more corner kicks than any other team in the division, and even playing away from home this week, they’re still priced up as short odds-on favourites for the Most Corners – at 4/9 (1.44) with William Hill.

Bournemouth v Man City

Premier League, Mon 8pm – Sky Sports

• Over 2.5 Goals = Bournemouth ranked 5th v Man City ranked 2nd
  

The Monday Night Football features two of the current top teams for Over 2.5 Goals bets. Bournemouth and Man City are both in our Top 10 in the country for that bet right now, with 8 payouts each from their last 10 league games (80%).

Man City have beaten Bournemouth 4-0, 4-0 and 5-1 in their last 3 meetings. It’s fair to expect some goals here and the bookies think so too, with Over 2.5 Goals priced pretty short at 8/15 (1.54). There’s a better price available for us in that market elsewhere...

Two bets in particular standout for me this weekend...

Swans can make it 13 in a row...

Swansea v Leicester

Premier League, Sun 4pm – Sky Sports

• Over 2.5 Goals = Swansea 83% home v Leicester 67% away
  

This week’s Sky Sports ‘Super Sunday’ teatime game is a relegation battle, with Swansea and Leicester both just a point above the bottom three.

Swansea are on the longest Over 2.5 Goals streak of any team in the top four divisions right now, with each of their last 12 games featuring 3+ goals...

Leicester have lost 3 of their last 4 league games by the 3-0 score-line, and two thirds of their away games have gone Over 2.5 Goals this season.

The last 3 meetings between these sides have paid out on that Over 2.5 Goals option, too.

Swansea haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 10 games in all comps, and Leicester are without a Clean Sheet in 7.

With all those stats in mind, it’s a little surprising to see Over 2.5 Goals priced up as the least likely option in the Total Goals market...

Collins value to score again...

Luton v Crawley

League Two, Sat 3pm

• James Collins has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 5 games
  

Crawley forward James Collins (13 goals) is ranked 5th on the League Two Top Scorer table, with John Akinde (Barnet, 19 goals) and John Marquis (Doncaster, 18 goals) leading the way.

However, when we look at the specific betting stats on the League Two Scorer stats on our site, Collins is punching at a higher weight: ranked up in 3rd for Anytime Scorer payouts (13 in 28 appearances) and ranked 1st for First Scorer payouts (8)...

The recent form shows Collins is a man in form, too, with 4 ‘Anytime’ payouts in his last 5 games, and 4 First Scorer payouts in his last 9.

Akinde and Marquis are both around Evens (2.00) to score in their respective away games this weekend, but Collins can be backed at a standout 11/4 (3.75) to find the net at Luton...

Luton are the match favourites and 10 points ahead of Crawley in the table – but significantly, have only kept 2 Clean Sheets in 14 League Two home games this season.

Collins is one of the form scorers in the Football League right now, and looks good value here...

• If you like a more speculative price, Collins is a standout 17/2 (9.50) First Scorer with those same top-price firms (Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet) compared to just 5/1 (6.00) in general
  

Coming up...

I’ll be back later this afternoon with your brand new ATL Extra email – taking an additional look at the weekend stats, games, markets & prices – along with my Premier League Score Predictions...

And on Monday I’ll be in touch as usual with your Weekend Stats Review – taking in the latest results and trends from across the leagues.

Before we then head into the first round of Champions League Knockout games on Tuesday...

Enjoy the football,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues