Football Betting Stats

Premier League Predictions - 100/1 final day madness...

Friday 19th May 2017

In your Across the Leagues – EXTRA email today:

  • Final day madness...
  • Goals galore at 100/1?!
  • Premier League Predictions...

Sunday sees the final day of the 2016/17 Premier League season. This is traditionally a set of games that has a different feel to most, and as such I’m taking a slightly different approach with the stats this weekend...

Final day madness...

Last night Tottenham thumped Leicester 6-1 away. A look through the Premier League history books says we shouldn’t be too surprised by a few more big, crazy score-lines like that on Sunday afternoon.

I’ve gone through the last 10 Premier League seasons and rounded up the ‘final day’ stats and score-lines. The findings tell us to expect plenty of goals – and a few wacky Correct Score results...

2015/16 final day:
Over 2.5 Goals = 7 out of 10 games
Over 3.5 Goals = 5
Notable score-lines: 4-0, 5-1, 4-1

2014/15:
Over 2.5 Goals = 4
Over 3.5 Goals = 4
Notable score-lines: 4-1, 5-1, 6-1

2013/14:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 2
Notable score-lines: 2-2, 1-3

2012/13:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 4
Notable score-lines: 2-3, 5-5, 4-2

2011/12:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 5
Notable score-lines: 3-2 (x 3)

2010/11:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 4
Notable score-lines: 4-2, 3-3, 3-2

2009/10:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 4
Notable score-lines: 4-0 (x 2), 4-2, 8-0

2008/09:
Over 2.5 Goals = 4
Over 3.5 Goals = 3
Notable score-lines: 4-1, 2-3

2007/08:
Over 2.5 Goals = 5
Over 3.5 Goals = 5
Notable score-lines: 4-1, 0-4, 8-1

2006/07:
Over 2.5 Goals = 6
Over 3.5 Goals = 5
Notable score-lines: 3-3

  • In summary, that’s 56% of final day games Over 2.5 Goals
  • And more significantly considering the prices involved – 41% paying out on the higher Over 3.5 Goals line

This weekend, the bookies have 9 of the 10 Premier League games priced at odds-on for Over 2.5 Goals, at 10/11 (1.91) or less. Man Utd v Palace is the only exception.

But all 10 games are priced at odds-against for Over 3.5 Goals. At odds in the region of 7/5 (2.40) and bigger, with all 10 over Evens (2.00+)...

The stats and prices suggest that if you’re looking for a Goals tactic in this weekend’s Premier League games, going for the higher than usual Over 3.5 Goals option in the Under/ Over Total Goals market is likely to prove the most profitable route.

Goals galore at 100/1?!

Continuing on the Goals theme, I thought I’d take things a step further and look at the Correct Score market for the final day, too...

As the ‘notable score-lines’ highlighted above show, there have been a fair few high-scoring draws and big victories on recent final days.

Here are the prices available for the Correct Score outcomes in my Predictions this weekend (see table below):

Arsenal 3-0 @ 10/1
Burnley 4-2 @ 60/1
Chelsea 4-1 @ 16/1
Tottenham 3-0 @ 11/1
Bournemouth 3-1 @ 33/1
Liverpool 5-2 @ 100/1
Man Utd 1-0 @ 17/2
Southampton-Stoke 2-2 @ 15/1
Swansea-West Brom 2-2 @ 16/1
Man City 3-1 @ 21/2

A few eye-catching prices there – and in all those games, Bet365 or BetVictor are the bookies offering the biggest Correct Score prices.

And though they might seem a little far-fetched, these kinds of score-lines do come in from time to time – especially at this time of year...

Tottenham’s 6-1 win was around 80/1 last night, while Bayern Munich had a 500/1 Correct Score result in their recent 5-4 away win against Red Bull Leipzig.

MATCH PREDICTOR – Enter your predictions...

BRENDANELSON was the top scoring player in our Premier League Mini League last week. But it’s last season’s winner CHRISSIE13 who sits top of the overall table and looks a strong favourite to make it back-to-back titles. Let’s see what scores come up on the final day...

  • We’re offering a £100 prize to our Mini League winner at the end of the season
  • You’ll find the Mini League section by clicking on the Game Lobby button. Then scroll down to Mini Leagues and click ‘Join Existing’

Here are my full Predictions for this weekend’s Premier League games. And as ever, in the interests of comparison, here’s what Paul Merson on Sky Sports and Mark Lawrenson on the BBC think, too...

GAME

ME

MERSON

LAWRO

Arsenal v Everton
3-0
3-1
2-0
Burnley v West Ham
4-2
2-0
2-0
Chelsea v Sunderland
4-1
4-0
3-0
Hull v Tottenham
0-3
0-3
0-2
Leicester v Bournemouth
1-3
2-2
2-0
Liverpool v Middlesbrough
5-2
2-0
2-0
Man Utd v Crystal Palace
1-0
3-2
1-1
Southampton v Stoke
2-2
3-1
1-2
Swansea v West Brom
2-2
2-1
2-1
Watford v Man City
1-3
0-3
0-3

I’ll be back again soon with a look at the stats for the end of season schedule – we have the Playoffs and some big Cup finals still to come...

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra

Facebook

We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this email. All prices correct at time of sending to subscribers.

Copyright © 2017 Oxfordshire Press.