Weekend Picks - including the Championship Playoffs...

Friday 12th May 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Top-Rated Match-Ups…
• Weekend Picks – this week’s standout stats and prices...
• Huddersfield formidable at home...
• Spurs strong on the Corners...

Welcome to your Across the Leagues Weekend Picks & Analysis email...

Every weekend I hunt out the best prices for the standout trends identified on our website.

Including my Picks – which are my idea of the best value prices available, having studied the stats... team news... latest match info... and above all, the odds and betting markets on offer…

An injury-time Yellow Card denied us a winning Champions League Pick in midweek, with Juventus’ Mario Mandzukic getting himself booked in the 91st minute...

Until then, Monaco had looked on course for a 6th successive away payout in the Most Cards market. The final score in the game was 2-1 to Juventus (4-1 on aggregate), with the Cards score level at 2 Yellow Cards apiece (20 Bookings Points each).

On we go to the weekend fixtures, where there’s a full Premier League schedule along with the Championship and League Two Playoffs...

• I’ve gone through the Head-2-Head, League Stats and Team Stats on our site on your behalf, to flag up the Top-Rated Match-Ups. These are games where the stats show a good combination for a particular market or outcome. If you like to follow the very strongest stats, then these will be of interest to you

• The prices or options available don’t always make them the most appealing bets for me, though – so see below for my own value Picks

Starting with a look at one of those big games in the Championship...

Fulham v Reading

Championship, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

Playoff, 1st Leg

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in each of Fulham’s last 7 games

Fulham finished top of our Championship table for Both Teams to Score, including a 74% home record. In recent weeks they’ve really become a prolific team in this market, with Both Teams to Score paying out 7 times in a row and in 13 of their last 14 games.

Reading also match-up well in terms of a recent ‘winning streak’ with 6 of their last 7 games seeing a goal at both ends, including 4 in a row on the road.

The fact that this is a Playoff 1st Leg is enough to put me off the odds-on price of 8/11 (1.73) though... Both Teams to Score paid out in just one of the 5 Championship Playoff games last season, and has paid out in just 1 of the 4 Playoff matches (League One) played so far this season.

This game is a good match-up on the team v team stats, but perhaps not with the tension of the Playoffs in mind.

Stoke v Arsenal

Premier League, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

• Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games

Stoke can still finish in the top half of the table, but Arsenal are the team with the bigger incentive to win here – they’re in their annual chase to come in the Top 4 and qualify for the Champions League...

The Gunners have won 4 of their last 5 games, and have won 6 of their last 8 games v sides currently below them in the table. Stoke in comparison have won just one of their last 9 games, losing at home to both Chelsea and Liverpool in that period.

Arsenal are 8/11 (1.73) to keep the momentum going, but if you believe in bogey teams then it’s worth noting that Arsenal have actually failed to win at Stoke in each of their visits in the previous six seasons. With the pressure on, an odds-on price for an Away Win doesn’t appeal too much to me.

I suggested last week that the Playoffs might present us with an opportunity to follow a season-long trend at a better price than normal, and that looks to be just the case in the Championship Playoffs...

Huddersfield formidable at home...

Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday

Championship, Sun 12pm – Sky Sports

Playoff, 1st Leg

• Huddersfield -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 14 of their last 16 home games

Huddersfield are our No.1 ranked Championship team for Most Corners bets this season, largely due to a phenomenal home record that has seen them land that bet in 21 out of 23 games at the John Smith’s Stadium (91%)...

They’ve averaged 3.7 corners per home game more than opponents. And that dominant average is backed up by the fact that Huddersfield have landed -1 Corner Handicap bets (winning 2+ corners more than opponents) in 78% of home games.

On more recent form, Huddersfield -1 Corner Handicap has paid out in 4 of their last 5 at home, and in 14 of their last 16.

Sheffield Wednesday’s corner-winning figures match-up well in terms of backing the home team: Sheff Wed have won the Most Corners in just 8 of 23 away games this season (35%) – and in just 2 of their last 10 league games overall.

Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 7 of Sheff Wed’s last 10 games.

These sides have of course already met home & away in the league this season. Huddersfield lost 0-1 v Sheff Wed but won the Most Corners, 9-4. And lost 2-0 away and won the Most Corners, 5-1. On both occasions, bets on Huddersfield -1 Corner Handicap would also have successfully paid out.

Hudderfield are 4/7 (1.57) for the Most Corners here, but the stats make a strong case for backing the -1 Corner Handicap at the bigger price...

Spurs strong on the Corners...

Tottenham Hotspur v Man Utd

Premier League, Sun 4.30pm – Sky Sports

• Tottenham -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 8 of their last 10 games

Tottenham are ranked No.2 for the season on our Premier League Most Corners stats, and are a reliable team for Corner Handicaps, too...

At home, Spurs are averaging 4.9 corners per game more than opponents.

They have won the Most Corners in 78% home games, and landed -1 Corner Handicap bets (winning 2+ corners more than opponents) in 72% of games, -2 Corner Handicaps (winning 3+ corners more than opponents) in 67% and -3 Corner Handicaps (winning 4+ corners more than opponents) in 61%.

Those are dominant stats and the bookies are leading with a -3 Corner Handicap here. But there are -2 Corner Handicap options available if we shop around, and that is the desirable option for me...

Tottenham have landed the -2 Corner Handicap in 8 of their last 10 games, and in 7 of their last 8 Premier League games at White Hart Lane – including a 14-5 corners win in a 2-0 victory over Arsenal last time out at home.

Man Utd’s away Most Corners record is 47%, and they were out-cornered 3-8 by Spurs in the reverse fixture back in December.

Tottenham have won 13 Premier League home games in a row, but have only won 3 of their last 10 meetings with Man Utd. And after a 1-0 defeat at West Ham last weekend – I’d trust Spurs to land this Corner Handicap more than the 8/11 (1.73) Home Win...

Enjoy the football.

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a stats update, and a look at the midweek fixtures which include several important Premier League games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues