Weekend Picks - Going for goals on Saturday night...

Friday 21st October 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Going for goals on Saturday night...
• Over 3.5 Cards market catches the eye...
• Another one to watch at 7/1...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks email...

Every Friday I hunt out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…

On Wednesday night, Atletico Madrid’s 1-0 win at Rostov made it a profitable week for our Champions League Picks (Win To Nil bets have now paid out in 13 of Atletico’s last 14 Champions League match wins).

The stats have thrown up some highly-rated opportunities in the Premier League and Football League this weekend, too. Although not all of them make the cut for a bet...

Chelsea v Man Utd is the big TV game in the Premier League, and Man Utd are around 5/6 (1.83) to keep up their 100% away Most Bookings trend. However, with the likes of the fiery Diego Costa in the Chelsea team, and the added spice for both clubs of Jose Mourinho returning to Stamford Bridge, the Most Bookings market might be best left alone in this one.

In the Championship, Sheffield Wednesday have a 100% home record for Most Corners bets, and take on a QPR side that have only landed them bet once in 6 away trips. But odds of just 2/5 (1.40) for Sheff Wed don’t really appeal.

Likewise in League One, where Millwall are also 100% at home for Most Corners, taking on Fleetwood who are yet to win the Most Corners in 6 away games. The home team are short odds-on at just 4/11 (1.36).

Better value can be found elsewhere – see below for my two Picks.

Liverpool v West Brom is the Saturday evening game on BT Sport, but it’s the Sky Sports game that gets my attention...

Going for goals on Saturday night...

Nottingham Forest v Cardiff

Championship, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 11 of Nottingham Forest’s last 12 games in all comps

The stats suggest this Saturday night live TV game could be an entertaining one...

Forest are joint-top of our League Stats – Championship table for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with 11 payouts from 13 games (85%).

On Tuesday night they lost 2-1 at Blackburn, following a 3-1 win over Birmingham last Friday. Stretching the form out to the season as a whole, 14 of Forest’s 16 games in all comps have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Three of the 4 meetings between these sides in the last two seasons have paid out on the 'Over' bet.

And Cardiff’s recent away record for Over 2.5 Goals is strong, with that bet paying out in 4 of their last 5 away games.

Forest and Cardiff are both in the Top 5 on our Championship Totals chart on our site for Most Goals Conceded, and both in the Bottom 4 for Clean Sheets. Forest are the favourites to win this game, but they are the only team in the division yet to keep a Clean Sheet...

The bookies’ prices say this is a 50-50 game for Over 2.5 Goals, but these are some of the strongest stats of the weekend...

Over 3.5 Cards market catches the eye...

Swansea v Watford

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 8 of Watford’s Premier League games

Watford’s 100% record for Over 3.5 Cards bets put this game on the radar for me. They are the most-booked side in the Premier League, with a total of 24 Yellows and 1 Red Card.

And with Swansea’s stats making them a good opponent for a potential ‘high cards’ game, I was surprised to see the bookies sticking with the standard 3.5 Cards line here...

The Premier League Stats Archive on our site shows Swansea were our top-rated home team for Over 3.5 Cards bets last season, paying out in 15 out of 19 games at the Liberty Stadium (79%).

Things are looking similar this season with 3 out of 4 Swansea home games going Over 3.5 Cards so far (75%).

Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in both meetings between these sides last season. And both teams’ home/ away games are averaging ‘Over’ this season, 4.3 Total Cards per Swansea home game and 4.5 per Watford away game.

When looking at a Total Cards bet it also pays to take note of the match Referee. The man in question here is Paul Tierney. His recent record tells us that he has shown at least 3 Yellow Cards in 6 of his last 8 games in all competitions.

Often in games with stats like this we see the line set higher than usual, at 4.5 Cards. The Over 3.5 Cards option looks decent value in this game.

• Check also for Total Cards markets with 888 Sport and Unibet between now and kick off. A range of Total Cards and Booking Points options are also available with William Hill

And finally...

Another one to watch at 7/1...

Separate to my Pick on Atletico To Win To Ni on Wednesday night, I also flagged up Atletico Madrid midfielder Yannick Carrasco as ‘one to watch’ at decent prices.

Carrasco got the only goal of the game in the 1-0 Champions League win over Rostov, rewarding anyone who followed him in the Scorer markets – Anytime Scorer 5/2 (3.50), First Scorer 7/1 (8.00).

I’ve since had a couple of emails from members asking for more info like that. I know some of you like to bet at fancy prices (share your thoughts by sending me a message here). And I’ll certainly flag up the odd player or two when the stats, prices and match situation are worthy of a mention.

The two bets above are my value Picks for the weekend.

But if you like to bet at bigger odds, then you might want to look out for Jermain Defoe (West Ham v Sunderland)...

Defoe has scored 4 of Sunderland’s 6 goals so far – and scored 11 times between New Year’s Day and May to play a huge part in keeping them in the Premier League last season.

He’s also got Sunderland’s only 2 away goals so far this season. And is by far their main goal threat against his old club West Ham this weekend. Defoe is a best price 13/5 (3.60) Anytime Scorer and 7/1 (8.00) First Scorer with 888 Sport.

Enjoy the football.

I’ll be back with your Weekend Stats Review email on Monday, bringing you up to date on the latest numbers from across the leagues...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues