Champions League Picks - Follow Porto's 100% trend... 

Tuesday 21st February 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Top-Rated Match-Ups…
• Champions League Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Follow Porto’s 100% trend...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Midweek Picks & Analysis email...

Before every round of games I hunt out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…

The Champions League Knockout stages continue this week with four 1st Leg ties:

Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid – tonight
Man City v Monaco – tonight
Porto v Juventus – Wed
Sevilla v Leicester – Wed

All the Champions League games kick off at 7.45pm, and they’re all live on BT Sport.

We also have a midweek Football League fixture list with several Championship, League One and League Two games taking place over the next two evenings…

I’ve gone through the Head-2-Head, League Stats and Team Stats on our site on your behalf, to flag up the top-rated match-ups.

These are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you.

• The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – see below for my own value Picks

Fourteen of our last 18 highlighted Match-Ups have proved successful. Here are the fixtures that jump out in my midweek research…

Colchester United v Wycombe

League Two, 7.45pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 6 of Colchester’s last 7 games
  

We looked at Wycombe’s Both Teams to Score record last week (11 payouts in last 13 games in all comps now) – and Colchester match up well with plenty of goals at both ends in their recent fixtures, too.

Add in the fact that Colchester are without a Clean Sheet in 7 games and Wycombe have kept just one in 13, and this does look a noteworthy Both Teams to Score contender. Odds of around 8/11 (1.73) look fair, if not particularly attention grabbing.

Under 2.5 Goals

Champions League

• Atletico Madrid and Juventus are the top two Under 2.5 Goals teams on the Champions League Historical Stats on our website
  

Atletico Madrid are our top-ranked Historical team for Under 2.5 Goals bets over the past three Champions League seasons, and that form has continued with 5 out of 6 payouts in the Group stage in this campaign (and 4 Clean Sheets). The ‘Under’ bet paid out in 4 of Leverkusen’s 6 Groups games, too.

Juventus are the 2nd placed team on our long-term Under 2.5 Goals standings for the competition, and they’re also proving reliable again this season with 4 out of 6 payouts in the Group stage – as well as in 5 of their last 6 Italian Serie A league games. Opponents Porto played out 4 out of 6 Group games Under 2.5 Goals.

In both cases the bookies have Under 2.5 Goals as the favourite in the Total Goal market, with odds of around 4/7 (1.57) for each of those two games. Those stats are solid, but there’s a better price available in Europe this week…

One midweek stat in particular stands out for me…

Follow Porto’s 100% trend...

Porto v Juventus

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Bets on Porto to win the Most Corners paid out in all 6 of their Champions League Group games

Porto have a 100% Most Corners record so far – and they’ve also landed the -1 Corner Handicap in 6 out of 6 games in the competition this season...

In comparison, Juventus have won the corner tally in just half of their Champions League games – and in just one out of 3 away.

It’s fair to argue that Porto had the ‘easier’ Group opposition, but the longer-term (three seasons) form on our site shows Porto have won the Most Corners in 60% of home games in the Champions League – with Juventus’ away record at just 22%.

Porto are proving strong at home with Most Corners wins in 8 of last 10 home games in the Portuguese league – with all 8 of those games also paying out on the -1 Corner Handicap.

Only big guns Barcelona and Bayern Munich have got a lower ‘Corners Against’ average in the completion than Porto’s 2.67 per game this season. And with Juventus short odds-on 2/7 (1.29) favourites to qualify over the two Legs, Porto may well find themselves needing to push for a goal at some point here.

Enjoy the midweek football...

I’ll be back on Friday afternoon with your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues