Weekend Picks - Big trends for Both Teams to Score...

Friday 11th November 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Big trends for Both Teams to Score...
• And a 4/1 Eye-catcher for Walsall...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks email...

Every Friday I hunt out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer….

As I said in Wednesday’s email, the International break in the top flight means we’re focusing on the lower leagues this weekend...

I’d hoped for a good set of Cards & Booking and Corners markets for the three live Sky Sports games in League One – namely Chesterfield (Most Bookings) v Sheffield United (Most Corners). But so far only William Hill are up with a full set for those particular options.

Better news if you like to bet on the Under/ Over Total Corners stats, as I know some of you do. William Hill, Bet365 and 10Bet have got Total Corners bets available for all the League One and League Two fixtures this weekend.

I’ve also had a few requests for Referee info...

You can view the full list of Football League Referee Appointments for this week’s games here. And our unique betting stats for each Referee in each division are available on the League Stats pages on your members-only Across the Leagues website.

My weekend notebook…

Portsmouth are top of our League Two ‘Most Corners’ table and have a 100% home record for that bet. They also have a 100% home record for -1 Corner Handicap bets...

However, while this weekend’s visitors Mansfield match up well on the stats (just 2 out of 7 away Most Corners wins), the prices don’t appeal. Portsmouth are short odds-on at just 2/7 (1.29) for the Most Corners, and 4/9 (1.44) for the -1 Corner Handicap.

There are better opportunities for us elsewhere...

If you look at the League Two pages on our site, you’ll see the likes of Hartlepool v Cheltenham and Luton v Gillingham stand out on the Both Teams to Score stats.

But the form & figures for two League One games appeal to me most of all in that market...

Big trends for Both Teams to Score...

Millwall v Bristol Rovers

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 13 of Millwall’s last 14 league games

On Wednesday I mentioned this game as one that stands out on the Goals stats. And having looked closer at the figures, it’s the Both Teams to Score market that leaps out...

Millwall (87% record) and Bristol Rovers (88%) are ranked 3rd and 1st respectively on the League Stats – League One ‘Both Teams to Score’ chart on our website.

Those percentages translate into 13 out of 15 payouts for Millwall, and 14 out of 16 for Rovers.

The Home v Away figures drop slightly, but on our Head-2-Head page this is still a 71% v 75% match-up for Both Teams to Score.

A trip over to the Match Results tab in our League One stats shows that Millwall have so far Scored In all but one of their 7 home games, while Rovers have found the net in 7 out of 8 away.

And perhaps most significantly of all, these sides are joint 2nd-bottom of the Clean Sheets standings – just one in 15 games for Millwall, and just one in 16 for Rovers.

We’ve successfully backed Bristol Rovers three times in this market already this season, with the prices going from 4/5 (1.80), to 15/19 (1.79) to 4/6 (1.67) last time out.

Odds of 4/6 and better are available again here, for what looks one of the very best Both Teams to Score selections of the weekend.

Goals expected at Gillingham, too...

Gillingham v Northampton

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 10 out of 10 Gillingham home games in all comps this season

Another strong combination of Both Teams to Score stats here, with both teams’ games seeing plenty of goals at both ends of the pitch...

Gillingham are joint-top of our League One chart alongside Bristol Rovers, with an 88% overall record (14 payouts from 16 games). While their home record stands at 100%.

Newly-promoted Northampton have been involved in some end-to-end games lately, with 3-2 and 4-2 wins – and 3-1 and 3-2 defeats – among the 6 Both Teams to Score results in their last 7 league fixtures.

A look at the Scored In and Clean Sheets numbers on our League One – Match Results pages shows that Gillingham have scored in all 8 of their home games (100%), but failed to keep a Clean Sheet all season (16 games).

Northampton have found the net 6 times out of 8 away (75%) while keeping just one Clean Sheet on their travels.

The bookies’ prices make Both Teams to Score around a 60% chance here. But our Head-2-Head stats show this game features a team with a 100% home record for that bet, taking on a team with a 75% away record...

One more note from me today...

Oztumer jumps out at 4/1...

If you like to bet at bigger prices, keep an eye out for Walsall midfielder Erhun Oztumer (MK Dons v Walsall).

Oztumer is joint 4th Top Scorer in League One this season (8 goals), and also 4th on our Anytime Scorer chart with 7 payouts from 14 appearances.

The 5ft 3in Turkish player has bettered that one-in-two strike-rate in recent weeks, landing Anytime Scorer bets in 3 of Walsall’s last 4 league games.

This week’s opponents MK Dons have kept just one Clean Sheet in 8 home games this season, and at the prices available Oztumer catches the eye for the away team...

Paddy Power – not for the first time this season – have stuck their neck out, offering an industry best 4/1 (5.00) for Oztumer in the Anytime Scorer market, and 12/1 (13.00) to be First Scorer.

Those prices certainly jump out, seeing as elsewhere Oztumer is as short as 19/10 (2.90) Anytime Scorer and 11/2 (6.50) First Scorer.

At those standout Paddy Power prices, the diminutive midfielder could prove value this week – and in upcoming games, too.

Enjoy the football.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review – taking in the latest results & trends from across the leagues…

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues