Weekend Picks - Watford great value in the Cards markets... 

Friday 30th September 2016

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Watford great value in the Cards markets...
• Go for goals at the top of League One... 

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks email...

Every Friday I hunt out the best value prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer….

We’ve had a good week so far, with Ronaldo Anytime Scorer and Tottenham Most Corners winners in the Champions League.

This weekend it’s the Most Cards and Over 2.5 Goals markets that catch my eye, in the Premier League and League One respectively.

I did also have the AFC Wimbledon v Gillingham game down as a strong contender for a Both Teams to Score bet. The League Stats – League One Goals tables on our site show both teams are ranked 90% for that bet right now. But the bookies are on top of that particular trend, making Both Teams to Score a clear favourite at around 8/13 (1.62).

We can get better value elsewhere...

Watford great value in the Cards markets...

Watford v Bournemouth

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Watford have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League – 20 Yellow Cards and 1 Red Card
  

I’ve already spoken about incorrect home/ away bias a couple of times this season. And this looks another case of the bookies making a wrong assumption...

As the away team, Bournemouth appear to have been ‘automatically’ priced up as the odds-on favourite for the Most Cards & Booking Points with Bet365, 888 Sport and Marathonbet.

However, the stats say otherwise. And pretty strongly, too...

Watford have got more Yellow Cards (20) than any other team in the Premier League this season – averaging 3.3 per game.

In comparison, no team has less than Bournemouth’s 6 Yellows – an average of just 1.0 per game.

Looking closer – at individual games – we can see that Bournemouth have received 1 Yellow Card or less in 6 out of 8 games in all comps this season.

While Watford have received 3+ Yellow Cards in 5 of their 6 Premier League games.

The current League Stats on our site show that Watford have landed Most Bookings bets in 4 out of 6 games, compared to just 1 out of 6 for Bournemouth.

This is no flash in the pan ‘early season’ trend, either...

Under Eddie Howe, Bournemouth have been consistently well-behaved. The League Stats Archive pages on our site show that Bournemouth landed Most Bookings bets in just 6 of 19 (32%) Premier League away games last season – whereas Watford were the top-ranked team for that bet both at home (58%) and overall (63%).

In this fixture last season (played in February this year), Watford landed the Most Bookings bet, 3 Yellow Cards to 1, at home v Bournemouth.

There’s a difference of opinion among the bookies here, and that’s often a sign that there’s value to be found...

William Hill and Stan James make Watford the favourite for the Most Bookings. But Bet365, 888 Sport and Marathonbet make Watford the underdogs.

What’s more, we can even back Watford with a head start in the Cards Handicap market – meaning the Watford option pays out in the event of a ‘Cards Tie,’ too...

The home team look great value here.

• If you’re feeling more adventurous or prefer bigger prices... Watford to win the Most Cards outright is best price 127/50 (3.54) with Marathonbet (‘Most Yellow Cards’ market), 23/10 (3.30) with 888 Sport (‘Most Cards) and 9/4 (3.25) with Bet365 (‘0 Card Handicap’)

Go for goals at the top of League One...

Bury v Scunthorpe

League One, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 Bury games in a row in all comps
  

The bookies make Over 2.5 Goals the least likely outcome in the Under/ Over market here – but again the stats say otherwise...

Scunthorpe are joint-top of our League Stats – League One chart for Over 2.5 Goals, with an 80% strike-rate (8 payouts from 10 games).

While Bury are on a 7-game run for that bet, including 4-1 and a 3-1 wins in their current 5-game winning streak in League One.

This is a top-of-the-table clash with 2nd place Bury a point behind early leaders Scunthorpe. But there’s nothing in the stats that suggests the two frontrunners will cancel each other out...

Scunthorpe have scored in all 5 of their away games, but have kept just one Clean Sheet on the road.

Bury have scored in 4 out of 5 home games, but have kept just one Clean Sheet at Gigg Lane.

Both Teams to Score is as short as 4/6 (1.67) here, but the stats make a stronger case for Over 2.5 Goals – which is available at a bigger price...

Enjoy the weekend football. I’ll be back on Monday with your Stats Review email, looking at the latest trends & results from across the leagues...

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues