Weekend Picks - Reds and Swans on the Corners...

Friday 21st April 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Top-Rated Match-Ups…
• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Liverpool strongest on the Corners...
• Swans standout on the Corners, too...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks & Analysis email...

Every weekend I hunt out the best prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…

I had a ‘near miss’ with my midweek Champions League Pick, with Real Madrid winning a 93rd-minute corner to prevent Bayern Munich from landing the -1 Corner Handicap.

The full time corners score was 7-6 to Bayern – it was 10-7 to Bayern after extra time, but match markets only apply to normal time.

Real Madrid won 4-2 on the night, having lost 1-2 in normal time. That kept up Real’s 100% record for Over 2.5 Goals games in Europe this season – and 12 of our 14 Top-Rated Match-Up stats have now proved successful so far in April.

On to the weekend domestic fixtures now...

• I’ve gone through the Head-2-Head, League Stats and Team Stats on our site on your behalf, to flag up the Top-Rated Match-Ups. These are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you

• The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – so see below for my own value Picks

West Ham v Everton

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of West Ham’s last 10 games

My first thought for this one was ‘goals’ – and the recent form certainly backs that up...

Over 2.5 Goals bets have each paid out in 8 of West Ham’s last 10 games, and it’s the same strike-rate for Both Teams to Score. Six of Everton’s last 7 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals – with the higher Over 3.5 Goals option actually paying out in 4 of their last 5.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at 8/11 (1.73) in general.

West Ham v Everton

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Under 10.5 Corners record = West Ham 81% home v Everton 75% away

There’s also a strong, season-long home v away Corners match-up for this game...

West Ham are ranked 2nd in the Premier League Under 10.5 Corners chart on our website. That bet has paid out in 7 of the Hammers’ last 10 games overall, and in 8 of Everton’s last 10 away.

West Ham home games are averaging 8.3 Total Corners this season; Everton away games are averaging 9.2 Total Corners.

Most bookies are going with the lower Under 9.5 Corners line here. But Under 10.5 Corners is available with the likes of Stan James and Marathonbet, at around 8/11 (1.73).

Coventry v Walsall

League One, Sat 3pm

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 of both teams’ last 10 games

This is one of the strongest stats match-ups of the weekend, with Under 2.5 Goals paying out in 9 of Coventry’s last 10 games and also in 9 of Walsall’s last 10...

It was 1-1 last time they met. And Walsall are ranked 2nd in League One for this bet this season, including a 77% away record. All good on the stats then, but with Coventry already relegated and Walsall safe in mid-table, it’s hard to know what to expect from both sides here. Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) in general.

Huddersfield v Fulham

Championship, Sat 3pm

• Huddersfield have won the Most Corners in 90% of home games

Backing Huddersfield to win the Most Corners has given 19 payouts from 21 league games at the John Smith’s Stadium this season – a very impressive 90% record that puts them on the radar for this bet in most home games.

Fulham have only won the Most Corners in one of their last 7 away games. Although it’s worth noting that they are ranked 2nd only to Huddersfield for this bet overall (home & away combined) for the season.

The home stats dominate here though, but with William Hill the only option at odds of 4/6 (1.67), there are stronger and more widely available corner selections available for us elsewhere this weekend – see Picks below.

Two Premier League games catch the eye in the Corners markets this weekend...

Liverpool strongest on the Corners...

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Premier League, Sun 4.30pm – Sky Sports

• Liverpool -3 and -4 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 home games

This is 3rd v 15th in the Premier League table and the Home Win is odds-on at 1/2 (1.50). But Liverpool have won just 2 of their last 6 league encounters with Palace – and Sam Allardyce’s team have beaten both Arsenal and Chelsea in recent weeks...

A far more attractive option is to follow Liverpool’s strong 75% home Most Corners record, and back them in the Corner Handicap market...

Liverpool are 1/4 (1.25) for the Most Corners but can be backed at Evens (2.00) with a -3 Corner Handicap (to win at least 4 corners more than Palace).

That -3 Handicap, and also the bigger -4 Corner Handicap, has paid out in 4 of their last 5 at Anfield. And significantly, has also paid out in 6 of Liverpool’s 8 home games v sides currently in the Bottom Half of the Premier League table.

Palace have been comprehensively out-cornered in each of their 3 away trips to Top 6 sides to date, with the corner tallies being: 9-3 to Chelsea, 8-4 to Arsenal and 11-3 to Tottenham. A -3 Corner Handicap paid out on opponents on all 3 occasions.

For the season, Liverpool are averaging 3.6 Corners per home game more than opponents. And only Man City have won more corner kicks in Total than Liverpool.

A look at Oddschecker tells you that Liverpool -4 Corner Handicap is the only option available. But by shopping around we can get the more attractive -3 Corner Handicap, and at a decent price, too.

We successfully backed this option in Liverpool’s last home game, a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth (corners = 7-2), and it looks a solid pick again this weekend...

Swans standout on the Corners, too...

Swansea v Stoke

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Swansea have won the Most Corners in 11 of their last 12 home games

Swansea have won the Most Corners in 9 of their last 10 games v fellow Bottom Half sides, and in 14 of 17 such meetings for the season.

At home, they’ve landed -2 and -2.5 Corner Handicap bets in 6 out of 7 games v Bottom Half sides.

Swansea have a 75% home record for Most Corners bets, putting them 6th of 20 teams on our Premier League standings for that bet.

Stoke are rock bottom of the Most Corners bets chart, with just 3 payouts from 16 away trips (19%).

Opponents have landed the -2 and -2.5 Corner Handicap in 6 of Stoke’s last 8 games. And in 6 of their last 8 on the road going right back to 27th December.

The -2 or -2.5 Corner Handicap requires Swansea to win at least 3 corners more than Stoke. On average for the season, opponents are winning 3.3 Corners per away game more than Stoke.

And when we add in the end-of-season situation – Swansea are in the relegation zone and desperate for points, Stoke are safe in mid-table – the case for Swansea needing to ‘go for it’ grows stronger...

Swansea are odds-on at 4/9 (1.44) for the Most Corners, but as with the Liverpool game we can get around Evens (2.00) for the home team with a very achievable-looking Corner Handicap.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Stats Review, taking in the latest trends ahead of the next rounds of games.

Enjoy the weekend football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues