Weekend Stats Review - and Champions League latest odds...

Monday 20th March 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Stats Review...
• Goals galore for the Gills...
• Top trends from Across the Leagues...
• Champions League – latest odds...
• Coming up this week... 

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Stats Review...

Every Monday we take stock of the latest stats trends on our site...

• Full tables displaying the top-ranked teams and bets in each division are on the League Stats pages on our site

Goals galore for the Gills...

My weekend Picks focused on the Total Goals markets, and I ended up one goal away from a winning day on Saturday.

Swansea remain the top-rated team in the Premier League for OVER 2.5 Goals bets (76% season-long record), but their 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth was one goal off this time. That was just the 2nd game in the Swans’ last 17 that has failed to land Over 2.5 Goals.

In League One, Bristol Rovers have been the form team for UNDER 2.5 Goals since the end of January (8 out of 10 payouts), but again this weekend was one of the games that went ‘just one goal’ the wrong way...

An 85th minute consolation for hapless Chesterfield – who lost 2-1 at Rovers, are second-bottom of League One and have now won just one of their last 12 games – bucking the recent low goals stats here.

In the League One OVER 2.5 Goals chart though, Gillingham continue to churn out the high-scoring results...

A 4-1 defeat at Rochdale means Gillingham sit 2nd in the division overall for Over 2.5 Goals payouts this season – with an eye-catching 80% away strike-rate for that bet.

And on the Gills’ recent form, that’s 8 games in a row for Over 2.5 Goals, and 12 in 13 for Both Teams to Score.

Top trends from Across the Leagues...

Elsewhere in the updated stats on our site…

• West Brom 3 Arsenal 1 – More problems for Arsene Wenger here; his Arsenal side have now won just one of their last 7 Premier League away games – losing each of the last 3 on the road by the 3-1 Correct Score
  
• Crystal Palace 1 Watford 0 – There were just 5 corners in this game, a tally that keeps Watford in 1st place on our Premier League table for Under 10.5 Corners bets (75% overall record)
  
• Wigan 0 Aston Villa 2 – Villa are now the No.1 team in the Championship for Under 2.5 Goals bets, including 16 out of 20 payouts on the road (80% away record). Each of Villa’s last 7 league games have now gone ‘Under’
  
• Peterborough 1 Oldham 1 – Yet another Under 2.5 Goals result for Oldham... that’s 9 in their last 10 away games now, and 79% overall for the season – which puts them in the No.1 spot in League One for that bet
• Stevenage 3 Portsmouth 0 – This was a big game in the promotion race, with 4th place Stevenage closing the gap on 3rd place Portsmouth in League Two. Stevenage are ranked 1st for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with a high 84% home record (16 payouts from 19 home games)

Check out the League Stats tables and Team Stats pages on our site for more...

We have unique betting stats covering over 30 betting markets, across all 92 teams in the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two…

Log-in at: www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Champions League – latest odds...

The Champions League Quarter Final draw was made last Friday, and the Last 8 line-up includes some blockbuster ties...

With the updated Outright Winner market now looking like this:

In search of value...

With the bookies now betting just 1/3rd the odds Each Way for reaching the final (compared to 1/2 odds pre-season), it’s hard to make a case for the underdogs at the current prices...

From my pre-season Outright Winner analysis, original 12/1 Pick, Man City, are out – having lost to Monaco in the last round. While of the other teams on that process-of-elimination checklist from back in September, Borussia Dortmund are the one remaining contender...

Dortmund are right up there with Barcelona and Bayern Munich as the top-scoring sides in this season’s competition, and are favourites to get past Monaco in the Quarter Finals next month. However, odds of 9/1 don’t really catch the eye, as they’d likely be the underdog in the Semi Final against anyone other than Leicester.

Elsewhere, if you’re looking beyond the big three of Barcelona, Bayern and Real Madrid (one of which will definitely be knocked out remember)...

11/1 Juventus have the best defensive record in the competition, but would need to get past Barcelona, who after their heroics in turning round a 4-0 deficit v PSG in the last round, might have an ‘our name’s on the trophy’ air about them from now on.

While our 20/1 finalist from last season, seasoned pros Atletico Madrid, are just 6/1 – which isn’t appealing considering they could yet have to knock out one of the really big names in the Semi Final just to land Each Way place odds of 2/1 (and that’s assuming they overcome Leicester).

It could well be that the Outright Winner prices open up an opportunity for us during the Quarter Finals – for example, Barcelona drifted to 66/1 after losing their 1st Leg in the last round...

• We’ll be on the case and on the hunt in both the Outright Winner and match-day stats markets, when the Champions League resumes next month (11th April)
  
• Our Champions League match-day Picks are showing a 20% ROI so far, and with solid form in the book, the Quarter Finals and beyond should give us a good few more opportunities

Coming up this week...

We have an International break this week, with Friendly matches and World Cup 2018 Qualifiers taking place. That means no Premier League or Championship action.

But we do have plenty games to look at in League One and League Two...

Including a full set of fixtures at the weekend, with Scunthorpe v Bradford and Doncaster v Plymouth live on Sky Sports.

TV games usually mean we get more Cards and Corners markets available with the bookies...

And along with Oxford v Bolton on Sky tomorrow night, there could be some standout bets for us midweek and also in Friday’s Picks & Analysis email.

I’ll be back tomorrow, with a look at the stats and prices available across the 5 Tuesday night games taking place in the lower leagues...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues